As fantasy football draft season inches closer and closer, it’s time for our annual predictions of sleepers, busts and breakout players. Interpretations of the terms can vary for each, but here are the definitions for our purposes:
• Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position (ADP) in 2025. • Bust: A highly regarded player who will underperform in 2025, relative to his ADP/ranking. • Breakout: A player who will put up career-best numbers in 2025 and make a huge impact.
Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Tyler Fulghum, Eric Karabell, Eric Moody and Field Yates each contributed a sleeper and a bust for the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, as well as their analysis and insights on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.
Editor’s note: This story will be updated throughout the preseason.
Jump to: Sleepers | Busts | Breakouts
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Bowen: At 6-foot-1, 224 pounds with straight-line acceleration and vision, Kaleb Johnson is an easy fit for the outside zone scheme in Pittsburgh. He had 21 rushes of 20 or more yards last season at Iowa — the second most in the country behind Ashton Jeanty — and he can post receiving numbers on swings, screens and unders. Johnson will share the backfield with Jaylen Warren, but the early-down volume in a run-heavy offense can push him into the RB2 ranks.
Karabell: Some might fade Travis Hunter in fantasy because of concern with potential snaps as a two-way player, but the Jaguars seem more likely to use him on offense rather than at cornerback. Hunter offers immediate WR2 upside, with a competent QB in Trevor Lawrence and a legitimate WR1 in Brian Thomas Jr. drawing more attention, and at an odd fraction of the cost according to early ADP figures (Thomas 19.0, Hunter 68.6).
Clay: The 10th pick in April’s draft, Colston Loveland has a ton of competition for targets in Chicago, but he very well could demand a generous share right out of the gate, should he prove the real deal. Working with new coach Ben Johnson and second-year QB Caleb Williams, Loveland certainly could work his way to lineup lock status during his rookie campaign. Rookie tight ends have generally struggled to make Year 1 impacts, but times might be changing, considering a first-year player paced the position each of the past two seasons (Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers).
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year, so you’re likely drafting him at his fantasy ceiling. Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
Busts
Dopp:Baker Mayfield‘s ADP is between QB6 and QB7, which means you’re likely drafting him at his ceiling (unless you think he’ll best Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson this season). With offensive coordinator Liam Coen now the head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars and the questions surrounding Chris Godwin (injury) and Mike Evans (age), I’d rather draft someone with a little more headroom in their value.
Fulghum:James Cook screams regression candidate in 2025, especially with his ADP hovering around RB10 to RB12. Despite scoring a combined nine total TDs in his first two seasons, Cook exploded in 2024 with 18 total TDs — including a league-leading 16 on the ground. With Josh Allen continuing to dominate goal-line work and second-year RB Ray Davis earning more opportunities, Cook’s touchdown rate relative to his volume of touches is simply not sustainable.
Yates:DJ Moore is an excellent player who has shown himself to be a fantasy star. I’m bullish on QB Caleb Williams under Ben Johnson’s tutelage and think this offense could make a massive leap, but Moore’s outlook has me a little uneasy. The Bears selected tight end Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden III with their first two picks in the draft, adding two more pass-catchers to an offense that is already banking on a breakout year from second-year wideout Rome Odunze. While it’s easy to imagine Moore taking on an Amon-Ra St. Brown role under Johnson, it’s also possible the offense just has more balance overall, à la Detroit in 2024 (when St. Brown was a slightly steadier weekly option). Moore and Williams didn’t build as seamless a chemistry as I expected last season.
Moody: Kansas City’s Rashee Rice is being drafted as a top-20 WR despite major red flags. He’s coming off LCL surgery and faces a potential suspension (though one isn’t expected in 2025) and serious target competition from Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce. Rice flashed elite usage early last season (36% target share in three full games), but that production came during a stretch when Brown was injured and Worthy was still getting acclimated to the league (RB Isiah Pacheco also was sidelined). With just four career WR1 weekly finishes and no proven production in a full-strength offense, Rice’s ADP carries considerable risk.
