Guide to every Week 9 NFL game: Picks, matchup nuggets, more

Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Nick Foles will be sacked a minimum of four times. Chicago could be without four Week 1 starters along the offensive line against the Titans — and the best-case scenario still leaves it down two of them. Foles has been under tremendous pressure since he took over for Mitchell Trubisky in Week 3, as the Bears have surrendered 20 sacks (tied for ninth most in the NFL) and rank 21st in pass block win rate, according to ESPN Stats & Information data. Foles is in for a long afternoon. — Jeff Dickerson

Stat to know: Tennessee is last in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate allowed at 61.9%. The team was eighth last season at 36.3%. But luckily for the Titans, the Bears’ offense ranks 31st in third-down conversion rate at 34.9%, meaning third down could be interesting on Sunday.

Injuries: Bears | Titans

What to know for fantasy: Titans running back Derrick Henry has five straight games with at least 15 fantasy points but three or fewer receptions. That’s the longest streak of its kind since one by Arian Foster in 2012, and it might continue against a Bears defense that is worse against the run than you might think (below league average in both running back rushing yards and yards per carry). See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: When Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill starts regular-season games for Tennessee, overs are 15-2, including 6-1 this season. Read more.

Dickerson’s pick: Titans 21, Bears 13
Davenport’s pick: Titans 21, Bears 17
FPI prediction: TEN, 62.0% (by an average of 4.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bad to worse: Bears O-line beset by injury … Davis proving his worth to Titans ahead of critical offseason … Bears can’t pull out another miracle win … Titans release DB Joseph after getting King

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 40.8 | Spread: MIN -4 (52.5)

What to watch for: Who’s going to suit up at quarterback for the Lions after Matthew Stafford was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday? While coach Matt Patricia would not speculate about the QB’s status, it’s possible Stafford plays in Week 9 if he continues to test negative every day this week. If not, it’ll be Chase Daniel or David Blough under center. Since Stafford was drafted by Detroit in 2009, the Lions are 5-22 (.185) when he doesn’t start, including 0-8 last season. — Courtney Cronin

Bold prediction: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins continues his dominance over Patricia’s Lions with a 275-yard, three-touchdown day in which he completes 75% of his passes. Last year, Cousins threw for 580 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions against Detroit, and he has yet to have a game under 70% completions against the Lions since Patricia took over in 2018. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: This will be running back Adrian Peterson’s third career game against Minnesota, a team he spent 10 seasons with earlier in his career. Peterson’s teams are 0-2 against his former club.

Injuries: Lions | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: Lions wideout Kenny Golladay will not be active this week, so it’s worth noting that Marvin Jones Jr. averages 22.2 points per game during his Lions career when seeing at least 10 targets. See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: Minnesota has covered each of the past five meetings between these teams. Read more.

Rothstein’s pick: Vikings 31, Lions 23
Cronin’s pick: Vikings 28, Lions 20
FPI prediction: MIN, 66.5% (by an average of 5.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: With Golladay out, Hockenson could emerge as go-to guy … Key to Vikings’ success: Keep ball out of Cousins’ hands? … What is happening to Lions run game? … Stafford on COVID list again

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 39.4 | Spread: ATL -4 (50)

What to watch for: The Falcons’ secondary is improving, thanks in part to a pass rush that has generated 20 of its 47 QB hits and six of its 13 sacks over the past three games. And Broncos QB Drew Lock is completing an NFL-worst 58% of his passes and has the fifth-highest off-target percentage in the league, per ESPN Stats & Information. — Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: The patchwork Raiders offensive line will throw a shutout against the Chargers’ hobbled pass rush, a week after shutting out an obviously hobbled Myles Garrett in frigid Cleveland. And Carr, able to extend plays, will rush for at least one first down. — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: The Raiders are 3-1 on the road this season after going a combined 3-13 on the road in the previous two seasons. And they will seek to win three straight road games for just the third time in the past 15 seasons.

Injuries: Raiders | Chargers

What to know for fantasy: Herbert has four straight games with at least 21 fantasy points, tying Deshaun Watson for the longest such streak by a rookie quarterback among active players. See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: Six of seven Raiders games have gone over the total this season. Read more.

