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NFL

How should the NFL fix overtime? We graded seven ideas to tweak the format

No one thinks about NFL overtime until it happens, which isn’t that often in the grand scheme of things and is usually pretty tame when it does. But all hell breaks loose when the format impacts the outcome of a playoff game, as it did in January’s divisional matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. And so here we are in March, once again trying to figure out if there is a better way to do it.

The NFL tweaked its overtime rules in 2010, 2012 and 2017, putting the current debate right on schedule. At issue is whether it’s still tenable for a team to win on the first possession of overtime, as the Chiefs did while Bills quarterback Josh Allen and his offense stood on the sideline and watched without getting a chance to match.

The existing rule allows a team to win on the first possession if it scores a touchdown. Otherwise, both teams get a possession, and the game is either decided by sudden death or ends in a tie (unless it’s a postseason game). The Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles have combined on a proposal that mandates a possession for each team, regardless of what happens on the first possession. The Tennessee Titans have proposed requiring a 2-point conversion after a touchdown for a team to win on its first possession.

The league’s competition committee has yet to weigh in on either proposal, or make any of its own, as the owners prepare to gather next week for their annual meeting in Palm Beach, Florida. NFL rule changes require approval from at least 24 owners.

2 Related

A possible compromise is to focus on a rule change for the playoffs only. Since the current requirement for an opening-possession touchdown was instituted for the 2012 regular season, teams winning the coin toss have won 50% of the time, according to league data. That number has ticked up a bit to 54% since the league shortened overtime from a maximum of 15 minutes to 10 in 2017, but there has been a big jump in the postseason. Since the current format was implemented, seven of 12 overtime postseason games have been won on the opening possession, and 10 of those 12 were won by the team that won the coin toss.

Part of the issue is that the NFL has tried to balance various and competing priorities for overtime. Is it trying to optimize fairness? Entertainment? Does it want to stay true to regulation formats? Should postseason games have a separate set of rules?

What about avoiding ties? Since reducing overtime to 10 minutes in 2017, the NFL has had five ties in 64 overtime games, a rate of 7.8%. From 2000 to 2016, there were a total of seven ties in 270 overtime games (2.6%).

What follows is an evaluation — pros, cons and grades — of the majority of overtime possibilities, some of which

“I personally don’t think ties in the regular season are as big of a deal,” he said.

On the other hand, NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent said: “If there was an appetite [for change], you want to be consistent. … You don’t want to have one set of rules for the regular season and another for the playoffs, but that’s just me.”

Jump to:
Mandatory possession | Two-point tries
Spot and choose | No sudden death
Shootout | No coin toss | No clock

TEAM-PROPOSED CHANGES

Mandatory possession

What would happen: It would guarantee each team a possession in overtime, no matter what happened on the opening possession. If one team has a point advantage after the first two possessions, that team wins. If the score remains tied, play would continue for up to 10 minutes, with the next score winning.

Pros: It eliminates the possibility of a one-possession overtime period in which the loser of the coin toss never plays offense. That makes overtime inherently fairer.

Cons: It makes some games longer than they otherwise would have been, a factor not only for the health of players but also for the diminishing entertainment value of longer games. It also lowers the impact of poor defense on the opening possession, and ties remain a possibility.

Grade: B+. This proposal has a good combination of increased fairness and minimal departure from the regulation vibe of a game. And while it could add an extra possession to some games, the game would still be shorter than if teams played an entire overtime period without sudden death.

play

2:21

Stephen A. Smith voices his disagreement with the NFL’s overtime rules after Jeff Saturday says he wouldn’t change them.


Mandatory possession, unless a 2-point conversion on first score

What would happen: A team could win on the opening possession of overtime by scoring a touchdown and then converting a 2-point attempt. Otherwise, a first-possession touchdown would still lead to a kickoff and the opposing team getting its own possession for a chance to tie it up or win outright.

Pros: It’s harder for a team to win a one-possession overtime. The three-year NFL average of conversion rates for 2-point attempts is 48.2%.

Cons: It reduces but does not eliminate the possibility of a one-possession overtime victory. It also introduces a potentially significant advantage for teams that are well equipped or otherwise excel at 2-point conversions. The Titans, who are sponsoring the proposal, have a strong power running game that makes it difficult for defenses to account for pass plays. Since hiring coach Mike Vrabel in 2018, they rank No. 10 in the NFL in 2-point conversion rate (58.3%).

