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EDITOR PICKS

  • Watch: Carvajal's header delivers killer blow for Madrid in UCL final

  • An introduction to Top Soccer News on theScore ??

  • An introduction to Top Soccer News on theScore ??

  • Real Madrid beat Dortmund to win 15th European Cup

NFL

Every NFL team's record vs. the spread and Week 3 preview

9:00 AM ET

  • Kyle SoppeESPN

It’s rare that bookmakers show a sign of weakness, but we’ve got a trend to monitor as you prepare for Week 3, the last weekend of the month. In September games since the beginning of last season, under tickets have cashed 78.6% of the time when the over/under is set under 45 points. That number is down a considerable amount from the September rate over the previous decade (49.1%) and got me to thinking – do sportsbooks underestimate just how bad the bad teams are?

The thought behind that hypothesis is that low totals often involve at least one bad offense and, in this era of professional football, a bad offense is more often than not a bad team. This train of thinking gained some steam when I looked at games in which a team was favored by more than a touchdown.

1 Related

So we’ve got big favorites covering and low totals going under. To me, that reflects an underestimation of dominance. Now, it is worth noting, that overs connected on 53.9% of games in that low total window after September ended last season, so it’s possible that this “flaw” is rectified sooner than later. Understanding that, we do have another week of September and we have plenty of low total spots in Week 3. There aren’t many big favorites (the Bengals and Rams are both road teams favored by more than a field goal), but if the books are underestimating how bad some of these offenses are … two of them playing in the same game (Texans/Bears, Falcons/Seahawks, Cowboys/Giants), feels favorable if you’re buying this trend.

Here are our ATS standings, matchups and betting nugget for each team, updated weekly.


NFL ATS trends

ATS TRENDS W-L-T PCT
Away teams 14-17-1 45.2%
Home teams 17-14-1 54.8%
Favorites 13-17-1 43.3%
Underdogs 17-13-1 56.7%
Away favorites 5-8-1 44.4%
Away underdogs 9-8 52.9%
Home favorites 8-9 47.1%
Home underdogs 8-5-1 55.6%
TOTAL TRENDS COUNT PCT
Over 10 31.3%
Under 21 65.6%
Push 1 3.1%

Thursday

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns


Steelers ATS: 1-0-1
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Steelers: Over their past four road divisional games, the Steelers are 3-0 ATS when the under hits and 0-1 when the over comes through.

Browns ATS: 1-1
O/U: 2-0
What we know about the Browns: The Browns have dropped four straight ATS against the division and have failed to cover in each of their past five against the Black and Gold.


Sunday, 1p games

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins


Bills ATS: 2-0
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Bills: The Bills failed to cover three of Josh Allen’s first four starts on short rest, but they’ve covered four of five since. Buffalo finds itself in such a spot.

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Dolphins ATS: 2-0
O/U: 1-1

What we know about the Dolphins: Under tickets have cashed in six of Tua Tagovailoa’s nine divisional starts (including both starts against the Bills last season).


Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets


Bengals ATS: 0-2
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Bengals: Cincy has covered in 16 of their past 17 outright wins.

Jets ATS: 1-1
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Jets: The Jets have failed to cover in five of their past six games as a home underdog (lost by 15 in Week 1 as the host of 6.5-point favorite Baltimore).


Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings


Lions ATS: 2-0
O/U: 2-0
What we know about the Lions: Detroit has failed to cover six of their past eight divisional road games. That said, they broke away from their struggles in their last such game, a 2-point loss as a 10-point underdog in Minnesota (Week 5).

Vikings ATS: 1-1
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Vikings: The Vikings haven’t seen consecutive divisional games go under the total since December of 2019. They played Green Bay in Week 1 and the game went under by 16.5 points.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears


Texans ATS: 2-0
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Texans: Dating back to last season, the Texans have covered three straight games. They haven’t covered four in-a-row since the final three games of 2015 and the first game of 2016.