Gutierrez’s pick: Raiders 23, Chargers 21
Smith’s pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: LV, 53.9% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Raiders entering potentially season-defining stretch vs. AFC West foes … Will Chargers wide receiver Williams put it all together after up-and-down start? … When will the Raiders’ massive, and expensive, O-line get back together? … Lynn on Chargers blowing another double-digit lead: Got to figure this out

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 54.9 | Spread: ARI -4.5 (49)

What to watch for: Despite the Cardinals playing well as of late, they’ll be down Byron Murphy Jr., and maybe Dre Kirkpatrick, at cornerback. If Kirkpatrick is out too, watch for Miami rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa to have a big outing, because whomever Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson isn’t guarding will be picked on all day. — Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: The Dolphins will hold Cardinals wideout DeAndre Hopkins to under 50 receiving yards. In games during which both Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are healthy, the Dolphins are allowing just 5.5 yards per attempt and 13.8 points per game. They have the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense, and a big reason is their big-money cornerbacks. This is a marquee prove-it game for the Dolphins’ defense, though, and neutralizing Hopkins — who is currently averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game — would be a big accomplishment. — Cameron Wolfe

Stat to know: Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray finished 1-2 in the 2018 Heisman Trophy voting. This will be only the fifth time that quarterbacks who finished 1-2 in the Heisman in the same year have started against each other in the NFL. (Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are the most recent pair to meet, earlier this season.)

Injuries: Dolphins | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy: Hopkins has been a top-10 wide receiver in five of seven games this season, and he faces a Dolphins defense that ranks 21st this season against fantasy wide receivers. See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: Miami has covered games by 11.5 points per contest this season, which is on pace to be the best mark in the Super Bowl era. (The current record is 11.1, by the Oakland Raiders in 1967.) Read more.

Wolfe’s pick: Dolphins 23, Cardinals 20
Weinfuss’ pick: Cardinals 31, Dolphins 24
FPI prediction: ARI, 69.7% (by an average of 7.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: The Tagovailoa tour: Four days, three states, two wins and one unforgettable weekend … Cardinals’ Baker is ‘chill’ until ‘he flips that savage switch’ … Flores says Dolphins are not auditioning Tua … Kingsbury confirms 2 Cardinals tested positive for coronavirus

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 40.5 | Spread: PIT -14 (42)

What to watch for: The Cowboys have had more than 25,000 fans in each of their past three games at AT&T Stadium, and a similar crowd is expected Sunday. How many of them will be Steelers fans? The Cowboys will be starting their fourth different quarterback against a ferocious pass rush. And Pittsburgh has a balanced offense that has scored at least 26 points in each game. When the Steelers visited in 2012, AT&T Stadium was overrun by Terrible Towels among the crowd of 95,595. The crowd will be smaller on Sunday, but the percentage of Steelers fans could be higher. — Todd Archer

Bold prediction: Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott will have his first 100-yard game. The Steelers struggled to stop the Ravens on the ground last week, giving up 265 yards — including 113 to rookie J.K. Dobbins. And they will likely be without defensive lineman Tyson Alualu, linebacker Devin Bush and defensive back Mike Hilton in their run defense. Still, Pittsburgh has had its fair share of tough tests on the ground, and it’s not getting any easier this week, as the Cowboys will likely lean on their rush attack with the quarterback situation in flux. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Steelers are forcing 1.9 turnovers per game, tied for the second most in the NFL behind the Seahawks (2.0). The Cowboys, meanwhile, are committing a league-high 2.3 turnovers per game.

Injuries: Steelers | Cowboys

What to know for fantasy: Elliott is averaging 8.8 fantasy points per game in the three weeks following the Dak Prescott injury (RB25). He was RB4 in the five weeks prior, averaging 22.3 points in the process. See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: Dallas has failed to cover games by an average of 10.1 points per contest this season. That’s on pace to be the second-worst mark in the Super Bowl era. (The Baltimore Colts were at minus-10.7 in 1981.) Read more.

