Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for Week 17
Every week, I write this column over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday. Except this week, when instead of spending all day Wednesday in front of a computer, I spent it with my wife, kids and 23 other members of my extended family celebrating Christmas and Hanukkah.
Week 17 fantasy football rankings
Clay: Fantasy Intel on all 32 teams
Karabell: Flex Ranks for Week 17
Clay: Shadow Report: CB vs. WR
All of which is a long way of saying there’s no opening story this week. Hey, it’s Week 17.
Since it is the end of the year, I will wrap up a few things. The final “Fantasy Football Now” of the season airs Sunday at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN2 and goes all the way up to kickoff. It’s also my birthday, so you can literally watch me get even older in front of your eyes. We will do a final 06010 podcast on Monday night. Please check out @fantasyfocus on Twitter for details there.
As for myself, because people seem to care, I will tell you that I played in 14 leagues this year, made the playoffs in 10, the finals in six, and won the title in two, with two finals still to be played this week. By the way, my two finals losses were among the most painful I’ve ever had.
I found 14 leagues way too much to handle this year and definitely need to cut down next year. Just not enough time to do waiver claims each week for so many leagues, to respond to trade offers, look for trades, etc. It definitely affected my performance in some of them.
Most importantly, however, I was able to raise $8,000 for The Jimmy V foundation as part of playing in the Agbo Superhero League. You can view the league by clicking here. I finished fourth, as Dalvin Cook’s injury in the semis crushed me and Jameis Winston’s egg in the finals did me in. Live by the Jameis, die by the Jameis.
Also, as he does every year, my friend Michael Gehlken has posted his list of charities supported by NFL players. If a player has helped you win a title, Michael suggests donating a portion of your winnings to a charity that player supports. You can see the list as my pinned tweet on my Twitter or on Michael’s twitter, @GehlkenNFL.
Below is my Love/Hate for the week, where the “hates” are pretty thin. It’s the result of some teams not playing their best players. Do you really need me to tell you to bench Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen? I didn’t want to force names in here during such a critical week.
This is my last column for a long, long time, so I’d like to take a moment to thank “Thirsty” Kyle Soppe and “The Stat-a-Pillar,” Damian Dabrowski, for their help with this each week, as well as “Not Cool” Keith Lipscomb for his editing prowess. And thank you all so much for continuing to read, react and engage. It’s truly a privilege and one I don’t take lightly.
So, for one last time in 2019 … let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks I love in Week 17
Kyler Murray, Cardinals (at Rams): As of this writing, the expectation is Murray should play. But even if he plays, will he run as much coming off a hamstring scare? One thing the Rams do well is create pressure; they do so at the third-highest rate in the NFL. When Murray has been pressured this season, he has just a 38.5% completion rate and just one TD along with five interceptions. Murray went 19-for-34 for 163 yards and no TDs (one INT) in Week 13 vs. the Rams (he did run for a score in that one), finishing with just over 13 points for a QB20 finish. All that plus the health concerns and he’s a pass for me, even in deeper leagues.
Running backs I love in Week 17
Joe Mixon, Bengals (vs. Browns): Despite late reports of a stomach bug, Mixon got plenty of work last weekend and now has at least 23 touches in all four of his games this month. That volume should come in handy against a Browns squad that has the NFL’s second-worst run defense the past four weeks and gives up a whopping 3.5 yards per carry before first contact, most in the NFL. It’s no surprise 39.4% of yards vs. Cleveland have been gained via the rush (second most). Mixon has been used more in the passing game — he has at least 20 receiving yards in four consecutive games, the longest streak of his career — making him an easy top-12 play in Week 17.
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Devonta Freeman, Falcons (at Buccaneers): I can’t imagine benching him after last weekend, but he will be hard pressed to repeat that terrific performance. The Bucs are allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry this season and a league-low 4.3 yards per pass attempt to RBs this season. Freeman has fewer than 55 rushing yards in six of his past seven games, so he’s going to need passing-game usage and a touchdown. He certainly has been used in the passing game, as four of Freeman’s six touchdowns this season have come on catches. The issue is Tampa Bay’s No. 1 run defense has allowed just one receiving touchdown to a running back all season. I have Freeman just outside my top 20 for the week.
Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers (vs. Falcons): I hear you. He was great last weekend, ultimately finishing as RB9. But look closer. He had 14 carries for 77 yards and a score vs. Houston, but 49 of those yards came on a single carry. His other 13 carries on Saturday netted 28 yards, with exactly zero yards after first contact. Only twice this season has Jones scored double-digit points in consecutive games. To wit (something I’ve always wanted to write), in the three games prior to Week 16 he had just 28 carries for 67 yards (2.4 yards per carry). The Bucs ran as much as they did last weekend because Jameis Winston was bad, even for Jameis. But I expect smoother sailing for Winston this weekend against Atlanta, meaning less running will be required. Also, knowing the Bucs, it’s just as likely it’ll be Peyton Barber getting the carries. Jones is merely a cross-your-fingers-and-hope flex for me this weekend.
Pass-catchers I love in Week 17
Tyler Higbee, Rams (vs. Cardinals): Yeah, yeah, start your tight ends against the Cardinals. But can we take a minute to appreciate how great Higbee has been? Since Week 13, Higbee ranks top three among all players — not tight ends, all players — in receptions, yards, targets and red zone targets. Not Tony Gonzalez, not Antonio Gates, not Gronk, but Tyler Higbee is the first tight end in NFL history to have four straight seven-catch, 100-yard games. Yes, Gerald Everett is back. He played four snaps last weekend. Higbee signed a four-year, $31 million contract extension in September. The only non-QB with at least 18.5 fantasy points in each of the past four weeks, Higbee has seen a spike in slot usage since Week 10. Opponents are averaging 9.6 yards per slot attempt vs. Arizona this season (second most). Oh, and you know, tight ends against Arizona.
Allen Robinson II, Bears (at Vikings): After the Vikings couldn’t hold Davante Adams to just 12 receptions or Aaron Jones to just 140 rushing yards on Monday night to cost me a championship by one point, you might think I am using my column in a petty manner to point out how awful Mike Zimmer’s Vikings defense is. You would be right. How the heck do you not show up to play in a prime-time game, at home, with the division on the line, in Week 16? Horrific. Embarrassing. Brutal. And this is coming from a Redskins fan. I know pathetic excuses for play when I see them. I have a lot of practice. Anyway, Robinson is a great start this weekend against a Vikings team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs, has allowed opponents to catch targets at the fourth-highest rate and has coughed up 18 touchdowns to WRs this season (tied for the sixth most). The Vikings are bad and they move to the top of my naughty list for 2019, just ahead of LeSean McCoy. So yeah, A-Rob is a top-10 play this weekend.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (vs. Raiders): With 10-plus targets in consecutive games and at least seven targets in 13 of 15 games this season, it doesn’t matter who is under center for the Broncos. Whoever it is, he is throwing to Sutton. And this weekend, those throws will be successful. Oakland is bottom five in deep receptions allowed, deep TDs allowed and completion percentage on deep passes. In fact, 23.9% of all pass attempts against the Raiders travel at least 15 yards in the air, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. And in all of Drew Lock’s starts that were NOT at Arrowhead, he has a 73.9% completion rate, six touchdowns and two interceptions on 88 attempts in three games. I have Sutton as a top-10 play this weekend.
