COSTA MESA, Calif. — A prescient Nick Saban predicted Antonio Gates’ career path when he was just a freshman at Michigan State.
Saban, then the head coach for the Spartans, recruited Gates to play football. However, he viewed Gates as a twitchy, pass-rushing defensive end. Gates, who had focused on basketball all his life, had other plans.
He wanted to play both sports at Michigan State. So he moved on to Eastern Michigan and then Kent State, where he led the Golden Flashes to the 2002 Elite Eight as a junior.
However, Saban offered Gates a few words of wisdom before they parted ways.
“In hindsight looking at it, he was a genius,” Gates said. “I was 17 years old, wanting to play the game of basketball. I hadn’t even turned 18 yet when I had this conversation with Nick Saban. He just always felt like my God-given abilities and the attributes that I was blessed with were very suited for what they were looking for on the next level [of football] — the professional level.”
Gates later faced Saban’s Miami Dolphins in the NFL. He finished with 13 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in a 23-21 loss during the 2005 season. The two met in the middle of the field afterward.
“He asked me after the game, ‘What did you think about that choice for football?'” Gates said. “The guy was a genius. He told me I was a first-round pick. I didn’t believe it in a sense. I just wanted to play the game of basketball.”
Gates’ choice proved Hall of Fame worthy. After 16 seasons, all with the Chargers, Gates retired this week.
Considering his numbers, he was among the best to play the position. He’s No. 3 among tight ends for total receptions (955) and receiving yards (11,841), behind Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten.
Gates ranks first in league history among tight ends with 21 career multi-touchdown games and fourth in the NFL with 21 100-yard receiving efforts. His 39 touchdown receptions on third down are the most in league history for a tight end and tied with Hall of Fame wide receiver Cris Carter for No. 3 overall.
According to Gates, what set him apart was his ability to get in the end zone. He ended up with 116 career touchdowns, tops for a tight end in NFL history.
every. single. td. pic.twitter.com/OP28zWTJBV
— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) January 17, 2020
Throughout his career, Gates was nearly impossible to guard in the red zone. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, 92 of Gates’ touchdowns came in the red zone — second all time and most of any player since he entered the league in 2003.
To hear him tell it, what made Gates unique was his ability to create separation with the precise body control developed on the hardwood floor as a smallish, wide-bodied, low-post player at Kent State.
Gates points to his basketball acumen for his unique ability to get open in the red zone, using soft hands and leverage to create separation against linebackers or safeties, or sometimes both.
“As I evolved to become the red zone threat, I noticed that every other team had started looking for red zone threats at that position,” Gates said when asked to make his case for the Hall of Fame. “That would be the majority of my case. The thing that I’ve always had in terms of respect is more respect from defensive coordinators than any other tight end in the history of the game.
“I’ve watched film on tight ends. I’ve watched film on all of them. I can recall playing a team and they did something, then when they played the Chargers, they didn’t quite do it the same. I feel like there was a ton of respect.
“For the most part, I was always faced with a defensive back. It was very rare that I got the opportunity to go up against a linebacker. Very rare. … Anytime I look at who’s the best or who is considered to be in the Hall of Fame, I consider the level of respect that coordinators or teams gave that particular person. That’s how I would like to be judged. That’s how I would explain it to [selectors] in Canton.”
Gates wanted to play one more season, but he could not find the right opportunity in free agency last year. The 39-year-old said the
The conference championships of the NFL playoffs have arrived, and we’re previewing Sunday’s pair of games: Titans-Chiefs in the AFC, and Packers-49ers in the NFC. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup to watch, ESPN Chalk’s Mackenzie Kraemer hands out helpful nuggets, and national NFL writer Kevin Seifert focuses in on each game’s officiating crew. It’s all here to help get you ready for an exciting weekend of NFL football.
Jump to: TEN-KC | GB-SF
AFC
3:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 84.9 | Spread: KC -7.5 (53)
What to watch for: Titans running back Derrick Henry isn’t the only storyline in this game, but it sure seems like it after he ran for 188 yards against the Chiefs in Week 10. Doing much better this time is a big thing for the Chiefs, who are 9-0 when allowing the opponent to rush for 110 yards or fewer — but 4-4 when allowing more. — Adam Teicher
NFL PrimeTime continues this postseason with extended highlights and analysis following the conclusion of each day’s playoff games. Watch on ESPN+
Bold prediction: All of the focus on stopping Henry will make the Chiefs’ defense more vulnerable to the passing game. After totaling 160 yards in the previous two games, Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill will capitalize on one-on-one coverage, throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Chiefs wide receivers had 13 plays with the ball carrier reaching 20-plus mph this season, the most in the NFL. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman both have six such plays, tied for the most among receivers in 2019. In addition, the Chiefs’ wideouts have been open (3-plus yards of separation, per NFL Next Gen Stats) on 45.6% of their targets, the highest rate in the NFL.
Key matchup: Titans’ deep-ball play-action vs. the Chiefs’ secondary. Even if the Titans do control tempo with Henry, the Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes will still get eight or nine possessions. So the Titans need points in this one, and explosive-play opportunities off play-action offer an opportunity. Look for Tennessee to dial up some shot play throws for Tannehill here. Bring in your big-boy personnel, sell the run and push the ball over the top to Kalif Raymond or A.J. Brown. Read more.
