HeadtoHeadFootball -
  • Home
  • NFL
  • NFL STANDINGS
  • STATISTICS
  • Soccer
  • Place Bet
  • Contact Us
HeadtoHeadFootball -
Home
NFL
NFL STANDINGS
STATISTICS
Soccer
Place Bet
Contact Us
  • Home
  • NFL
  • NFL STANDINGS
  • STATISTICS
  • Soccer
  • Place Bet
  • Contact Us
NFL

Super Bowl LI betting cheat sheet

If you’re betting on Super Bowl LI on Sunday — and since the AGA estimates that Americans will bet $4.7 billion on the game, the chances are pretty good — below is a handy file with all of ESPN Chalk’s content.

From gambling profiles on both teams to Chris Berman’s final “Swami” pick to our 4,500-word betting guide, it’s all here.

Enjoy the game!

Follow Chalk on Twitter, Facebook


Spread: Opened New England -3; now New England -3
Total: Opened 58; now 59

Public consensus pick: 68 percent pick New England


Newsers

Big Super Bowl LI bets began trickling in at sportsbooks on Friday, including a $1 million wager on the underdog Atlanta Falcons. Read »

Americans will stake an estimated $4.7 billion on Sunday’s game between the New England Patriots and underdog Atlanta Falcons, according to numbers released Tuesday by the American Gaming Association. Read »

Vic Beasley Jr. is getting a surprisingly large number of bets to win MVP at 50-1 in Vegas. Read »

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook is offering nearly 400 prop bets on Super Bowl LI. Read »

When the NFL season kicked off in September, sportsbook operator CG Technology had taken more bets on the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl than it had on the Falcons. Read »


Prop bet scorecard

Watching Super Bowl LI on Sunday but don’t want to put any money on the game? Fear not, ESPN Chalk has a printable prop bet scorecard for your Super Bowl party. Printable prop bet scorecard »


Analysis, picks

Ultimate Super Bowl LI betting guide

If you’re betting on Super Bowl LI, this is the file for you. Five of our NFL experts give their opinions on the side (New England -3), total (59) and over 20 proposition bets. Read Insider

Biggest Super Bowl LI bets

Well over $100 million will be wagered on Super Bowl LI this week at Nevada sportsbooks. ESPN Chalk will keep you updated on all of the biggest bets leading up to Sunday’s game. Read »

Swami Sez: Chris Berman’s Super Bowl LI pick

It’s Atlanta’s high-powered offense against Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and New England’s stout D in Super Bowl LI in Houston on Sunday. Which team wins? “The Swami” makes his final pick. Read »

How I’m betting Super Bowl LI

Our resident NFL wiseguy, Rufus Peabody, gives some of his favorite bets for Super Bowl LI, including picks for the game, total and six prop bets. ReadInsider

  • Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels are one win from their second Super Bowl title together as a QB-coordinator pairing. These are a few of the plays they’ll rely on versus the Falcons on Super Sunday.

  • Dion Lewis’ run-after-the-catch skills and Vic Beasley’s ability to pressure Tom Brady without having to blitz figure to have a big impact on the outcome of Super Bowl LI.

1 Related

Bookmaker roundtable: Super Bowl LI line moves, sharp bets and props

Four of the top bookmakers in Las Vegas reveal the biggest bets they’ve taken, line moves, and the most popular prop bets for Super Bowl LI. Read »

Vegas oddsmakers, celeb picks for Super Bowl LI

Carrot Top, Jon Lovitz, George Wallace and Jay Kornegay. What do they have in common? They are all part of our Super Bowl LI celebrity picks file. Read »

Betting nuggets to know for Super Bowl LI

Looking to bet on Super Bowl LI this Sunday? Here are the most intriguing betting nuggets you need to know before placing a wager on the game. Read »

How I’m holding a 100-1 ticket on the Falcons

Dating back to Super Bowl 50, Chalk’s Dave Tuley had given the Atlanta Falcons out as his top value bet to win it all this season. Here is the story of how he was able to secure the bet at 100-1 odds. Read »

Is New England the best ATS team in history?

Mackenzie Kraemer takes a look through history to see where this year’s New England Patriots rank in terms of the all-time best ATS teams. Not all of them ended up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Read »

Super Bowl LI betting profile: Atlanta Falcons

How did the Falcons treat bettors this season? We break down the Falcons’ 10-6 ATS mark this season, including a full game-by-game look from a gambling perspective. Read Insider

Super Bowl LI betting profile: New England Patriots

How did the Patriots treat bettors this season? We break down the Patriots’ incredible 15-3 ATS mark this season, including a full game-by-game look from a gambling perspective. Read Insider

Bettors’ guide to all 50 Super Bowls

Need to know which team won and covered Super Bowl XLV? What about Super Bowl VII or XX? Here is a full summary of the against-the-spread results for all 50 previous Super Bowls. Read »


Podcasts

Anita Marks and Dave Tuley break down every betting angle of Super Bowl LI, from the game to the most intriguing prop bets and much more. Listen

Chad Millman and Bob Scucci discuss who the wiseguys are picking in Super Bowl LI. Plus, Evan Young (the Get Your Prop Up In Vegas contest winner) joins the show. Listen

NFL

Super Bowl leftovers from Tom Brady, whose surf instructor is Australian

HOUSTON — This is how New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s interactions with reporters at Super Bowl LI began:

“Big bro,” he said, looking up at a questioner holding a microphone.