Bears ATS: 1-1
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Bears: Baby steps. After failing to cover five straight at Solider Field, Da Bears have covered consecutive home games (won outright in Week 1 as a 6.5-point underdog against the 49ers).


Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts


Chiefs ATS: 1-1
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Chiefs: Be careful in blindly backing Patrick Mahomes on extended rest: the books are well aware. The Chiefs are just 7-6-1 ATS in the Mahomes era when having at least seven days off (unders are 7-6 in those games).

Colts ATS: 0-2
O/U: 0-2
What we know about the Colts: The Colts have failed to cover four straight games and have seen each of their past seven games go under the total.


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers


Saints ATS: 0-2
O/U: 1-1
What we know about the Saints: The Saints have covered six of their past eight games in Carolina, but bookmakers have been handicapping those matchups pretty accurately. Of those eight games, six saw a team cover by less than a touchdown.

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Soccer

Watch: Sane slices through Barcelona to seal Bayern's win

The seas parted for Leroy Sane.

The rapid German winger sealed Bayern Munich’s 2-0 win over Barcelona in Tuesday’s marquee Champions League contest, racing right through the middle of the pitch before sliding the ball home for his team’s second goal of the match early in the second half.

(Available to view in U.S. only)

LEROY SANE ?

BAYERN WITH TWO GOALS IN FOUR MINUTES OVER BARCELONA ? pic.twitter.com/J7VIbZTByf

— CBS Sports Golazo ?? (@CBSSportsGolazo) September 13, 2022

(Available to view in Canada only)

Leroy Sane puts @FCBayernUS in complete control ?

THAT PACE ? pic.twitter.com/yspY3YlE8W

— DAZN Canada (@DAZN_CA) September 13, 2022

Sane’s goal came just four minutes after Lucas Hernandez gave the home team the lead with a close-range header.

Soccer

Watch: Haaland sinks former club Dortmund with incredible Zlatan-esque goal

Erling Haaland leapt high in the air to score one of the most spectacular goals you’ll ever see in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Haaland swung his left foot at Joao Cancelo’s tantalizing cross to power home the winning goal in the 84th minute of Manchester City’s 2-1 comeback win over Borussia Dortmund.

Four minutes earlier, John Stones canceled out Jude Bellingham’s opening goal with a howitzer from 20 yards.

Haaland, though, will take the headlines. He now has a scarcely believable 26 goals in 21 career Champions League matches.

(Available to view in U.S. only)

IT HAD TO BE ERLING HAALAND AGAINST HIS FORMER CLUB ? pic.twitter.com/QSmZ6COy8H

— CBS Sports Golazo ?? (@CBSSportsGolazo) September 14, 2022

(Available to view in Canada only)

WHO ELSE?! ?

ERLING HAALAND GIVES @ManCityUS THE LEAD ? pic.twitter.com/YlKJqD6RFe

— DAZN Canada (@DAZN_CA) September 14, 2022

Haaland now has 13 goals in his first eight competitive matches for Manchester City, and his latest tally has the Premier League side on top of Group G with six points from two games.

Soccer

5 thoughts from Tuesday's Champions League action

The Champions League rumbles on with Matchday 2 this week. Below, we dissect the biggest talking points from Tuesday’s action in Europe’s premier club competition.

Son becoming a big problem for Conte

Son Heung-Min has now gone eight games without a goal, and if his performance in Tottenham Hotspur’s surprising 2-0 defeat to Sporting CP on Tuesday is any indication, the drought will continue for some time.

Many expected Son to take his game to the next level, and rightfully so. The South Korean forward finished the 2021-22 Premier League season with 12 goals in his final 10 appearances, enough to earn him a share of the Golden Boot award. But his form in front of goal since the start of August has dropped dramatically. Son’s failed to convert any of his 18 attempts on goal, and only half of those have been on target.

