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Seth Walder
The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX — but just barely, with a cluster of teams close to the reigning champs in terms of ability and chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That’s according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) — our football ratings and projection model — which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.
The Eagles have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl according to the model, the lowest chance the preseason favorite has had to win it all since the model began outputting preseason projections in 2015.
In the preseason, FPI’s overall predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule — along with factors such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.
Ratings evolve as we learn more about each team based on its performance on offense, defense and special teams — accounting for opponent — along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials. Let’s dive into our 2025 forecast and our biggest takeaways.
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Top teams | Super Bowl | NFC North
NFC West | AFC East | AFC North
Who’s last? | No. 1 pick
Eagles top the NFL’s elite group
The NFL’s 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills. These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, meaning none of them would be favored by more than a single point over another on a neutral field. But there’s a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Bills and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.
First look at NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 27, 2025
The common theme between the top five teams? Offensive strength. That’s right, the “defense wins championships” cliché isn’t reflected here. Offense is more stable from game to game and season to season, so teams with the best past quarterback and offensive production are more likely to repeat that success. That’s critical because the point of the FPI is to look ahead, not back. It’s no coincidence that the top five teams also have the five best offenses according to the FPI, albeit in a different order.
But it’s not all offense — the defending champion Eagles are oh-so-slightly in the overall lead because they also have the best defense. With linebacker Zack Baun back to anchor the middle and ascending young talent such as defensive tackle Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philly’s defense sets it apart.
All five teams in the top tier have at least an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that the Super Bowl winner will be one of those five teams. No other team has greater than a 5% chance to win it all.
Best chance to win the Super Bowl
| Rank | Team | Chance | Rank | Team | Chance | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Eagles | 12% | 8 | Chargers | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Chiefs | 11% | 9 | Bengals | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Bills | 10% | 10 | 49ers | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Ravens | 9% | 11 | Packers | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Lions | 8% | 12 | Buccaneers | 3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Commanders | 5% | 13 | Broncos | 3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Rams | 5% | 14 | Vikings | 3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
See the Could we see an Eagles-Chiefs repeat in the Super Bowl?Two of the past three Super Bowls have been between Kansas City and Philadelphia. Will it be three of four? The 4.2% chance of a Super Bowl LIX repeat is the greatest of any combination of teams in our Super Bowl matchup projections, slightly besting the 3.6% chances of Ravens-Eagles and Bills-Eagles matchups. Top combinations are listed below and rounded to the nearest whole number. Most likely Super Bowl LX matchups
When looking at the top 10 most likely Super Bowl combinations, several different NFC teams appear on the list. The Eagles and Lions show up the most, but the Commanders, Rams and 49ers each appeared in one of the most likely combinations. The AFC side of the matchups was dominated by three teams — the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens. Who is the favorite in the loaded NFC North?It’s not a big surprise, but every team in the NFC North ranks in the top half of the FPI ratings. Detroit leads the way at No. 4, followed by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16). If there is a curveball, it’s that Minnesota ranks only 15th after going 14-3 in 2024. But the Vikings relied on their defense — which ranked third in EPA per play — last season while ranking a mediocre 15th on offense. And even though Brian Flores remains as defensive coordinator, defensive success is hard to replicate. Plus, second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is an unknown after missing his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his right knee. While he might possess more upside than last year’s starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy’s downside is almost certainly lower. Therefore, the FPI gives Minnesota only a 19% chance to win the division and a 43% chance to reach the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bears moved in the opposite direction. After Chicago finished 24th in total efficiency (EPA per play adjusted for garbage time) last season, the FPI sees it as a minimally above-average team entering 2025. The reasons for optimism are obvious. The Bears brought in new coach Ben Johnson and added significant talent to their offensive line, and quarterback Caleb Williams now has a season of NFL experience — even if that experience was shaky. So, who comes out ahead? The Lions lead the way with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. But they all have a chance, as even the Bears are at 15%. Can the 49ers bounce back and win the NFC West?FPI narrowly has the Rams as the best team in the NFC West. But the favorite to win the division? That would (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams’ 34%. Why the discrepancy? Strength of schedule. No team enters 2025 with an easier slate than the 49ers, who not only get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the rest of their division, but also the Giants, Browns and Bears due to finishing last in the division in 2024. In comparison, the Rams must face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as part of their first-place schedule. That is enough to give San Francisco the edge over Los Angeles in the projections. It also indicates the FPI’s belief in the 49ers bouncing back after a brutally disappointing 6-11 campaign. A big part of that faith is the betting market believing that the 49ers were hampered by injuries to key players last season — including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, running back Christian McCaffrey and offensive lineman Trent Williams — and that they should be dangerous if healthy. Editor’s Picks2 Related Can any of the other AFC East teams challenge the Bills?They could, but no individual team is particularly likely to do so. Buffalo is the only AFC East team with a positive FPI rating and would be considered more than a four-point favorite over each of the other three on a neutral field. And the Bills have a 65% chance to win their division — the highest of any team in the NFL by a hefty margin. Of course, that leaves more than a 1-in-3 chance that someone else will win the AFC East. That’s mainly due to the uncertainty of football — the FPI might be overrating the Bills or underrating someone else, or one of the other teams could luck into the division title despite not being as good as Buffalo overall. But that variance will always be there. In the meantime, the Bills are again in as good a position as it gets to win their division. Will the Bengals return to the playoffs?Probably! Cincinnati’s 2024 campaign disappointingly ended in the regular season despite quarterback Joe Burrow ranking third in QBR, the best performance of his career. But defense held the Bengals back, as they ranked 23rd in EPA allowed per play and particularly struggled against the run, ranking 30th in EPA in defending rushing plays. But the lack of year-to-year continuity that happens with good defenses also happens with weaker units. Cincinnati replaced defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which increases the FPI’s uncertainty on that side of the ball. Ultimately, the model forecasts the Bengals to have an average defense, which moves them to No. 7 in the overall rankings. The Ravens are by far the most likely AFC North champion at 54%, and the Bengals are next at 29%. But Cincinnati has a 60% chance to reach the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff team in the AFC after missing the postseason the past two seasons. Best playoff odds in each conference
Who ranks last?The FPI’s 32nd-ranked team is not the Titans, Browns or Giants. It’s the Saints, who find themselves at the bottom of the rankings after the Cleveland on the clock?The Browns are the most likely team to end the season holding the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. Much of that is due to a quarterback room comprising Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule. The Giants are rated slightly above the Browns in the FPI and have the second-highest chance to earn the No. 1 pick at 12%, due to facing the league’s most difficult schedule. The Titans, Saints and Jets follow with 11%, 10% and 10% chances, respectively.
CHARLOTTE, N. C. — Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette laughed when his first news conference of offseason workouts began with a question about the difference between a thoroughbred and standardbred horse. Legette, who has a passion for horses, understood it as an attempt to see if he is close to having a horse ready to compete in the Kentucky Derby, which he attended earlier this month. The simple answer was no. Standardbreds, like Legette owns, are best suited for harness racing, nothing like the sleek, powerful thoroughbreds who compete to win the Derby. “I’ve got to get some bloodline from some of the horses that already competed in the Derby if I want to do that,” Legette said of his long-term goal of competing in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Knowing that adding more talent improves your chances of winning, Legette can appreciate why quarterback Bryce Young said it was “music to my ears” when Carolina used the No. 8 pick of the 2025 NFL draft to add Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan a year after trading into the first round to select Legette at No. 32. “We’re trying to win games,” Legette said. “Anytime you add a masterpiece like that to what we’re trying to build, that’s great.”
Instead of being threatened or looking at the selection of McMillan as a knock on him after a rough rookie season, Legette looked at it with the same enthusiasm as Young, who called TMac “a great pick.” “I feel like it’s going to be a problem either way,” Legette said of whether he or McMillan will become the No. 1 receiver. “I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a one or two. I feel like it’s either side they look at, they’re going to have to deal with both sides.” Young agreed. Instead of focusing on what McMillan brings to the offense that Legette doesn’t, he talked about how the entire offense will benefit from having both players. “Within the system there are so many wrinkles and so many little things that we can build off each other,” he said. Legette’s rookie season ended with a lot questions, much like Young did after his rookie run as the top pick of the 2023 draft. The questions for Young persisted in 2024 after he was benched following an 0-2 start with historically bad statistics. They quieted when he turned things around as the starter during the second half of the season. Young enters his third campaign with a renewed confidence in himself and from the organization. Having McMillan paired with Legette is part of the reason why coach Dave Canales believes Young will take his game to the next level in 2025. There were signs of that Tuesday when Carolina went through 11-on-11 drills for the first time in OTAs. “There were some great plays out there, some great timing on the throws, but also just the level of comfort we talked about with the offense, knowing the words, making the tweaks and being a part of that process,” Canales said. “We want it to become the Bryce Young offense, become this collective thing and get the chemistry going.”
Young already sees more confidence from Legette, who is focused on making catches with his hands more than his body, something McMillan excels at. Legette finished last season with seven drops, tied for 13th most in the NFL. His catch percentage of 58.3 was 22nd lowest. “Me getting open, that wasn’t a problem,” Legette said. “It was just really honing in to really catching the ball on the dropped passes.” Canales can already “feel the joy” coming from Legette and sees the added bounce in the receiver’s step after offseason foot surgery. “What I see is a year into the system, just the speed that he’s playing with now, the level of comfort he has with what we’re doing,” Canales said. “When I see him smiling, I know he’s in a good space.” Canales couldn’t say enough about the way Legette and McMillan have meshed. “It’s a great fit,” Canales said. “Even routes on air. They’ll catch a ball, put it away, burst and then they’re looking for the other one and throwing it across the field and playing catch.” Best of NFL Nation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
