Every NFL team's record vs. the spread and Week 3 preview
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Kyle SoppeESPN
It’s rare that bookmakers show a sign of weakness, but we’ve got a trend to monitor as you prepare for Week 3, the last weekend of the month. In September games since the beginning of last season, under tickets have cashed 78.6% of the time when the over/under is set under 45 points. That number is down a considerable amount from the September rate over the previous decade (49.1%) and got me to thinking – do sportsbooks underestimate just how bad the bad teams are?
The thought behind that hypothesis is that low totals often involve at least one bad offense and, in this era of professional football, a bad offense is more often than not a bad team. This train of thinking gained some steam when I looked at games in which a team was favored by more than a touchdown.
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So we’ve got big favorites covering and low totals going under. To me, that reflects an underestimation of dominance. Now, it is worth noting, that overs connected on 53.9% of games in that low total window after September ended last season, so it’s possible that this “flaw” is rectified sooner than later. Understanding that, we do have another week of September and we have plenty of low total spots in Week 3. There aren’t many big favorites (the Bengals and Rams are both road teams favored by more than a field goal), but if the books are underestimating how bad some of these offenses are … two of them playing in the same game (Texans/Bears, Falcons/Seahawks, Cowboys/Giants), feels favorable if you’re buying this trend.
Here are our ATS standings, matchups and betting nugget for each team, updated weekly.
NFL ATS trends
| ATS TRENDS | W-L-T | PCT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away teams | 14-17-1 | 45.2% | ||
| Home teams | 17-14-1 | 54.8% | ||
| Favorites | 13-17-1 | 43.3% | ||
| Underdogs | 17-13-1 | 56.7% | ||
| Away favorites | 5-8-1 | 44.4% | ||
| Away underdogs | 9-8 | 52.9% | ||
| Home favorites | 8-9 | 47.1% | ||
| Home underdogs | 8-5-1 | 55.6% | ||
| TOTAL TRENDS | COUNT | PCT | ||
| Over | 10 | 31.3% | ||
| Under | 21 | 65.6% | ||
| Push | 1 | 3.1% |
Thursday
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Steelers ATS: 1-0-1
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Steelers: Over their past four road divisional games, the Steelers are 3-0 ATS when the under hits and 0-1 when the over comes through.
Browns ATS: 1-1
O/U: 2-0
What we know about the Browns: The Browns have dropped four straight ATS against the division and have failed to cover in each of their past five against the Black and Gold.
Sunday, 1p games
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Bills ATS: 2-0
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Bills: The Bills failed to cover three of Josh Allen’s first four starts on short rest, but they’ve covered four of five since. Buffalo finds itself in such a spot.
Dolphins ATS: 2-0
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Dolphins: Under tickets have cashed in six of Tua Tagovailoa’s nine divisional starts (including both starts against the Bills last season).
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Bengals ATS: 0-2
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Bengals: Cincy has covered in 16 of their past 17 outright wins.
Jets ATS: 1-1
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Jets: The Jets have failed to cover in five of their past six games as a home underdog (lost by 15 in Week 1 as the host of 6.5-point favorite Baltimore).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Lions ATS: 2-0
O/U: 2-0
What we know about the Lions: Detroit has failed to cover six of their past eight divisional road games. That said, they broke away from their struggles in their last such game, a 2-point loss as a 10-point underdog in Minnesota (Week 5).
Vikings ATS: 1-1
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Vikings: The Vikings haven’t seen consecutive divisional games go under the total since December of 2019. They played Green Bay in Week 1 and the game went under by 16.5 points.
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears
Texans ATS: 2-0
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Texans: Dating back to last season, the Texans have covered three straight games. They haven’t covered four in-a-row since the final three games of 2015 and the first game of 2016.
Bears ATS: 1-1
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Bears: Baby steps. After failing to cover five straight at Solider Field, Da Bears have covered consecutive home games (won outright in Week 1 as a 6.5-point underdog against the 49ers).
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Chiefs ATS: 1-1
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Chiefs: Be careful in blindly backing Patrick Mahomes on extended rest: the books are well aware. The Chiefs are just 7-6-1 ATS in the Mahomes era when having at least seven days off (unders are 7-6 in those games).
Colts ATS: 0-2
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Colts: The Colts have failed to cover four straight games and have seen each of their past seven games go under the total.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Saints ATS: 0-2
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Saints: The Saints have covered six of their past eight games in Carolina, but bookmakers have been handicapping those matchups pretty accurately. Of those eight games, six saw a team cover by less than a touchdown.
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