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NFL Betting recap: Week 9 is revenge of the underdogs led by Panthers, Vikings wins

Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season was a historic one for betting favorites, as they went 11-2 against the spread to tie the best ATS mark for favorites in any one week since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. In Week 9, the underdogs got their revenge in a big way.

First, the Carolina Panthers went to Wisconsin and stunned the Green Bay Packers with a 16-13 victory on a last-second field goal. The Panthers came into the contest as 13.5-point underdogs, per ESPN BET lines, making their outright win the largest for an underdog this season and the largest in the NFL since 2023. It also served as the second-largest upset win in franchise history and the largest since 2000.

Carolina has been an underdog in all of its games this season, but is now 6-3 ATS and has won five of those games outright.

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The Packers, meanwhile, have now been on the losing end of two of the largest outright upsets of the season. Back in Week 3, the Pack lost to the All of ESPN. All in one place.

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“Favorites are often popular and after going 11-2 ATS last week bettors are backing the chalk once again in Week 9,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said in an email before Sunday’s action. “The sportsbook will be looking for a few underdogs to win outright on Sunday.”

As with most large favorites, the Packers’ and Lions’ money lines were both popular parlay selections, ranking first and fifth respectively at ESPN BET. The Indianapolis Colts, who also lost Sunday, were the fourth-most popular money line parlay selection.

Overall, through the Sunday late afternoon games, underdogs went 8-4 ATS and 5-7 outright in Week 9.

Odds and ends

  • Week 9 saw each of the top three Super Bowl favorites entering Sunday lose: the Kansas City Chiefs (+475), Lions (+600) and Packers (+700), per ESPN BET odds.

  • The Denver Broncos entered their road game against the Houston Texans as 2.5-point underdogs. In the Super Bowl era, teams that entered a game with a 6-2 or 7-1 record as underdogs against sub-.500 opponents were 2-6 SU and 3-4-1 ATS, according to ESPN Research. Denver defied the odds, pulling out an 18-15 victory.

  • The Tennessee Titans didn’t win their game, but they did cover the +9.5 spread in their 27-20 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. They “improved” to 5-21 ATS since the start of last season, still the worst mark in the league over that period.

  • Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills got the better of Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs with a 28-21 home win on Sunday. During the contest, Allen jumped from a second-place tie at +450 to a leading +175 for MVP, while Mahomes fell from +150 to +450. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye maintained his position in second place (+400), according to ESPN BET odds.

  • Overs and unders split a perfectly balanced six games a piece headed into Sunday Night Football.

  • For the first time all season, no contestants failed to submit their picks for the $1,000 per entry Circa Survivor contest. The implied value per entry heading into Sunday was $9,100, per Circa.