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Dan Graziano
ARLINGTON, Texas — Week 7 has a weighty feel to it. It no longer feels early in the NFL season. We’re in the thick of it now, with nearly two months’ worth of evidence to support our opinions of these teams and these players. What might have felt like an overreaction in Week 2 feels less like one now.
This is also the point in the season when coaches get tired of underreacting. On Sunday, Jets coach Aaron Glenn seemed to have finally grown tired of watching Justin Fields’ complete inability to sense or react to pressure, as he benched Fields for Tyrod Taylor in the second half of New York’s latest lackluster loss.
Miami coach Mike McDaniel sat Tua Tagovailoa down for Quinn Ewers in the fourth quarter of a game that saw Tagovailoa throw three interceptions and the Dolphins lose 31-6 to a Browns team that hadn’t scored more than 17 points since last December. Trevor Lawrence, Spencer Rattler and Geno Smith didn’t get pulled from their games, but it feels like there are fair questions about them that their coaches will have to answer this week.
Yeah, Week 7 feels like the point when it starts to get real. With that in mind, let’s start the Overreactions column, where we sort through the weekly overreactions to try to figure out which ones might hold up and which ones are mirages.
Jump to:
Vikings should have brought Darnold back?
Chiefs headed back to the Super Bowl?
Bengals can win AFC North?
Three NFC South teams in playoffs?
Chargers need to trade for OL help?
Four fantasy-related overreactions
The Vikings should have re-signed Sam Darnold
Minnesota let Darnold leave in free agency after he threw 35 touchdown passes and led the team to 14 wins because it wanted to give the starting QB job to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. Darnold is crushing it in Seattle, ranking third in QBR, passer rating and passing yards entering Sunday. Meanwhile, McCarthy played two very shaky-looking games to start the season, got hurt in the second one and hasn’t played since. His backup, Carson Wentz, threw two first-half interceptions in Sunday’s loss to the Eagles.
The only other quarterback on the Vikings’ roster is undrafted rookie Max Brosmer. They’ve told us they won’t decide on whether McCarthy gets the starting job back until his sprained ankle has healed enough for him to be able to play. But nothing we’ve seen from the Vikings’ 2025 quarterback room so far has given us reason to feel confident they have the answer. To make matters even worse, Daniel Jones, who finished the 2024 season as Darnold’s backup, is playing great as the starter for the Colts.
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Eagles’ defense take Carson Wentz INT the other way for a pick-six
Jalyx Hunt picks off Carson Wentz and goes 42 yards for an Eagles touchdown.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
This is a flip-flop, and I’ll own it. I supported the Vikings’ decision to roll with McCarthy, the 10th pick in last year’s draft, while letting both Darnold and Jones walk and telling Aaron Rodgers no thanks. It was a bet on head coach Kevin O’Connell and his proven ability to generate offense with a variety of different quarterbacks. I figured if O’Connell decided this was the way to go, he’d earned enough trust that we should believe him. And maybe he’ll be right eventually.
But it’s about time to stop predicting and start knowing. The Vikings made six trips to the red zone in Sunday’s game against the Eagles and came away with one touchdown and five field goals, helping them lose a winnable game. Darnold is fourth in the NFL this season in red zone QBR. The Vikings have 11 more games this season to prove O’Connell’s decision right. But the first six have shown it to be worth questioning.
The Chiefs are going back to the Super Bowl
Remember when the Chiefs were 0-2, couldn’t score points and everyone was wondering if this was the end of the dynasty? Yeah, me too. Feels like it was a lot longer than five weeks ago, too.
With top wide receiver Rashee Rice back from his six-game suspension on Sunday, the Chiefs annihilated the division rival Raiders 31-0 to improve to 4-3. It was dominance on a level we haven’t seen from the Chiefs in recent seasons. They outgained Las Vegas 434-95. They had 30 first downs. The Raiders ran a total of 30 offensive plays. Since that 0-2 start, the Chiefs are 4-1 and are averaging 29.6 points per game. It feels like maybe those who were concerned after Week 2 might have been … dare I say … overreacting?
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Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Who else do you feel great about in the AFC? The Bills have lost two in a row after a 4-0 start and don’t look great. The Patriots look great, but it also feels a little early for them. The Colts? Maybe. The Broncos and Chargers? Not exactly Greatest Show on Turf-type offenses. Anyone from the AFC North? Not right now, that’s for sure.
Always remember that if Patrick Mahomes were to lose this season’s AFC Championship Game in regulation, that would be the earliest a Chiefs season has ended since he became the starter in 2018. There’s a long way to go, and no one’s saying a victory over the Raiders makes you a Super Bowl team. But in a season in which it feels like we have no idea who the best teams are, the Chiefs have the track record we can believe in.
The Bengals can still win the AFC North
The week kicked off with a massive AFC North result — a victory by Joe Flacco and the Bengals over the first-place Steelers on Thursday night. It stopped a four-game Bengals losing streak that followed the injury to Joe Burrow, and it brought the Steelers back closer to a pack of division teams whose seasons haven’t gone as expected.
The 1-5 Ravens, who will likely get Lamar Jackson back from injury next week after their bye and have both head-to-head matchups against the Steelers left to play, have some level of hope now that Pittsburgh is 4-2 instead of 5-1. As for the Bengals, whose offense has shown life in the two games since they acquired Flacco to replace the struggling Jake Browning, being 3-4 and only 1½ games out of first place feels worlds better than being 2-5 and 3½ games behind Pittsburgh.
