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Soccer

Bundesliga Matchday 30 betting preview: Augsburg strengthen survival bid

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

That’s more like it.

We took home a nice profit over the weekend, finishing with a 4-1.5-0.5 record. Let’s keep the good times rolling into Matchday 30.

Borussia Monchengladbach (-135) at Freiburg (+325), Draw (+290)

It hasn’t been the smoothest restart for Freiburg, a club that remains winless in four matches since the break. They’ve lost 1-0 in their two matches at Schwarzwald-Stadion and have now lost five of their last seven on home soil after starting the season 4-2-1.

Gladbach got back on track last weekend in a 4-1 drubbing of Union Berlin after claiming just one point from their previous two matches. They’ve got top-four ambitions, making every point crucial with just five games remaining. However, they’ve won just three of their last nine matches away from home – all against clubs in the bottom half of the table.

Their free-flowing attack will run into trouble against a Freiburg side that is very difficult to break down under Christian Streich. Gladbach’s last win in Freiburg came in the 2. Bundesliga in 2007. Since then, they’ve lost eight of their nine visits there – one draw – as well as each of their last three trips to Schwarzwald-Stadion.

Pick: Freiburg +0.5 (+105)

Hoffenheim (+145) at Fortuna Dusseldorf (+170), Draw (+255)

This is a huge match for both clubs with Hoffenheim pushing for a Europa League berth and Fortuna desperately trying to stave off relegation. Three points would be massive for either side, which should lead to a tense, cagey affair with both clubs adopting a bit of extra caution to their approach.

That plays right into both of these sides. In their last eight home matches against clubs outside the top five, Fortuna have allowed just seven goals; as a whole this season, they’ve scored just 15 goals in 14 home matches. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have perfected the art of defense on the road, allowing just 13 goals in their 14 away matches this season.

In what should be a tightly contested match between a pair of disciplined clubs, scoring chances – and thus goals – will be difficult to come by.

Pick: Under 2.5, 3 (+102)

Koln (+145) at Augsburg (+170), Draw (+245)

Expect plenty of fireworks when these sides meet Sunday at WWK Arena. Augsburg’s 14 home matches this season have seen a staggering total of 48 goals, while Koln’s 14 away fixtures have produced an even more remarkable 52. The visitors have the talent up front to bag a goal or two, but are an absolute mess defensively. In four games since the restart, Koln have conceded 11 goals, scoring seven.

Both of these sides are entrenched in the bottom half of the table, but relegation is very unlikely for Koln, leaving them with little to play for over the final five matches. The same isn’t true of Augsburg, who trail Sunday’s opponents by four points and are just six up on the bottom three.

Look for the hosts to play with a real sense of urgency here as they aim to stave off the drop, and there’s a lot to like about their chances in this match. Koln are all over the place at the back and ripe for the picking as Augsburg are in search of a third successive victory over them at WWK Arena, and look to improve to 5-2-0 at home to clubs in the bottom eight this season.

Pick: Augsburg (+170); over 2.5, 3 (+100)

Full card:

  • Freiburg +0.5 (+105)
  • Eintracht/Mainz over 3 (-105)
  • Fortuna/Hoffenheim under 2.5, 3 (+102)
  • Bremen/Wolfsburg over 2.5 (-103)
  • Augsburg (+170)
  • Augsburg/Koln over 2.5, 3 (+100)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Soccer

FIFA president: Anti-racism messages deserve applause, not punishment

FIFA pledged support Tuesday for footballers demonstrating against racial injustice after a now-former police offer killed George Floyd, an unarmed black man, in Minneapolis on May 25.

Last weekend’s displays from Borussia Monchengladbach’s Marcus Thuram, Borussia Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho, and other Bundesliga players led to speculation they could face sanctions if soccer’s authorities construe their acts as political messages.

England’s Premier League said Tuesday it will review players who protest racism on a “case-by-case basis” when play restarts on June 17.

FIFA, however, praised the likes of Thuram and Sancho for their anti-racism messages and calls for justice amid the United States’ ongoing problem with police brutality.

“For the avoidance of doubt, in a FIFA competition the recent demonstrations of players in Bundesliga matches would deserve an applause and not a punishment,” FIFA president Gianni Infantino said in Tuesday’s statement.

He added: “We all must say no to racism and any form of discrimination. We all must say no to violence. Any form of violence.”

Soccer’s world administrative body and its six confederations have been criticized over the years for not adequately dealing with the issue of racism in the sport. FIFA itself set up an anti-racism task force in 2013 before it was dissolved in 2016 after it “completely fulfilled its temporary mission.”

Nevertheless, FIFA stated it has recently made amendments to its disciplinary rules in an attempt to eradicate racism, and it noted the organization’s regular anti-racism campaigns around matches.

Soccer

Serie A title odds: Can Lazio end Juventus' reign?

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The Scudetto race is set to heat up in a big way this summer.

Serie A is slated to return on June 20, with 124 matches scheduled over a 43-day span in an effort to complete the season in a little over six weeks.

At the time the season was suspended, Juventus held a one-point lead over Lazio at the summit.

CLUB POINTS MATCHES PLAYED GOAL DIFFERENCE
Juventus 63 26 26
Lazio 62 26 37
Inter 54 25 25

Despite the narrow lead, oddsmakers have priced the Bianconeri as heavy favorites to win Serie A.

CLUB ODDS
Juventus -250
Lazio +250
Inter +1400

Their quest for a ninth successive Scudetto will begin Monday, June 22 at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara when they visit Bologna.

Here are the remaining fixture lists for the three clubs still in the hunt for the Serie A title. Inter holds a game in hand over the two sides they’re chasing.