Grade: C. This proposal is overtime purgatory. It doesn’t solve the issue it addresses, and it introduces a new factor to consider in the level of fairness. It might work well for the Titans, but it seems like it would have a net neutral impact.

OTHER POTENTIAL IDEAS

Spot and choose

What would happen: The winner of the overtime coin toss would have a new decision to make. Instead of choosing whether to kick off or receive, the coin toss winner could make one of two choices. It could decide where the ball would be spotted, with the loser of the coin toss choosing whether to play offense or defense first. Or it could choose to play offense or defense, and allow the loser to spot the ball.

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Pros: This adds strategy and lowers the impact of luck as a factor in determining the opening possession, in theory making it fairer. Also, it would potentially be more entertaining.

Cons: Ultimately, it would lead to homogenous coin-toss decisions. Smart teams would identify the yard line where neither team would have an advantage — probably around the 13-15-yard line — and the coin-toss winner would likely make that the start of the opening possession most every time. It introduces an approach that isn’t used at other points in a game. Also, this format would heavily favor teams that embrace analytic thinking, which as we know is not all of them. Ties aren’t addressed here, either.

Grade: B. This structure is innovative but ultimately had no support when the Baltimore Ravens proposed it in 2021. NFL owners and their advisers aren’t ready to accept rules based on game theory, or even those that look like it — at least not yet.


Full OT period with no sudden death

What would happen: The teams would play a fifth quarter, be it 15 minutes or perhaps 10, and the team that is leading when the clock expires would win.

Pros: It’s exceedingly fair and reflects the structure of other games such as basketball. In suggesting this approach earlier this month, Buffalo’s Beane said: “[T]hat way, both teams will definitely have a chance and maybe even more than one possession.” It’s as close to following the structure of regulation as you can get. Remember, sudden death introduces a convenient but ultimately unique way of determining the outcome.

Cons: This brings a guarantee of longer games and would serve as a detriment to player health — and potentially entertainment value, as well. There could still be ties, even after the additional time and plays. And you would probably see a determined effort by teams in possession to drain the clock, which would detract from the point of adding a full-time period.

Grade: C. This approach could be an option for a playoff-only proposal, but to play a full 10 or 15 extra minutes in the regular season is probably too much football from a variety of perspectives. There are more efficient ways to declare a winner.


Shootout

What would happen: Broadly speaking, each team gets a certain number of red zone (or near-red zone) plays to score. This general format has been used at the high school and college levels, as well as by some alternative pro leagues. The specifics can vary, including requirements to use a 2-point conversion, but in most scenarios, the sides alternate until one team has more points than the other at the end of a round. (The new USFL will use a best-of-three-round format.)

• Ranks:

NFL

Sources: Jets, Fins in trade talks for Chiefs' Hill

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are in serious talks to trade for Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill, league sources told ESPN.

Hill is expected to receive a massive contract extension from the team that trades for him, according to sources.

Multiple teams were approached about a potential Hill trade, but the Jets and Dolphins emerged in recent days as the two finalists, sources said.

Hill and Chiefs are mulling what to do, sources said, and a decision is likely within the next 48 hours.

Dolphins assistant general manager Marvin Allen was the Chiefs director of college scouting for five years, from 2013 to ’17, when Kansas City drafted Hill.

Both the Jets and the Dolphins are in need of a No. 1 wide receiver to aid their young quarterbacks, Zach Wilson and Tua Tagovailoa, respectively.

Hill, who has been selected to the Pro Bowl in all six seasons of his NFL career, had a career-best 111 receptions for 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns last season.

He has 479 receptions for 6,630 yards and 56 touchdowns in his career.

If the Chiefs trade Hill, the Chiefs’ wide receiver corps would include free-agent addition JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, Josh Gordon, Justin Watson, Cornell Powell, Gehrig Dieter and Corey Coleman.

The team still would be expected to add wide receivers in free agency and the draft.

NFL

NFL quarterback prospect Malik Willis brings 'once in a lifetime' pro day to Liberty

LYNCHBURG, Va. — Ralph Wilson, better known as “Chopper” at the Ninth Street Parlor, just finished giving Liberty University football coach Hugh Freeze a shave and haircut. The 56-year-old barber wanted the coach to look especially good for what he insisted was the biggest day this town, best known as the home of television evangelist Jerry Falwell Sr., has seen in his lifetime.