Ashton Jeanty should enjoy success right out of the gate in a feature-back role for the Raiders. Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Breakouts
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: I’ll take the layup. The No. 6 pick in April’s draft, Jeanty is easily the top fantasy prospect in this rookie class following a dominant tenure at Boise State. With 33-year-old Raheem Mostert his top threat for touches, Jeanty is positioned for a feature-back role right out of the gate in Las Vegas. An elite playmaker with a three-down skill set, Jeanty has the upside to be an elite fantasy football running back. — Clay
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: Maye produced relevant fantasy numbers as a rookie, despite not starting a game until October, burdened by the lack of any semblance of game-breakers surrounding him and dealing with an incompetent coaching staff. That changes this season, with proven WR Stefon Diggs and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels among the noteworthy additions. Maye adds value with his legs and, with a little help, could easily perform at a QB1 level. — Karabell
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: The Bears upgraded Williams’ head coach/playcaller, offensive line and pass-catchers in the draft and free agency. With Ben Johnson expected to bring a QB-friendly system that revived Jared Goff’s career in Detroit, Williams is poised to become the first QB in Bears franchise history to exceed 4,000 passing yards and/or 30 TDs in a season. Don’t forget about his untapped rushing upside, as well (400-plus rushing yards in each of his past two college seasons). — Fulghum
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs: Rice has already “broken out,” but he hasn’t shown the consistency we need to see in fantasy. There was concern about a suspension to start this season, but it appears any potential penalty will be pushed back another year, which means Rice should be right back to being a top-15 WR. When healthy, he appeared to take over the role of security blanket that Travis Kelce has dominated for years in this Chiefs offense, and that role should only grow stronger with another year under his belt. Rice is a top-15 WR who has WR1 upside with a WR2 ADP. — Dopp
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears: A top-15 wide receiver in end zone targets and average depth of target as a rookie, Odunze should emerge as a more consistent member of an improving Bears offense in 2025. The arrival of Ben Johnson, as well as the continued growth of quarterback Caleb Williams, should only help Odunze’s breakout prospects. He is a sizable target with explosive ability and among the highest statistical ceilings at the position. — Cockcroft
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers: McConkey finished top 20 in receptions and receiving yards as a rookie, so it can reasonably be argued that he broke out in 2024. But it’s his final seven games last season that have me most enthused. After posting just one game over 80 receiving yards in his first nine outings, McConkey reached at least 80 in six of his final seven games, catching at least five passes in all of them and hauling in three 40-plus-yard grabs (compared to just one in his first nine games). He’s the clear top receiving option with an excellent quarterback, and his role and usage should soar even further this season, giving him top-10 receiver upside. — Yates
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions: Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, and he averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game, buoyed by four games of 22-plus points. Despite a lack of consistent end zone targets (only four last season), Williams’ electric play speed and route deployment can produce breakout weeks in one of the league’s top scoring offenses. And with a bump in volume, Williams could jump into the WR2 mix. — Bowen
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills: Coleman has a clear path to a starting role in a high-powered Josh Allen offense and last season flashed serious big-play ability as a rookie. Despite missing four games, Coleman hauled in 12 passes of 20-plus yards and averaged 19.2 yards per reception, the third-highest mark in the league among players with at least 40 targets. With improved health and no true backup at X receiver, Coleman is positioned to make a second-year leap. — Moody
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: Many expected Harrison to emerge on the pro scene with a bang, but his underwhelming rookie season landed more like a thud. After scoring four touchdowns in his first four games, Harrison scored only four more the rest of the season, and his catch percentage (53.4%) was lowest among all rookie wide receivers. But his talent and pedigree are unchanged and lessons learned from Year 1 could go a long way toward making 2025 his breakout season. Plus, outside of Trey McBride, he faces little competition for targets. — Bell
Shwetha Surendran is writer in ESPN’s investigative and enterprise unit.
An Ohio woman has sued Buffalo Bills first-round draft pick Maxwell Hairston, accusing him of sexually assaulting her in 2021 when they both attended the University of Kentucky.
According to the lawsuit, filed Tuesday, Hairston met the woman, who identified herself as Rebecca Hendryx, in early 2021 when they were living in the same dorm.