JUVENTUS LAZIO INTER
@ Bologna @ Atalanta vs. Sampdoria
vs. Lecce vs. Fiorentina vs. Sassuolo
@ Genoa @ Torino @ Parma
vs. Torino vs. Milan vs. Brescia
@ Milan @ Lecce vs. Bologna
vs. Atalanta vs. Sassuolo @ Hellas Verona
@ Sassuolo @ Udinese vs. Torino
vs. Lazio @ Juventus @ SPAL
@ Udinese vs. Cagliari @ Roma
vs. Sampdoria @ Hellas Verona vs. Fiorentina
@ Cagliari vs. Brescia @ Genoa
vs. Roma @ Napoli vs. Napoli
N/A N/A @ Atalanta

A quick glance at the remaining schedules shows Lazio are at a clear disadvantage. Seven of their remaining 12 matches are away from home, including daunting trips to Juventus, Atalanta, and Napoli.

Lazio also have the most matches remaining against clubs in the top eight, with four of those five fixtures taking place away from home, as the odds are stacked against Simone Inzaghi’s side. At the current price, I’m steering clear of buying in on the Biancocelesti.

Some aspects of Inter’s remaining schedule are appealing to bettors: They have a game in hand, they have the most home matches remaining (seven), and they play five of the bottom six clubs while avoiding the likes of Juventus and Lazio. Trips to Atalanta and Roma will prove decisive in how seriously Inter are to be taken as title contenders.

No matter which way you spin it, however, it’s hard to dispute that Juventus have the friendliest remaining schedule. Eight of their remaining 12 matches come against clubs sitting 10th or lower in the table, while all three of their matches against the top six clubs take place at home.

A visit from Lazio on July 20 is the biggest hurdle for Juventus to clear in their Scudetto chase. Should they beat their nearest title challengers, it’s hard to see them being dethroned.

All signs point to Juventus finishing the season strong and securing a ninth successive Serie A title, and I wouldn’t shy away from laying -250. But if you’re looking for a ‘dog to back, I’d much rather be invested in Inter at +1400 than Lazio at +250.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Soccer

La Liga title odds: Two horse race in Spain

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Leagues across Europe are being given the green light to return, with Spain’s La Liga set to restart on June 11 with Sevilla hosting Real Betis.

Kick-off times (CET) for Matchday 28 of #LaLigaSantander 2019/20. ???

? #BackToWin ? pic.twitter.com/5iGvR6BQ6j

— LaLiga English (@LaLigaEN) May 31, 2020

Barcelona’s first match back will be on June 13, with Real Madrid returning a day later, as the two clubs are set to reignite their title race that was put on hold due to the pandemic.

When the season was suspended, Barcelona held a two-point lead over title challengers Real Madrid with 11 matches remaining, and oddmakers have made them small favorites to maintain their lead through the end of the campaign and win a third successive La Liga title.

CLUB ODDS
Barcelona -150
Real Madrid +125
Atletico Madrid +25000
Getafe +25000
Real Sociedad +25000
Sevilla +25000

The fixture lists

Before we dive into each club’s title credentials, let’s map out their remaining schedules over the final 11 Matchdays.

MATCHDAY BARCELONA REAL MADRID
28 @ Mallorca vs. Eibar
29 vs. Leganes vs. Valencia
30 @ Sevilla @ Real Sociedad
31 vs. Athletic Club vs. Mallorca
32 @ Celta Vigo @ Espanyol
33 vs. Atletico Madrid vs. Getafe
34 @ Villarreal @ Athletic Club
35 vs. Espanyol vs. Alaves
36 @ Real Valladolid @ Granada
37 vs. Osasuna vs. Villarreal
38 @ Alaves @ Leganes

On the surface, Barcelona appear to have a slight edge here, with just four of their remaining matches coming against clubs in the top half of the table, while Real Madrid have six. The Blaugrana also still have the benefit of facing each of the bottom-four clubs in the table – as well as six of the bottom seven. However, Real Madrid hold a slight advantage with six of their remaining 11 matches coming on home soil, while Barcelona have five.

Will Barcelona slip up?

Quique Setien’s side has the luxury of returning to a pair of relatively straightforward matches, as they first visit a Mallorca side they have beaten on six successive occasions, before hosting Leganes, whom they have beaten all four times at Camp Nou.

In fact, Barcelona have been close to untouchable all season at Camp Nou, posting a 13-1-0 record at home this campaign. Their toughest remaining test at the venue is a date with Atletico Madrid, who are enduring a difficult season by their lofty standards. Otherwise, the Blaugrana host Leganes, Athletic Club, Espanyol, and Osasuna, neither of which should pose a threat to their nearly unblemished home record.

It’s away from home where Barcelona have struggled this season, posting a humble 5-3-5 record. They have a negative goal differential on their travels and have won just one of their last five away from home. Should those struggles continue, the door will be blown open in the title race, and the possibility of slipping up certainly exists given the difficulty of some of Barcelona’s remaining away fixtures.

They visit third-place Sevilla and eighth-place Villarreal, where they’ve won just one of their last three visits to El Madrigal. A trip to face struggling Celta Vigo isn’t as easy as it might appear either, given Barcelona are winless in their last five trips to Baladios, losing three of those.

However, there are two determining factors that could prove a saving grace for Barcelona, helping to salvage their poor away form. The first is that all matches will be played behind closed doors, mitigating home-pitch advantage. Second, all six of Barcelona’s away fixtures are against opponents in the bottom 10 of La Liga in terms of home points accrued this season.

Even a slight uptick in form away from home, coupled with their impervious success at Camp Nou, would be enough for Barcelona to stave off Real Madrid’s title challenge.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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