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Soccer

Premier League odds: Top 10 beckons for Burnley

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Unlike the top-four and top-six races, which come with spots in Europe, there’s no actual reward for finishing in the top half of the table.

Still, a top-10 finish serves as a point of pride for clubs, and while it’s not one of the more popular markets, there’s certainly value to be found in it for bettors.

Here’s how the middle of the Premier League table looked when the season was suspended.

POS. CLUB PTS GD MP
6. Wolverhampton 43 +7 29
7. Sheffield United 43 +5 28
8. Tottenham 41 +7 29
9. Arsenal 40 +4 28
10. Burnley 39 -6 29
11. Crystal Palace 39 -6 29
12. Everton 37 -9 29
13. Newcastle 35 -16 29
14. Southampton 34 -17 29

POS. – position; PTS – points; GD – goal difference; MP – matches played

And here are the odds for clubs to secure a top-10 finish.

CLUB ODDS
Wolverhampton -3500
Tottenham -2000
Arsenal -1500
Sheffield United -1200
Everton -140
Burnley +190
Crystal Palace +200
Southampton +700
Newcastle +1500

I’m of the belief that the top-nine teams will remain in the top nine through the end of the season. Wolves and Sheffield United are backed by excellent managers in Nuno Espirito Santo and Chris Wilder, and that will keep them competing for a spot in Europe next season. Tottenham will receive a massive boost by the return of Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son, and Moussa Sissoko, aiding in their top-four push, while Arsenal have a game in hand over all the clubs below them and still have four matches remaining against the bottom-six teams.

That leaves one spot up for grabs, currently shared by Burnley and Crystal Palace. The prices on these two clubs are about the same, with the Clarets sitting at +190 and the Eagles at +200, but they have contrasting outlooks.

Burnley are excellently managed by Sean Dyche, who’s a terrific motivator and tactician. There’s cohesion in the team with little turnover in personnel, and that familiarity will aid in the club’s form upon the restart. Where Burnley have typically struggled is against the “big six” sides. The Clarets are 1-2-7 in games against the “big six” this season but have just two such matches remaining, while four of their final nine fixtures are against the bottom-six sides, with whom they are 5-2-1 against this season. Expect a strong finish from Dyche’s side, as the club provides excellent value to keep its place in the top half of the table at +190.

Should the Clarets falter, don’t expect Palace to take advantage. Roy Hodgson’s side has overachieved considerably this season. Jordan Ayew has been serviceable up top, but there simply aren’t enough goals on their side. The Eagles have been the beneficiaries of some timely scoring, but with a lack of goalscorers on their side, that’s not something they can keep relying on.

Palace also have a daunting fixture list ahead of them, with seven of their last nine matches coming against top-10 sides, including Liverpool (away), Leicester (away), Chelsea, Manchester United, Wolves (away), and Tottenham. The Eagles are likelier to drop to 14th by season’s end than they are to break into the top half of the table.

Everton are strong candidates to leapfrog both Burnley and Palace and finish inside the top 10, with oddsmakers pegging them as favorites to do so at -140. The Toffees have experienced something of a resurgence since Carlo Ancelotti took over, posting a 5-3-3 record in the league under the Italian. That being said, their remaining schedule poses a number of hurdles with three of their next four matches coming against Liverpool, Leicester, and Tottenham. If they can get through those relatively unscathed, there’s a clear path to a top-10 finish, but I’m not comfortable backing the Toffees at such a short price.

Sitting a bit further down the table are Southampton, who are especially interesting at +700. The Saints have bounced back impressively following a miserable start to the campaign in which they lost eight of their first 12 matches, and there’s a lot to like about this side under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

Southampton had the league’s worst home record when the season was suspended and will be one of the clubs least effected by playing in an empty stadium. Their toughest remaining fixtures are against Arsenal, Everton, and the two Manchesters, but there’s nothing especially daunting about those matches. If they can claim even six points from those four fixtures, the rest of their schedule maps out well for them to break into the top 10.

Best bets: Burnley +190, Southampton +700

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Soccer

La Liga Matchday 30 betting preview: Valencia run rampant at the Mestalla

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Thank you, La Liga.