Maybe ever.

“It’s going to blow,” Chopper said late Monday afternoon. “MAAA-an, it’s going to blow!”

Chopper was talking about pro day at Liberty University, which, until Tuesday, barely drew a blip on the NFL radar. Instead of the typical eight to 10 scouts, barely enough to run the wide assortment of drills, 120 NFL coaches, scouts and front office personnel will be on campus.

Instead of having one or two players hopeful of being a late-round pick or an undrafted pickup, 19 will be on display.

All 32 NFL teams will be represented, but some more than others. The Carolina Panthers, who have the No. 6 overall pick and are looking for a quarterback, will be out in full force with general manager Scott Fitterer, head coach Matt Rhule, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo and others, just as they were on Monday in Pittsburgh for quarterback Kenny Pickett.

ESPN and NFL Network will do live shows from the campus outlined by the Blue Ridge Mountains.

They’re will all here because of one player: senior quarterback Malik Willis, whose never-before-seen-talent in these parts has put Liberty on the NFL map in ways few, if any, ever imagined.

Even the city manager has called offering assistance.

“I don’t think I can quantify [what this day means],” Freeze said. “I just know it’s huge.”

‘This is monumental’

Barber Ralph Wilson, better known as “Chopper,’’ says Liberty’s Malik Willis is all anyone talks about in the Ninth Street Parlor. David Newton

The school has spent weeks preparing for the pro day, an event they barely invested a few days in the past. Chopper, who half-jokingly claims he looks like a combination of Magic Johnson and George Foreman, says it’s all people in the parlor have talked about since it became apparent Willis could be a first-round pick —

• “It’s an unprecedented brand-building opportunity,” McCaw said.

• Ranks:

120 NFL coaches, scouts and front office personnel are on Liberty’s campus for their pro day, with star quarterback Malik Willis scheduled to go last. David Newton

Between spring practice and preparing for pro day, Freeze had little time to relax the past month. Chopper took care of that for about an hour and a half in his barber’s chair.

“He was just snoring,” he said.

Tuesday was wide open, beginning with check-ins at 9 a.m. and weight room testing at 10 a.m.

The schedule calls for Willis, who led Liberty to a 17-6 record while passing for for 5,107 yards and 47 touchdowns in two seasons, not to perform until 1 p.m. so he didn’t steal the spotlight early.

But Willis, considered undersize at 6-foot and 225 pounds, will steal the spotlight on draft day. The Panthers are looking at him as a possibility, just as they are Pickett.

They are searching for a franchise quarterback after failing to make a trade last week for the

NFL

Will the Panthers take quarterback Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis at No. 6?

INDIANAPOLIS – One league executive at the NFL combine said the Carolina Panthers are a “sh– show’’ with three straight five-win seasons, a quarterback situation that is a mess and a coach who hasn’t gotten a public vote of support from owner David Tepper.

Others wonder if there is a shift of power with Matt Rhule being one of five head coaches who didn’t have a formal podium interview, while general manager Scott Fitterer did.

Amidst all the uncertainty surrounding the Panthers, one thing is clear: They have to figure out the quarterback position to turn things around and give Rhule an opportunity to coach beyond the 2022 season.

And that won’t be easy.

“There’s a lot of teams looking,’’ Cincinnati Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin told ESPN.com. “And there’s not enough elite guys to go around, and that’s something that everybody is keenly aware of.

“There’s a lot of good quarterbacks to go around, but finding the elite one is very difficult.’’

Tobin got an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow, the top pick of the 2020 draft out of LSU, who, in two years, took the Bengals from one of the worst teams in the NFL to the Super Bowl.

Carolina doesn’t have the luxury this year of having the top pick or a quarterback class with the immediate star appeal the past two drafts did. The free-agent crop isn’t stellar, either.

Some may see it as a reach to draft Kenny Pickett at No. 6 in the 2022 NFL draft, but it may be worth it if the Carolina Panthers get their long-term solution at quarterback. Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire

And the likelihood that the At best, it appears Newton would be a role player and not a long-term solution.

• Rankings: Considering Burrow was sacked more times (51) than any quarterback in 2021 and still made it to the Super Bowl, there was no denying Burrow is an elite player.

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