Son didn’t register a single shot Tuesday against Sporting ‘keeper Antonio Adan, and one of his only two touches in the penalty area came from an offside position. He just couldn’t connect with the rest of his teammates. Clearly frustrated, Spurs boss Antonio Conte replaced him after 72 minutes – and Son’s lucky he even lasted that long.

Soccrates Images / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The 30-year-old’s substitute Dejan Kulusevski showed much more attacking impetus in the final quarter of an hour, appearing on the left and right to create chances. With Richarlison also comfortable playing on the left wing, Son’s place in Conte’s starting lineup could, and probably should, come under scrutiny.

Richarlison has played extremely well in his limited time on the pitch, showing greater compatibility with Harry Kane and the will to get into scoring positions. Initially signed to provide depth, the Brazilian forward could now earn a significant run in the team, with Kane up front and Kulusevski returning to his usual place on the right. That spells trouble for Son, whose native South Korea is banking on him to lead the way in the World Cup. But Conte can’t afford to wait for anyone – not even one of the Premier League’s best players.

That’s more like it, Liverpool

Jurgen Klopp got the response he demanded.

In a game Liverpool desperately needed to win after opening their Champions League campaign with an embarrassing defeat, Klopp’s men delivered a strong defensive performance on their way to beating Ajax 2-1 and picking up their first three points of the tournament.

The result offered a huge boost for a Liverpool side that was left reeling after last week’s abysmal performance in Italy.

In the aftermath of the 4-1 loss to Napoli, there was plenty of uncertainty about the Reds’ ability to rebound from what Klopp described as the team’s “worst” performance since his arrival. Klopp delivered “four or five days of absolute truth” to his struggling squad.

Although Liverpool’s route to victory was anything but direct, the rallying cry seemingly worked. After Mohamed Salah’s first-half goal, poor play from Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk was largely responsible for Ajax’s equalizer before halftime. The Reds’ attack went sterile after the break until unlikely hero Joel Matip’s 89th-minute winner sent Anfield into a frenzy.

10 – Joël Matip’s 89th minute winner was his 10th goal for Liverpool in all competitions with the Reds avoiding defeat in all 10 of those matches he’s scored in (W9 D1). Relief. pic.twitter.com/yqk4yyjPk8

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 13, 2022

Although Liverpool have a ways to go before they’re comparable to the outfit that dazzled last season, Tuesday’s victory was undoubtedly a relief for a club that’s underachieved for much of the season so far.

When heavyweights collide

That was fun.

Bayern Munich and Barcelona, familiar foes in recent seasons, delivered a rousing spectacle in Bavaria on Tuesday. It was only a group-stage affair, but the almost unhinged intensity and elite skill on display were befitting of a final. Both teams pressed fiercely, trying to play on the front foot and not allow their illustrious opposition any time to breathe. Tackles were flying, and bodies were often strewn across the pitch as the two sides went blow-for-blow, racing up and down the field and exchanging rapid attacks peppered with quick, clever passing sequences and exquisite dribbling.

Alphonso Davies and the rejuvenated Ousmane Dembele – and fellow winger Raphinha – engaged in a series of explosive tussles that were as entertaining as the actual match itself. A game within the game. Teenage midfielders Pedri and Gavi were two standout players in the first half as Barcelona, looking to regain their status as Europe’s elite footballing institution, played with the incisiveness, inventiveness, and swagger of their peak years. The club’s financial future may be tenuous, but things look bright on the pitch.

But Bayern, despite still looking vulnerable defensively when put under pressure, didn’t crack. Julian Nagelsmann’s decision to introduce Leon Goretzka to begin the second half was vital, and the German juggernaut helped turn the tide in his side’s eventual 2-0 victory.

Bayern are now unbeaten in their last 30 Champions League group stage games:

WWWWWDWWWDWWWWWWWWWWDWWWWWWWWW

Unstoppable. ? pic.twitter.com/wgModRVRLD

— Squawka (@Squawka) September 13, 2022

“In the first half we had a lot of chances to score, and when you forgive so much against a team like this, you end up paying for it,” Pedri, wise beyond his years, said following the defeat.