The exact fixture dates aren’t set beyond June 26, but if the next two weeks are any indication, we are going to have a run of 38 consecutive days with at least one La Liga match beginning Thursday. I’m literally giddy just typing that.

The fun begins at Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan Stadium as Sevilla host Real Betis in the Seville derby. Let’s dive right into Matchday 28.

Levante (+330) at Valencia (-135), Draw (+320)

The Mestalla has been a fortress for Valencia this season, and even without fans in attendance Friday, there’s no reason they shouldn’t maintain their dominance. Albert Celades’ side is unbeaten at its home ground this season with eight wins and six draws and had won six of its last eight at home (drawing Atletico and Real Madrid) before the campaign was suspended.

With the club chasing a Champions League berth, it’s essential to get off to a flying start, and there’s no better way to do that than with a statement win over rivals Levante in the Valencia derby.

No club has suffered more losses away from home this season than Levante, who have lost 11 of 14, including seven of their last eight. They’ve yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels, allowing at least a goal in 29 consecutive away matches, and have historically struggled in this fixture, losing each of their last five trips to the Mestalla by scores of 3-1, 3-1, 3-0, 3-0, and 2-0. Expect a similar result here.

Pick: Valencia (-135)

Deportivo Alaves (+280) at Espanyol (+110), Draw (+220)

This is a true six-pointer in the relegation scrap, with Alaves looking to pull away from the drop zone and Espanyol desperate to climb out from the bottom of the table.

There are plenty of positives to take from the recent form of both these sides, but it remains to be seen how they will respond to the long layoff. Before the hiatus, Espanyol had gone five matches unbeaten at RCDE Stadium, while Alaves had lost just one of their last four away from home and two of their last nine overall.

The responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Espanyol here as they really need the three points, which will allow Alaves to sit back and let the match come to them. The visitors will do enough to frustrate a sputtering Espanyol side and earn a share of the spoils.

Pick: Draw (+220)

Barcelona (-350) at Mallorca (+800), Draw (+480)

All eyes across the football world will be fixated on what’s shaping up to be a thrilling title race in La Liga, with just two points separating first-place Barcelona and second-place Real Madrid. The Blaugrana should be able to secure three points here, but they won’t come easy against a stingy Mallorca side that has allowed just 14 goals in 14 home matches this season.

Mallorca have done well to limit the damage from top-six La Liga sides in a number of tightly contested matches at Son Moix this season. They beat Real Madrid 1-0, lost 2-0 to Sevilla and Atletico, and lost 1-0 to Real Sociedad and Getafe.

Barcelona will have to work hard to break Mallorca down – a familiar feeling for the league leaders, who have struggled in away matches this season. They’ve scored just 18 goals in 13 of those fixtures compared to 45 in 14 at home, and it will take a bit of time to find their rhythm in attack as play resumes.

Pick: Under 3, 3.5 (-115)

Full card:

  • Granada/Getafe draw (+205)
  • Valencia (-135)
  • Espanyol/Alaves draw (+220)
  • Leganes/Valladolid under 2 (-120)
  • Mallorca/Barcelona under 3, 3.5 (-115)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Soccer

Premier League odds: Value with Aubameyang, Rashford in Golden Boot race

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

After spending the past two days analyzing the top four and relegation markets, today we shift gears to the most popular individual player market.

When the season was suspended, Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy led the Premier League’s golden boot race with 19 goals, ahead of Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (17). A laundry list of players in the 13-16 range are below them.

Oddsmakers have made Vardy a short favorite to claim his first Premier League Golden Boot.

PLAYER CLUB ODDS GOALS
Jamie Vardy Leicester City +180 19
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Arsenal +350 17
Sergio Aguero Manchester City +450 16
Mohamed Salah Liverpool +600 16
Sadio Mane Liverpool +1600 14
Marcus Rashford Manchester United +1600 14
Harry Kane Tottenham +1800 11
Danny Ings Southampton +2000 15
Raul Jimenez Wolverhampton +4000 13
Tammy Abraham Chelsea +4000 13
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Everton +4000 13
Gabriel Jesus Manchester City +6600 10
Raheem Sterling Manchester City +6600 11
Anthony Martial Manchester United +10000 11
Teemu Pukki Norwich City +15000 11

After scoring 17 goals in his first 18 games, Vardy cooled considerably, with just two in eight matches before the season suspension. He’s an experienced striker, and the long layoff likely won’t affect him much. But it would be lying to say age isn’t a factor here. Vardy rarely misses time, but will the 33-year-old really be asked to play 180 minutes each week for the next six weeks?