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Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I still think this Steelers team has played way over its head. It should have lost to the Jets in Week 1 and it barely beat the Patriots in Week 3, when New England committed five turnovers. Pittsburgh’s defense has been terrible outside of one game against the Browns. Rodgers is playing fine, but the offense still feels like it has a ceiling and needs to be paired with an elite defense to be a real contender.
That makes the Steelers vulnerable, which gives the rest of the division reason to hope, no matter how poorly things have gone so far. And if the Bengals think there’s any chance of Burrow returning before the end of the season, then they have as much reason for hope as anyone. All Flacco must do is keep them afloat, and if Pittsburgh comes back to earth, this division could have a frantic finish.
Three teams from the NFC South will make the playoffs
The four-time defending division champion Buccaneers go into Monday night’s game with a 5-1 record and quarterback Baker Mayfield playing like the league MVP. The Falcons enter Sunday night’s game with a 3-2 record and on a two-game win streak, with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. playing much better and the offense and defense both humming.
The Panthers are the story here, though. After Sunday’s 13-6 victory over the woebegone Jets, Carolina is 4-3 and on a three-game winning streak. It also has a very convincing 30-0 division victory over the Falcons in its pocket. It’s hard to truly know how the Panthers are doing it, but they’re finding ways to win games around third-year quarterback Bryce Young (who left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, which could dampen things) and an improved defense, and there’s always a team that emerges which no one saw coming.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Don’t we have to see the Falcons actually finish off one of these seasons before we fully buy in? They beat Tampa Bay twice last season and still couldn’t win the division. And Carolina still has road games to play in Green Bay, San Francisco, Atlanta and Tampa as well as home games against the Bills, Rams, Bucs and Seahawks. And even if he’s healthy, Young still hasn’t shown enough week-to-week consistency over the course of his career that we are ready to buy in on his chances to lead a team to the playoffs.
The Panthers deserve credit for surprising us so far, but it’d be a much bigger surprise if they can keep this going once the schedule gets tougher in the second half. Maybe they sneak in. Maybe this is the year the Falcons get in. But both? In addition to Tampa Bay? Feels like too much to ask.
The Chargers really need to trade for an offensive lineman
Quarterback Justin Herbert led a valiant comeback against the Colts in the second half on Sunday after a two-interception first half. The Chargers fell short against a Colts offense they couldn’t stop, but Herbert showed a strong connection with rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden II and the offense looked like it discovered something in the second half.
The problem is, Herbert was pressured on 57% of his dropbacks and was hit 15 times. This isn’t a new problem. Injuries to starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt have left Herbert a sitting duck way too often, and it’s hurting the offense’s chances of operating in rhythm.
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Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Acquiring a quality offensive lineman during the season is easier said than done, but the Chargers need to try. Alt could be back soon, but Slater is out for the season, and they obviously need depth as they work to improve Herbert’s protection. The Chargers opened the season with three straight division wins but are now tied for second in the AFC West.
The Broncos are in first place following a seemingly impossible comeback victory over the Giants on Sunday, and the Chiefs, as we discussed earlier, are heating up. That 3-0 division record gives the Chargers an advantage, but they need to stick with Denver and Kansas City to make that matter in the end. Los Angeles needs to be aggressively looking for help, or else it isn’t going to get the most out of Herbert and this offense. And speaking of the Chargers …
The Chargers should never wear those yellow uniforms again
I mean … yuck.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
They have such great uniforms! Why wear ones that look like you got doused in mustard?
Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions
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Xavier Legette is a prime waiver pickup this week. OVERREACTION. Nine catches, 92 yards and a touchdown! Where has this been from the 2024 first-rounder? Problem is, the focal point of the passing offense is 2025 first-rounder Tetairoa McMillan. And is this really a passing offense with multiple receiver options worth rostering? Legette is fine to have on the bench, but no need to overbid.
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Rashee Rice is a WR1 the rest of the way. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Chiefs people I’ve talked to have been giddy for the past three to four weeks about having Rice back and what that would mean to the offense. Although he might not score two touchdowns every week as part of a 31-point performance by the Chiefs, it’s clear that Rice is a major focal point of an elite offense whose quarterback is playing as well as any in the league. If you rode out the suspension, enjoy the reward.
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Quinshon Judkins is going to be on a ton of fantasy championship rosters. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Another dominant performance by the Browns’ rookie running back on Sunday stamps him as a clear RB1 going forward and the kind of player who can win you matchups by himself. He was basically free in drafts, since he wasn’t signed to the roster until the season started because of his off-field legal issues. He could still end up facing a suspension, but sometimes those get pushed off into the next season. Judkins might be the best value in fantasy this year.
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Quinshon Judkins scores his 3rd TD of the game
Quinshon Judkins runs in his third touchdown of the game for the Browns.
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The Cardinals’ fantasy stars need Jacoby Brissett to keep starting ahead of Kyler Murray. OVERREACTION. I get it. I do. The offense looks better with Brissett. But Murray’s absence also coincides with an easing of the fantasy schedule. Let’s let him get back in there and see if he can take advantage before giving up.
