The NFC and AFC conference championships are set. The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs with a trip to Super Bowl LIX on the line.
To look ahead at next weekend’s conference championship matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the divisional round. Seth Walder explored how each team can advance, and Matt Bowen picked an early X factor. We also provided opening lines from ESPN BET and game projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Jump to a matchup:
WSH-PHI | BUF-KC
NFC
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI projection: PHI, 63.7% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Opening line: PHI -5.5 (48.5)
Matchup background: These two NFC East rivals split the series this season. The Eagles took the first game in November 26-18 and the Commanders won the December battle 36-33, though Jalen Hurts exited due to a concussion in the first quarter. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels fared well against the Eagles in 2024; he combined for 449 passing yards, a 78.2 QBR, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Philadelphia and Washington last met during the playoffs in 1990; Washington won 20-6. — ESPN
Stat to know: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has had his way against Washington in his career, averaging just over 137 scrimmage yards per game. The only player to average more scrimmage yards against a single opponent in NFL history is Hall of Famer Jim Brown against the Eagles (minimum of 10 games, including playoffs). — ESPN Research
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Early X factor: Eagles defensive tackle
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount)
FPI projection: BUF, 54.6% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Opening line: KC -1.5 (48.5)
Matchup background: This will be the ninth meeting between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. They are 4-4 in head-to-head meetings, but Mahomes holds a 3-0 lead over Allen in the postseason. The Bills and Chiefs met in Week 11 this season; Buffalo earned the victory 30-21 in Kansas City’s only loss this season when the Chiefs played their starters. These two teams faced off in last season’s divisional round, and the Chiefs won 27-24. — ESPN
Stat to know: The Bills are seeking to be the third team since 2018 to beat the Chiefs twice in a season (2018 Patriots and 2021 Bengals). — ESPN Research
What we learned about the Chiefs in the divisional round: Kansas City will be difficult to beat as long as tight end Travis Kelce is rolling. Against the Texans, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster all failed to catch a pass, and Xavier Worthy had a pedestrian game. But the Chiefs still found enough offense to score 23 points and advance to the AFC Championship Game because of Kelce.
Kelce had 117 receiving yards, more than half of the Chiefs’ total and more than double his season average of 56. He seemed refreshed coming off a three-week break after the Chiefs secured the top seed with one week left in the regular season. — Adam Teicher
What we learned about the Bills in the divisional round: Buffalo can finish close games in the postseason. In the past, the Bills have struggled in the playoffs to finish tight games and lost in the divisional round in three straight years. The performance against the Ravens showed that this Bills team can succeed even when it’s not pretty and can do so in all three phases. A big test awaits in Kansas City after losing to the Chiefs in all three of the teams’ playoff meetings since 2020. — Alaina Getzenberg
What to know for the NFL playoffs
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• First look at the conference title games
• Divisional round overreactions (ESPN+)
• 10 key divisional round plays (ESPN+)
Schedule | Bracket | Super Bowl LIX
Early X factor: Worthy. In coach Andy Reid’s system, Worthy can stretch the defense at the third level, which gives Mahomes an explosive target versus Buffalo’s secondary. Reid can also scheme Worthy on manufactured touches when the Chiefs have the ball inside the red zone. He brings a playmaking element to the offense. — Bowen
Why the Chiefs will win: They have individual players who can take over a game. Kelce, after a quiet regular season, showed he still has energy when he racked up seven receptions for 117 yards against the Texans. Chris Jones had just 5.0 sacks in the regular season but delivered far more pass rush wins (62) and pressures (50) than any other defensive tackle. Trent McDuffie was one of the best corners in the league. And we can’t deny that Mahomes can bring postseason magic at any moment this time of year. Even in a down year for the Chiefs quarterback, Kansas City has (rightfully) relied on him, with the second-highest pass rate over expectation in the league (plus-5%), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
On paper, the Chiefs should be underdogs. But the world has seen Mahomes come up big too many times to assume he won’t again. Add home-field advantage, and the Chiefs are almost as scary as ever. Almost. — Walder
Why the Bills will win: They’re the better team. Even entering Sunday, before beating the Ravens, FPI had the Bills 2.9 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. Why? Because they played better all season.
The Bills’ 0.25 EPA per dropback entering Sunday is almost double what the Chiefs (0.13) have put together this year. And they’ve been much better on the ground, too — with an 0.07 EPA per play compared with the Chiefs’ minus-0.03 (some of that is buoyed by Allen’s designed runs — but hey, that will help in the AFC Championship Game, too). The Bills have the quarterback who has played much better this year. Allen ranked first in QBR (77.3) this season (entering the game Sunday) while Mahomes ranked eighth (67.7), and Allen gets the benefit of playing behind the superior pass-protecting offensive line.
Buffalo has some pass defense questions. But offense is what drives wins in the NFL and on that side of the ball, the Bills have a clear edge. — Walder