Also, with eight points of breathing room between Leicester and Manchester United in fifth, it’s very possible the Foxes wrap up a top-four finish well before the end of the campaign, allowing manager Brendan Rodgers to give his key players some rest. That would open the door for someone below Vardy to get hot and sprint to the top of the scoring chart.

That someone could very well be Aubameyang. The Arsenal striker has played almost every minute he’s been eligible for this season. In 26 matches, he’s been subbed off just once, and the only two matches Aubameyang missed came due to a red card suspension. He’s no stranger to piling up minutes, regularly featuring both in midweek matches and on the weekend for the Gunners while balancing Europa League and Premier League responsibilities.

Arsenal benefit from the added bonus of enjoying a game in hand over most of the league. But they’ll be fighting tooth and nail between now and the end of the season for a European place, which means there’s no worry about them taking their foot off the gas. They also still face the league’s three worst defenses.

Aubameyang is a consistent scorer, too, and not a streaky one who can be hard to predict. He’s scored in 14 different Premier League matches this term and hasn’t gone more than three straight without a goal. He offers excellent value at +350.

While Arsenal will spend the final six weeks fighting for positioning, the same isn’t true of Liverpool and Manchester City. Both of those clubs will be locked into first and second place, respectively, and relatively quickly, with little to play for beyond that. It’s likely we see them ease up.

That means plenty of squad rotation from managers Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, who can both choose from an embarrassment of riches in attack. With so many matches in such a short period, and these sides playing for little, the likes of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, and Gabriel Jesus likely won’t get enough minutes to warrant backing in this race.

Another name to refrain from backing is Tottenham striker Harry Kane, who will be returning from a nearly six-month layoff. At +1800, he’s a sucker’s bet, as there’s no way he’ll be thrust into full action and starting twice each week. It’ll take him some time to return to match speed, and with Kane already eight goals back of Vardy, any money invested in him is better off being donated to a worthy cause.

If you’re looking for a long shot to support, instead consider United forward Marcus Rashford, who scored 11 goals in 14 games before a back injury sidelined him in mid-January. He’s been a full go in training and should be a fixture up top for the Red Devils over the remaining nine matches as they chase a Champions League place.

Rashford isn’t the type of striker who piles up the stats against the weaker teams, either. He’s scored against 10 different Premier League clubs this season, including each of the current top four. He’ll also still get plenty of opportunities to compile goals down the stretch, as six of United’s nine remaining matches are against clubs currently in the bottom half of the table.

Best bets: Aubameyang (+350), Rashford (+1600)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Soccer

Report: UEFA considering Champions League mini-tournament in neutral city

Find out the latest on COVID-19’s impact on the sports world and when sports are returning by subscribing to Breaking News push notifications in the Sports and COVID-19 section.

UEFA is considering staging a mini-tournament in a neutral hub city to complete the 2019-20 Champions League campaign, sources told ESPN’s Mark Ogden.

Lisbon is reportedly a strong contender to host all remaining matches because it has two modern stadiums – Benfica’s Estadio da Luz and Sporting CP’s Estadio Jose Alvalade – within close proximity of each other. With no Portuguese teams left in the Champions League, Lisbon can be considered neutral territory.

Portugal is also reporting fewer coronavirus cases than most European countries.

Frankfurt is another option reportedly under consideration. Eintracht Frankfurt’s Commerzbank Arena would serve as the main venue.

It was reported in May that UEFA will relocate this year’s final from Istanbul due to concerns about the coronavirus in Turkey, though sources told Ogden the city is still being considered as a potential venue. Turkey has recorded 4,692 related deaths and more than 170,000 confirmed cases so far.

UEFA is expected to make a decision when its executive committee next meets on June 17.

The Champions League was suspended in the middle of the round of 16 due to the global health crisis. Lyon currently lead Juventus 1-0 on aggregate, Manchester City hold a 2-1 advantage over Real Madrid, Barcelona and Napoli are tied 1-1, and Bayern Munich boast a 3-0 lead over Chelsea.

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