“Hey, little brother,” former teammate Willie McGinest, working for NFL Network, responded.

The exchange highlighted how Brady views the Patriots’ locker room. When he arrived in 2000 as a sixth-round draft choice out of Michigan, he looked up to bigger brothers like McGinest, who had been there since 1994.

Now Brady, 39, is the big brother to everyone in the room.

At Super Bowl LI, returning briefly to the role as the little brother, his joy in seeing McGinest kicked off a three-hours-over-four-days stretch in which he filled reporters’ notebooks while wearing his heart on his Under Armour sleeve at times. By McGinest’s second question, which reminded Brady that this would be his last game in his 30s while asking how much longer he wants to play, Brady was laughing.

Call it a tone-setter for the week.

“You taught me; [in] 2004, you said this is what you got to do, and I listened,” Brady said to McGinest. “It’s nice to feel better as the season goes. To be an older player and have the mental experience, and then to also feel great physically, I think it’s a great benefit for me. Hopefully I can keep going. I don’t see any end in sight.”

Much has been written about Brady this week, so let’s empty out the rest of the notebook with some leftover nuggets ahead of the Patriots’ meeting Sunday with the Atlanta Falcons.

Tom Brady has been all over Houston this week, including on the walls Friday at ESPN The Party. Gustavo Caballero/Getty Images for ESPN

McGinest ribs Brady. Before wrapping up his opening interview, McGinest asked Brady, “Did Trump call you?” But McGinest quickly said, “I’m joking, don’t answer that question.” Brady played along. “Not you! You’re not supposed to ask those questions!”

Not into the “best ever” discussion. There were multiple times Brady was asked about others referring to him as the best quarterback of all time, and his answer was the same each time: That’s not why he plays the game. “That was never the reason why I wanted to play this game, to be the best,” he said. “I played football because I love playing with my teammates. The best times are when you’re hanging with your friends on the bus ride, when you’re in the locker room, when you see old teammates and talk about all the great years you’ve had. … It was never to be in some talk/discussion about where you ranked with somebody else. Those have never been important to me.”

Belichick booster. Brady said he has never imagined playing for a head coach other than Bill Belichick. “To me, he’s the greatest coach of all time. He sets a great example for us about dependability, consistency. He brings it every day.”

Bolden booster. Brady called Patriots running back Brandon Bolden “one of the best teammates I’ve ever had. So selfless. He’s got the best personality. He’s the most positive person. He’ll be a friend the rest of my life. … When I think of Brandon, I just think of all the things that have made so many of our players on our Patriots team great. His attitude, his toughness, his belief in himself.”

Never wears his rings. “They just sit [there],” he said of the souvenirs from his four Super Bowl victories, before repeating that his favorite ring is the “next one.”

Career has flown past. Brady never thought about winning Super Bowls, because, he said, “I never thought I’d be playing in the NFL. It just all happened. It’s my 17th year and it’s still happening. I’ve never really taken the time to have any perspective or anything, because I’ve just been caught up in the moment of playing. It’s just gone very fast.”

Learning to compartmentalize. “We all have busy lives. You guys do too. You know that when you deal with one thing, you kind of have to put everything else aside and be focused on what those things are that you’re dealing with. As a football player, a lot of different things come at you at different times. When I’m dealing with football, that’s where my focus needs to be. I think over the years, you learn about compartmentalization. It’s part of what your life has to be. You can’t bring things from the outside to your job, because everyone is counting on you.”

Kraft like a second father. Describing his relationship with Patriots owner Robert Kraft, Brady said, “He has been a second father to me in a lot of ways and given me a lot of advice about things that only someone like he could speak to and relate to.”

Biggest splurge food. Asked by Simone Biles of the U.S. women’s gymnastics team about his favorite splurge food, Brady went with the cheeseburger. “There’s the GOAT,” Brady said, looking in Biles’ direction as he spoke about the greatest of all time. “You’re amazing.”

Has a surf instructor. Who knew? Brady was asked about Australian-born football players and said, “Australians are pretty good surfers. My surf instructor is Australian.”