Pryor’s pick: Steelers 35, Cowboys 20
Archer’s pick: Steelers 37, Cowboys 17
FPI prediction: PIT, 78.0% (by an average of 10.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Return of ‘Backyard’ Roethlisberger signals more good things ahead for Steelers … Cowboys to start Gilbert or Rush at QB against Steelers … Steelers changing their ways with another in-season trade … Once Cowboys’ strength, this position group has been hit hard … Dalton news is proof it can get worse for Cowboys

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 83.6 | Spread: TB -4.5 (50.5)

What to watch for: Wide receiver Antonio Brown will make his debut with the Buccaneers, who look to avenge a Week 1 loss at New Orleans and maintain hold of the NFC South. Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said they’re “light-years” from where they were in Week 1 as an offense, and Todd Bowles’ defense has become one of the league’s best. But that D has shown some vulnerability over the past two weeks against the Raiders and Giants, having to overcome slow starts and rely on second-half interceptions to be the difference-makers. It’ll need a much faster start against Drew Brees. — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Bucs quarterback Tom Brady will burn the Saints with a 50-yard TD pass. OK, this one actually isn’t so bold, since the Saints have allowed an astounding seven passes of 48-plus yards over their past five games. New Orleans’ secondary has made gradual improvements, but who better to find and expose a breakdown in coverage than Brady — especially now that he has so many diverse playmakers to work with in Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Brown and possibly Chris Godwin (if he is healthy)? — Mike Triplett

Stat to know: Saints running back Alvin Kamara has six straight games with 100 scrimmage yards, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak by a Saints player since Deuce McAllister’s team-record nine-game streak in 2003. Kamara’s 27 career games of 100 scrimmage yards are tied with Joe Horn for third in franchise history.

Injuries: Saints | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: In his past three matchups with the Saints, Evans has just five catches on his 119 routes run. See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: All seven New Orleans games have gone over the total this season. Read more.

Triplett’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 23
Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 29, Saints 26
FPI prediction: TB, 64.9% (by an average of 5.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Scars of the NFL’s QB guard: How Brees, Brady and others have worked through injuries … Brown says he’s grateful to be back in football … Saints are 5-2 because Kamara is making NFL history … What can the Buccaneers expect from receiver Brown?

play

Mike Clay isn’t benching Michael Thomas, but expresses concern about his matchup against Bucs CB Carlton Davis.

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Matchup rating: 22.5 | Spread: NE -7.5 (42.5)

What to watch for: The Patriots have lost four straight. The Jets have lost eight straight. Each team has gone three straight without a touchdown pass. Both quarterbacks, Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, are struggling. Once upon a time — say, 10 years ago — this was a fun rivalry. Then it became one-sided. Now it looks no-sided. — Rich Cimini

Bold prediction: Rookie Patriots linebacker Josh Uche, who played 13 snaps in his debut, will take on a larger role and get involved in creating a turnover that helps the Patriots to a victory. Uche, a second-round pick from Michigan, is the type of fast, physical linebacker the Patriots desperately need to become a centerpiece of their defense. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: Over his past three games, Newton has zero touchdowns, five interceptions, a 21% off-target percentage and a 25.3 Total QBR. Part of the problem might be his wideouts. That group has one receiving TD this season (fewest in the NFL), and the Pats have thrown eight picks when targeting a wide receiver (one fewer than the most in the NFL).

Injuries: Patriots | Jets

What to know for fantasy: Is New England running back Damien Harris getting enough attention? His per-game average would have him trending toward an 1,100-yard season, and he finally got into the end zone last week in Buffalo. His role is game-script dependent, but even the struggling Patriots are 7.5-point road favorites over the Jets. See Week 9 rankings.

Betting nugget: Bill Belichick is 6-1 ATS in his career in New England when facing a team 0-3 or worse outright. Read more.

Reiss’ pick: Patriots 26, Jets 17
Cimini’s pick: Patriots 20, Jets 10
FPI prediction: NE, 72.6% (by an average of 8.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Dolphins trade WR Ford to Patriots … Jets optimistic Darnold will play Monday night despite shoulder injury … After decades of dominance, Patriots are a long shot to win AFC East … Jets GM Douglas shoulders blame while backing Darnold, Gase … Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?