That March, the lawsuit alleges, Hairston went to Hendryx’s room without being invited and followed her into her room after she declined to hang out with him. After Hendryx “[expressed] … her non-interest in engaging in sexual intercourse with him several times,” Hairston “forcefully removed” her pajama shorts and sexually assaulted her, according to the lawsuit.
Hairston, who has not been charged with a crime, and his agent didn’t immediately respond to messages seeking comment Wednesday.
A spokesperson for the Bills declined to comment, referring to general manager Brandon Beane’s comments in April after the team selected Hairston with the 30th pick in the NFL draft. At the time, Beane said that the team “fully investigated” an allegation of sexual assault from 2021, that Hairston was “an impeccable kid” and “it doesn’t seem to be anything there.”
According to the lawsuit, Hendryx reported the alleged incident to law enforcement “within hours” and received a sexual assault nurse examiner (SANE) exam at the hospital after speaking to police. The lawsuit does not specify the outcome of Hendryx’s police report or SANE exam, and Hendryx’s lawyers declined to provide any law enforcement or university documents they may have “due to certain information must be kept confidential.”
A spokeswoman for the Lexington police said the department did not have a report matching a sexual assault allegation against Hairston. A spokesperson for the Fayette County Sheriff’s Office did not immediately respond to requests for comment Wednesday.
Dani Jaffe, a spokeswoman for the University of Kentucky and university police, said she could not comment on the lawsuit but that “sexual assault allegations are thoroughly investigated and can involve police, Title IX, student conduct officials and other legal entities. If and when charges are warranted, or if a student is found to have violated our Code of Student Conduct, such charges and disciplinary measures are filed and pursued aggressively to protect our students.”
Hendryx transferred from the university in 2021, according to the lawsuit.
ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg contributed to this report.
Adam Teicher has covered the Kansas City Chiefs for more than 30 seasons. He joined ESPN in 2013 for the launch of NFL Nation.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Travis Kelce ended the 2024 NFL season with career lows in yards and touchdowns — 823 and three, respectively. He looked like he might be nearing the end of one of the greatest tight end careers in NFL history. At 35 years old, an advanced age for his position, he often looked average on the field — other than a vintage Kelce stretch of games during the middle of the season.
Then he caught seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Kansas City Chiefs’ divisional playoff win over the Houston Texans, single-handedly dragging an otherwise lethargic passing game into the AFC Championship Game.
“We’ve all seen it over the last few years,” general manager Brett Veach said. “There are periods throughout the season where you’re like, ‘This might be it.’ But when the games are the most important and the lights are the brightest, he finds it somewhere.”
With Kelce turning 36 in October, the Chiefs expect that in 2025 he will still be the player they know well.
“The great ones know how to find it,” Veach said. “They know where it’s buried, and they know how to access it. And they can’t access it at that age week in and week out, but when they need it, they know how to find it.”
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Even if his other numbers weren’t up to Kelce’s standard last year, he still caught 97 passes, tied for the fourth-highest total of his career. He still ranked fifth in yardage among tight ends, behind Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle and Jonnu Smith. But that happened during a season when Rice and Brown played in only a small fraction of the games.
If they stay healthy, along with Worthy and Gray, Kelce’s streak of leading the Chiefs in catches and yards will likely come to an end at three. That wouldn’t necessarily mean the Chiefs look at his season as a disappointment.
“His numbers won’t be the same,” Veach said. “You have to acknowledge … that he’s older. He’s not 28 years old. But everything runs more efficiently when that guy is out there. He’s still going to demand the attention or at least the occasional eyes of primary defenders just because of his name and his legacy.
“Having Travis on the field makes us better. I don’t know if I look at it in terms of expectations for yardage or touchdowns or catches. When he’s on the field, he makes us better. He’s also a guy who makes the people around him better.”
Jordan Raanan covers the New York Giants for ESPN and can be heard hosting on ESPN Radio. Raanan joined ESPN in 2016.