One word to describe himself. Asked to describe himself in one word, Brady turned to a beat reporter to solicit his opinion. “Consistent,” the reporter said, to which Brady nodded affirmatively and replied: “I’ll go with that.”

Top NBA player to make the transition to NFL. If Brady could add one NBA player to the Patriots’ roster, it would be LeBron James. “Tight end, split him out, throw it up, and he’d come down with a lot of them,” he said.

Catch-22 with experience. Brady hit on the balance of how experience can be good and bad. “There are a lot of 22-year-old golfers who have no fear. They see that big lake in front of the green and they’re trying to go for it in two, and they don’t even see the lake, they just hit it,” he said. “But after you hit a bunch in the lake, you start realizing, ‘Man, I better not hit it in that lake.’ You don’t know those things at 22. But by the time you get to be a certain age, you’re throwing those interceptions on those plays and that starts getting in the way of the risk-taking. You’re always trying to calibrate those things. [Offensive coordinator] Josh [McDaniels] and I talk about that a lot, and he’ll say, ‘What was that?’ And I’ll say, ‘I had a little fear on that.’ And he’ll say, ‘We gotta get rid of that. No fear. This is a no-fear throw.’ For me, so often, I don’t want to make mistakes. And if I do make a mistake in the game, I want to throw the ball in the dirt or miss a receiver in the right spot. We talk about ball possession so much, turnovers, and we have an incredible win percentage when we don’t turn the ball over. But as a quarterback, you can’t kneel on the ball three straight times and punt and think you’re going to win the game. There are inherent risks to every play, and you have to manage those the best you can while still trying to be aggressive. That’s what I’ve learned over the years: when you have to go for it, and when you don’t.”

Playoffs

Sunday, Feb. 5 | 6:30 p.m. ET | Fox

• What you need to know
• FiveThirtyEight predictions
• Quiz: Who should you root for?

His love for the University of Michigan. “It was a tough pick, being from California, to go all the way to the Midwest. But I made a great choice. It’s such a well-rounded school, and to go back there this fall was very special. I never had a chance to do that [at that time of year]. The team has done so great with Coach [Jim] Harbaugh. We just have to figure out how to beat those [Ohio State] Buckeyes. It’s been a thorn in my side.”

Narrowing the focus with 70 plays left. Brady touched on how the offense has 70 plays left in its season, so, he said, “You have to make sure everything there is of critical importance. You don’t often have the luxury of all this extra time, but I think we’ve used it wisely.”

How football challenges him. “You can never master it. It’s always changing. It’s very strategic. It’s all angles, matchups, one-on-ones and decision-making. When you have 11 people trying to execute one play, there are a lot of things that need to happen to execute it at a high level. The only way to be a good team is for everyone to do that. It’s a great sport. Hopefully everyone enjoys it as much as I do.”

Is comfortable with controlling emotions. Asked how he keeps things in check, Brady touched on the crucial balance: “I’ve got a good regulation on my emotions. I know when I need to get amped up, and I know when I need to relax a bit. I think you learn those things. You kind of have to be right on the edge. It’s such an emotional game, you don’t want to be out of control, but you can’t play with no emotion. You strike different chords for different emotions at different times. … It’s a game of outward emotion and inner calm. You have to teeter on both.”

Embracing his place as senior citizen in the locker room. How much harder is it to connect with some of his younger teammates? “I’m a hell of a lot older than most guys in the league now. … I think that’s part of the fun part for me. Your role always changes, and still as a leader and a veteran, I still can express things to my younger teammates and things they’re going through and try to help them through those things, because I’ve been through those things,” he said. “I have a lot of experience, where Tedy [Bruschi] helped me, Rodney [Harrison] helped me, Willie [McGinest] helped me. It may not be like we’re going out together on Friday nights, but it might mean more than that. I might be able to share things that help them out with their career, or their family, because of the experiences I’ve had. I love that. I try to embrace that. That’s a great responsibility.”

NFL

Super wager: $1M bet made on underdog Falcons

LAS VEGAS — Big Super Bowl bets began trickling in at sportsbooks Friday, including a $1 million wager on the underdog Atlanta Falcons.

The New England Patriots remain consensus 3-point favorites in Super Bowl LI and were attracting the majority of the money at most shops. But overall the action was generally balanced, leaving the sportsbooks in a comfortable position heading into the weekend.

Betting on the big game? Here’s the best content from Chalk, ESPN.com’s gambling section.
Chris Berman’s pick »
Ultimate betting guide »
Printable prop bet scorecard »
Biggest Super Bowl LI bets »
Rufus Peabody’s best bets »
Vegas oddsmakers, celebrity picks »
Vegas bookmaker roundtable »

Sportsbook operator CG Technology, which took the $1 million bet on the Falcons +3 on Friday, had slightly more money on Atlanta, even with 61 percent of the point spread bets being on the Patriots. A $200,000 bet on New England, also placed on Friday, helped even out the action, according to CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal.