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Betting nugget: Sunday will be the fifth time this season that Tennessee has been an underdog of at least four points. It won each of the first four outright, including beating Kansas City in Week 10. Tennessee is also the fifth team to win its wild-card and divisional-round games as underdogs of at least four points. But the previous four teams were 0-4 outright and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in the conference title games. Read more.
Officiating nugget: Referee Tony Corrente will get another shot after an eventful wild-card game in Houston, where he had to be talked out of awarding a fraudulent touchdown to the Bills. Corrente’s regular-season crew threw an average of 17.1 flags per game, the fifth most in the NFL.
Davenport’s pick: Titans 28, Chiefs 24
Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 28, Titans 17
FPI prediction: KC, 75.1% (by an average of 8.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: The first $40 million-a-year QB? NFL execs predict Mahomes’ potential payday … One of Andy Reid’s biggest wins — but is the best still yet to come? … Fortune favors the bold: QB wasn’t a need when Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes … Chiefs sound drained at mere prospect of facing Derrick Henry again … Damien Williams at long last establishes himself in Chiefs backfield … From Dolphins discard to Titans treasure, Ryan Tannehill had ‘to move on’ … How two trades helped catapult the Titans to the AFC title game … How the Titans pulled the stunner to beat Lamar Jackson, and what’s next … Lessons from baseball helped Titans’ A.J. Brown blossom at football
NFC
6:40 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 74.4 | Spread: SF -7.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: While Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has expressed his team’s need to forget the 49ers’ 37-8 drubbing of the Packers in November, Packers coach Matt LaFleur has talked about needing to revisit and learn from it. The Niners are healthier than they were in that first meeting, but a regular-season drubbing guarantees nothing in the playoffs. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this marks the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that two teams will meet in the playoffs after one beat the other by at least 25 points during the regular season. The team that won the first meeting is 22-14 in the ensuing matchup, but the team that best maintains focus on the task at hand will move on to the Super Bowl. — Nick Wagoner
What you need to know:
• Full playoff schedule »
• First look at GB-SF, TEN-KC »
• Answering four big questions »
• Super Bowl LIV coverage »
More NFL coverage »
Bold prediction: Packers receiver Davante Adams will come close to the team playoff record of 160 yards receiving he set last week against the Seahawks. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was 0-of-8 on throws 10-plus yards downfield against the San Francisco defense in the Week 12 loss — his most such passes in a game without a single completion, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Look for that to change Sunday as he and LaFleur devise different ways to attack the 49ers. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Both teams added a pair of pass-rushers this offseason. The Packers’ Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith were the only pair of teammates with 12.0 sacks each in the regular season, and they each had 2.0 in the divisional-round game. The 49ers, meanwhile, have recorded a sack on 17.3% of dropbacks with both Nick Bosa and Dee Ford on the field and just 5.7% with either or both off. The NFL average sack rate is 6.5%.
Key matchup: 49ers’ pass rush vs. the Packers’ offensive line. The 49ers are loaded on the defensive line with Bosa, Ford, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. That’s the best nickel front in the NFL. Look for San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to scheme pass-rush matchups with his personnel out of multiple fronts and alignments. That allows the 49ers to bump Bosa and Ford inside, or use twist stunts to open up rush lanes. The pressure here is on the Packers’ offensive line to protect Rodgers. Read more.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is the fourth team to win at least 13 games during the regular season and then be an underdog of at least seven points in its conference title game. Each of the previous three won the game outright. This is the fourth time Rodgers has been an underdog of at least seven points, and he is 0-3 outright — but 3-0 ATS — in the previous three games. Read more.
Officiating nugget: Referee John Hussey’s regular-season crew threw an average of 14.9 flags per game, fourth fewest in the NFL. His crew called the second-fewest penalties for offensive holding (38), one of the handful of fouls for which referees are responsible.
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 28, 49ers 27
Wagoner’s pick: 49ers 30, Packers 20
FPI prediction: SF, 71.9% (by an average of 7.6 points)
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It wasn’t solely because of their pass-rush that the Seahawks were a bottom-third defense by most measures. They missed too many tackles, struggled against the run and got suspect play out of some of their defensive backs.
Then again, more heat on the opposing quarterback would have made life a lot easier for that group. The Seahawks had the third-lowest rate of pressure on opponents’ dropbacks, at 22.9%, per ESPN charting. They were 16th, at 42.8%, in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate. That was with Clowney finishing fifth in individual PRWR, at 24.8%.
Clowney was the only part of the Seahawks’ plan to replace Frank Clark that worked. They hardly got anything from Ezekiel Ansah (another pending free agent) and even less from L.J. Collier, whom they drafted with the extra first-round pick they acquired in the Clark trade.
The Seahawks can’t tag Clowney and thus can’t keep him from reaching the open market, where his price could skyrocket, as he is one of the best available players at one of the most sought-after positions. It won’t be impossible to re-sign him, but it’ll be difficult.
After pulling off a blockbuster trade to acquire Clowney last summer, Schneider might have to do something equally creative and drastic to replace him. Even if the Seahawks are able to keep Clowney, 2019 made it all too clear that they’ll need more around him.
Here’s what else you need to know about Seattle’s offseason:
The rest of the free agents
Former sixth-round pick Joey Hunt replaced an injured Jusitn Britt at center and is a restricted free agent. Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire
