The Kirk Cousins conundrum: How Brock Purdy's success has complicated Cousins' future

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San Francisco’s patience was tested right away, as it lost the first nine games of the Shanahan era. Just before that ninth loss, the Niners made a surprising deadline deal, sending a second-round pick to the Patriots for their backup quarterback, Garoppolo.

Niners general manager John Lynch even joked after the trade that Shanahan was in a bit of mourning because Cousins might be out of the picture. But after that deal, Shanahan and Lynch promised each other they weren’t going to dive into a long-term arrangement with Garoppolo without him proving himself.

“You think that [you’re going to get Cousins] all the way up to the moment,” Shanahan said. “When we got the opportunity that we traded for Jimmy, we were still thinking about it, but after those six games [Garoppolo] played we moved on, and we’ve moved on since then and really haven’t looked back.”

On Nov. 26, 2017, Garoppolo stepped in for an injured Beathard late in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. He threw a touchdown pass on the game’s final play, entered the starting lineup and went on to lead the Niners to five consecutive victories to close the season.

Even with Cousins set to become the rare Pro Bowl quarterback to hit free agency in his prime, the 49ers went all-in on Garoppolo, signing him to a then-record five-year, $137.5 million contract in February 2018. With the Niners out of the mix, Cousins signed a three-year, $84 million fully guaranteed contract with the Vikings in mid-March.

A couple weeks after the quarterback musical chairs had settled, Shanahan acknowledged the scuttled Cousins plan at the league meetings in Orlando, Florida. Shanahan said signing Cousins “was the plan” but that “something else came across us, and we are very happy that it did,” adding that he was “really happy how it ended up for all sides.”

In theory, that’s where the Cousins to San Francisco flirtation should have ended. But in the years since, both sides have been constantly reminded that the only real guarantees for NFL quarterbacks come in the form of the dollars spent on their contracts.

In a finishing flourish reminiscent of Garoppolo in 2017, San Francisco rattled off five straight wins to close the regular season with Purdy behind center. He also led the 49ers to two playoff wins, as they advanced to their second straight NFC Championship Game.

Although Purdy tore the UCL in his right elbow early in that NFC title game loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, he had done enough, once healthy, to earn first crack at the starting quarterback job for 2023 and beyond.

“I felt that with Jimmy when he was here, too,” Shanahan said. “I felt we had stability and everything and just those injuries were tough. And then Brock, when he came in last year, you’re not sure. You know how he is in practice. We knew he had an opportunity, a chance to be like that. But those seven games last year that he played in, you knew it pretty well.”

Before Purdy, the Niners’ offense had been good, but his knack for making plays off schedule, pushing the ball down the field and distributing it to his playmakers while making few mistakes elevated it.

In the 12 games before Purdy became the starter, the Niners’ offense averaged 23.5 points (13th in the NFL) and 357.9 yards per game (10th) and had a QBR of 54.4 (17th). Including the playoffs and six games this season, Purdy has started 14 games with the 49ers, leading them to 29.9 points (first) and 366.4 yards per game (eighth) and has a QBR of 70.6 (second). He’s 12-2 as a starter and won his first 10 regular-season games before last week’s loss to the Cleveland Browns.

So far, Purdy has offered the type of reliability the Niners have been desperately seeking. Tight end George Kittle can easily rattle off the names of all the quarterbacks he has played with and when he has played with them since he was part of Shanahan and Lynch’s first draft class in 2017.

“That’s all we are looking for is just consistent play and just the same guy out there no matter what’s happening,” Kittle said. “That’s all I really care about.”

Perhaps most important, Purdy has offered big-time production at small-time cost. He’s signed through the next three seasons at an average salary cap hit of $1,004,253 and can’t even negotiate an extension until after the 2024 season. Largely because of that, the Niners have been able to divert resources elsewhere, such as re-signing defensive end Nick Bosa and paying defensive tackle Javon Hargrave at or near the top of their respective markets.

According to OverTheCap, the 49ers have nearly $40 million in cap space, but that is mostly earmarked to roll over to next year. The current plan for that money is to retain more of their own players, such as receiver Brandon Aiyuk, rather than trying to land Cousins.

That’s not to say the Niners don’t still like or respect Cousins so much as it’s a reflection of how they view their current quarterback.

“He’s a quarterback that any team would like to have,” safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. said. “Unless you have Brock Purdy.”

A FEW YEARS ago, a well-known fact filtered down to the notoriously insulated Cousins: Former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck did not own a smartphone. Instead, he used a flip phone for texts and calls — and that’s it.

“I thought, ‘That’s pretty good,'” Cousins said. So he went into a store and picked one up himself. To Cousins, it was preferable to shut down access to news and other distractions than “deal with it affecting more important things.”

All of which was Cousins’ way of insisting that he didn’t know he has been the subject of public trade speculation ever since the Vikings’ slow start coincided with New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles tear. Cousins has a full no-trade clause, and citing his ongoing desire to live in a distraction-free world, declined to say whether he would ever consider waiving it.

It would require a “perfect storm” of circumstances to lead to a trade, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Ironically, the likeliest scenario could be a season-ending injury to Purdy before the Oct. 31 deadline. But while a midseason trade remains highly unlikely, there is no consensus either inside or outside the Vikings organization on whether Cousins will return for 2024.

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