The million-dollar bettor, an account-based customer at CG Technology, risked $1.1 million to win $1 million on the Falcons covering the three points.

MGM’s sportsbook took a $485,000 bet on the Patriots on Friday, after taking some wagers on the Falcons in the “$200,000 to $300,000” range on Thursday. MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told ESPN on Friday that about 60 percent of the money was on the Patriots at his book.

The Westgate SuperBook was a little more lopsided on the Patriots, with 69 percent of the money on New England as of Saturday morning. But the point spread had not moved off of the Patriots -3, where it opened two weeks ago.

Some shops had increased the juice to New England -3 (-115), meaning bettors would need to risk $115 to win $100 on the Patriots.

“It’s going to take a lot of money to move off of 3,” Frank Kunovic, sportsbook director at Caesars Palace, said.

A lot of money is on the way. Last year, 69 percent of all bets on the Super Bowl at William Hill’s Nevada sportsbook were placed on Saturday and Sunday.

The over/under total was sitting at 59 — the highest ever for a Super Bowl — at most sportsbooks. Like the betting on the point spread, the action was also balanced on the total. Fifty-three percent of the money was on the under at Westgate.

The action was so evenly distributed that several books said the worst-case scenario would be New England winning 31-28, which would cause the spread and the total to result in a push.

“If that’s the score, we will be refunding tickets until 4 a.m.,” Simbal said.

Action also was pouring in on the proposition wagers available, including the coin flip. Kunovic said roughly $100,000 is normally bet on the Super Bowl coin flip each year. As of Saturday morning, 60 percent of the money was on heads.

NFL

Will Jimmy Garoppolo's future lead to Cleveland?

New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went full-on Bill Belichick when his future after Sunday’s Super Bowl was brought up during interviews leading up to the game.

“Well, to be honest, I really haven’t thought about it much,” said Garoppolo on Wednesday. “It’s kind of … not even in the back of my mind. We’re focused on the Falcons this week. It’s a big week for us, biggest of the year, so that’s kind of where my mind is.”

Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had impressive numbers in his two starts early this season, completing 42-of-59 passes for 496 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

When asked earlier in the week about a possible trade during the offseason, Garoppolo merely said, “I haven’t even thought about it to be honest. Sorry.”

There’s nothing to be sorry about, of course.? But Garoppolo might want to start thinking about his future.

Because after the Super Bowl, his name will be floated with rumors involving every team that needs a quarterback. Of course, the Cleveland Browns are one of those teams, and his name already has been bandied about as a possible Browns target.

There’s logic to that thinking.

The Patriots drafted Garoppolo in the second round in 2014. He signed a four-year deal, meaning he is under contract next season, but only for $820,000. This means the Patriots could easily afford to keep him one more season as Tom Brady’s backup.

The problem for New England would be what happens after the 2017 season. Garoppolo could then become a free agent. With Brady showing no signs of slowing down, Garoppolo would probably want to go to a team where he could play, meaning New England would lose him with no compensation.

Given the Patriots drafted Jacoby Brissett in 2016, they might prefer to trade Garoppolo this offseason and get something in return rather than wait a year and lose him for nothing.

Enter the Browns, who need a quarterback and have extra draft picks. If the team wanted to bypass a quarterback in the draft, it could package a couple of its picks and bring Garoppolo to Cleveland. Then, the team could use the rest of its draft picks to fortify its roster.

What would the price for Garoppolo be?

Minnesota gave up first- and fourth-round picks for quarterback Sam Bradford. Kansas City gave up two second-round picks for Alex Smith. The price for Garoppolo would seem closer to the one the Chiefs paid for Smith.

There will be competition. Kyle Shanahan favored Garoppolo in 2014, but the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel. Shanahan will be named coach of the 49ers after the Super Bowl. Chicago also needs a quarterback.

Garoppolo started two games this season when Brady was suspended. However, in the second game he hurt his right shoulder and missed the final two games of Brady’s suspension. One injury does not scream injury prone, but it does raise the question of durability.

Garoppolo had impressive numbers in his two starts, completing 42-of-59 passes for 496 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. His 119 rating ranked fourth in the league after two games. And he threw for 232 yards and three touchdowns in the first half of the game when he got hurt.

Garoppolo is thought of well around the league. The thinking on the draft quarterbacks is that none are ready to play right away. Garoppolo would be.

It’s only logical that he would be prominent on the Browns’ list of possibilities.

Page 1 of 212»

“If you think about it, I've never held a job in my life. I went from being an NFL player to a coach to a broadcaster. I haven't worked a day in my life.”
-John Madden


© 2020 Copyright . All rights reserved | Terms & Conditions | Privacy policy