Those ebbs and flows are the hallmarks of memorable Champions League nights.

The group stage of Europe’s premier club competition has been increasingly neutered as the gulf between football’s wealthy elite and everyone else has continued to grow over the years, making it more difficult for Cinderella stories to develop. But Tuesday’s clash at the Allianz Arena was a reminder of everything that’s still good about the tournament. When heavyweights collide, it’s still the most riveting show around.

Lewandowski’s rare off night

Captivating as Tuesday’s match in Bavaria was, it didn’t quite go according to plan for Robert Lewandowski.

The prolific Pole, who scored 344 goals in 375 Bayern appearances before departing for Barcelona this past summer, was given a predominantly warm reception upon his return. But a smattering of boos emanated from a fan base that isn’t totally at peace with the acrimonious nature of Lewandowski’s departure. Not quite hostile, but there was tension in the air.

“I think for Lewy, it was really an emotional game to come back,” said Bayern captain Manuel Neuer after the match. It’s impossible to know if that harmed the forward – even the most accomplished veterans can get butterflies – but whatever the reason, Lewandowski was just slightly off at the Allianz Arena. A rare sight over the years.

Robert Lewandowski had more shots (5-4) and had a higher xG (0.54-0.32) than the entire Bayern side combined in the first half at the Allianz Arena.

All that was missing was a goal on his return. ?#UCL pic.twitter.com/ZJCEljPrIy

— Squawka (@Squawka) September 13, 2022

The 34-year-old spurned two glorious opportunities in the first half, whistling a volley just over the crossbar from inside the box before sending a close-range header at the back post right into Neuer’s chest. Another good chance went begging when Noussair Mazraoui made a last-ditch block late in the first half. From there, Bayern’s defenders corralled him, and whenever Barca did scamper forward menacingly, Lewandowski couldn’t find the right timing and connect with his teammates.

Lewandowski had nine goals in his first six games with Barcelona going into Tuesday’s encounter, but his dream start to the season ended with a thud in the one match he was surely more excited about than any other.

What’s happening in Group B!?

This comes with the caveat that it’s still very early – we’re only two games into this campaign’s Champions League, after all. But Group B, against all odds, is already shaping up to be a wild ride.

Club Brugge sit atop the quartet with a perfect record after waltzing into the Estadio do Dragao, a typically intimidating venue, and crushing FC Porto on Tuesday. Despite losing Charles De Ketelaere over the summer, the Belgian club certainly wasn’t lacking an attacking spark in its 4-0 rout.

MIGUEL RIOPA / AFP / Getty

The surprises didn’t stop there, though, as Bayer Leverkusen put their woeful early-season form behind them to claim a 2-0 win against overwhelming group favorites Atletico Madrid. Leverkusen went into the match having lost six of their eight games in all competitions to begin the new campaign, so naturally, they shut down Diego Simeone’s side. Throw all reason out the window.

Group B, viewed after the draw as lacking much intrigue or excitement, is flipping the script.

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Soccer

  • Watch: Carvajal's header delivers killer blow for Madrid in UCL final

  • An introduction to Top Soccer News on theScore ??

  • An introduction to Top Soccer News on theScore ??

  • Real Madrid beat Dortmund to win 15th European Cup

  • Police arrest dozens of ticket-less fans at Wembley final

  • Dortmund boss Terzic lauds 'brilliant' Sancho after UCL defeat

  • Modric, Kroos among Madrid stars to make history with latest UCL triumph

  • Madrid's inevitability is a superpower no rival can match

  • Transfer window preview: 50 players who could move this summer

  • Vinicius Jr. named Champions League Player of the Season

“If you think about it, I've never held a job in my life. I went from being an NFL player to a coach to a broadcaster. I haven't worked a day in my life.”
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