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — Former New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul doesn’t hesitate. He owns that Fourth of July accident 10 years ago that cost him “2½” fingers — the same as he does each of his 94.5 career sacks.
He has no choice but to be reminded of it when putting on a dress shirt and reaching for a button — or when he reminisces about a career he hopes is not over.
“I wouldn’t want my kids to go through something I went through. … I learned from it,” Pierre-Paul told ESPN in a phone conversation last week. “At the end of the day, I’m a big person, but this happened to me. It could happen to anybody.
“So put it out there. What’s to be embarrassed about? There’s nothing to be embarrassed about. It’s just you live and learn from it.”
Pierre-Paul was lighting fireworks he’d purchased for a neighborhood party in Deerfield Beach, Florida, that Independence Day evening in 2015. He was having trouble lighting the last batch, and when it finally discharged, it was at the cost of Pierre-Paul’s right hand.
He remembers being on the verge of fainting because he was losing so much blood while being driven by a friend to nearby Broward Health North Hospital. After seeing the insides of his hand under the light inside the hospital, he told doctors, “Don’t cut my hand off!”
Pierre-Paul had his right index finger amputated after the accident. Despite wondering whether his Giants career was over, he managed to return for eight games in the 2015 season. Al Bello/Getty Images
Pierre-Paul had his right index finger amputated. Despite wondering whether his Giants career was over, he managed to return for eight games in the 2015 season. He played two more seasons in New York, logging a total of 16.5 sacks in the three years that followed his injury.
“In absolutely no way did we think he would play,” former Giants vice president of player personnel Marc Ross said. “He’s a medical marvel, really.”
Pierre-Paul went on to have a double-digit sack season in 2018 with the Editor’s Picks
Pierre-Paul’s dad, Jean, lost his sight not long after his son was born. It hasn’t stopped him from living a happy and productive life. Pierre-Paul said that helped keep everything in perspective following the fireworks accident.
Now, it’s about learning from his mistakes and passing that knowledge down to the next generation. His kids don’t play with fireworks. If he has anything to say about it, they never will.
“I tell [Josiah] straight up, ‘You got 10 fingers, right?'” Pierre-Paul said. “He says, ‘Yes.’ I said, ‘Well, you want to stay with them? Once they’re gone, you can’t replace them.'”
Pierre-Paul continues to do speaking engagements and talks about the dangers of fireworks. He views that as part of his purpose.
He said he’s been talking with the cousin of former teammate and NFL cornerback Marcus Peters after he had a similar fireworks accident and lost four fingers. Peters connected the two and they now talk regularly, Pierre-Paul says.
“My message to kids is you never know how life is going to go,” he said. “Don’t put yourself in a predicament that you’re going to regret later.”
Pierre-Paul said there is no regret on his part. But he does sometimes wonder what his career would have been like if the accident had not happened. Would he have more than 100 career sacks? (He currently sits at 94.5.) More Pro Bowls and Super Bowls?
Getting to 100 sacks matters to Pierre-Paul, who is still training to play despite not being with a team in 2024. He says he works as hard now at 36 as he did a decade ago, waiting for that call from a team willing to give him a chance.
Once unable to hang straight from a pull-up bar, he says he’s now doing 25 to 30 pull-ups easily.
Pierre-Paul still believes he can help a team, that he can be a veteran closer.
“I can still do it,” he said.
If he had the opportunity to do it for a Giants team that drafted him in the first round out of USF in 2010, it would be something he welcomed — a full-circle moment.
“I think that’ll be dope. Tremendous,” Pierre-Paul said. “To go back somewhere where my career started … the fans know me and know the type of player that I am. I’ll always be that type of player and just give ’em everything I got, which I know it’ll be more than enough.”
The accident a decade ago is something Pierre-Paul carries with him, but he remains focused on the opportunity to try to get back and be the best version of his self.
“I got 7½ fingers. You’re still living,” he said. “You get an opportunity every day to take that deep breath, taste that nice drink you want to taste? Getting a glass of milk or having coffee in the morning, whatever is your thing.
“You get another chance of it every day. So why not be great at what you got going on?”
