As fantasy football draft season inches closer and closer, it’s time for our annual predictions of sleepers, busts and breakout players. Interpretations of the terms can vary for each, but here are the definitions for our purposes:
• Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position (ADP) in 2025. • Bust: A highly regarded player who will underperform in 2025, relative to his ADP/ranking. • Breakout: A player who will put up career-best numbers in 2025 and make a huge impact.
Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Tyler Fulghum, Eric Karabell, Eric Moody and Field Yates each contributed a sleeper and a bust for the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, as well as their analysis and insights on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.
Editor’s note: This story will be updated throughout the preseason.
Jump to: Sleepers | Busts | Breakouts
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Bowen: At 6-foot-1, 224 pounds with straight-line acceleration and vision, Kaleb Johnson is an easy fit for the outside zone scheme in Pittsburgh. He had 21 rushes of 20 or more yards last season at Iowa — the second most in the country behind Ashton Jeanty — and he can post receiving numbers on swings, screens and unders. Johnson will share the backfield with Jaylen Warren, but the early-down volume in a run-heavy offense can push him into the RB2 ranks.
Karabell: Some might fade Travis Hunter in fantasy because of concern with potential snaps as a two-way player, but the Jaguars seem more likely to use him on offense rather than at cornerback. Hunter offers immediate WR2 upside, with a competent QB in Trevor Lawrence and a legitimate WR1 in Brian Thomas Jr. drawing more attention, and at an odd fraction of the cost according to early ADP figures (Thomas 19.0, Hunter 68.6).
Clay: The 10th pick in April’s draft, Colston Loveland has a ton of competition for targets in Chicago, but he very well could demand a generous share right out of the gate, should he prove the real deal. Working with new coach Ben Johnson and second-year QB Caleb Williams, Loveland certainly could work his way to lineup lock status during his rookie campaign. Rookie tight ends have generally struggled to make Year 1 impacts, but times might be changing, considering a first-year player paced the position each of the past two seasons (Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers).
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year, so you’re likely drafting him at his fantasy ceiling. Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
Busts
Dopp:Baker Mayfield‘s ADP is between QB6 and QB7, which means you’re likely drafting him at his ceiling (unless you think he’ll best Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson this season). With offensive coordinator Liam Coen now the head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars and the questions surrounding Chris Godwin (injury) and Mike Evans (age), I’d rather draft someone with a little more headroom in their value.
Fulghum:James Cook screams regression candidate in 2025, especially with his ADP hovering around RB10 to RB12. Despite scoring a combined nine total TDs in his first two seasons, Cook exploded in 2024 with 18 total TDs — including a league-leading 16 on the ground. With Josh Allen continuing to dominate goal-line work and second-year RB Ray Davis earning more opportunities, Cook’s touchdown rate relative to his volume of touches is simply not sustainable.
Yates:DJ Moore is an excellent player who has shown himself to be a fantasy star. I’m bullish on QB Caleb Williams under Ben Johnson’s tutelage and think this offense could make a massive leap, but Moore’s outlook has me a little uneasy. The Bears selected tight end Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden III with their first two picks in the draft, adding two more pass-catchers to an offense that is already banking on a breakout year from second-year wideout Rome Odunze. While it’s easy to imagine Moore taking on an Amon-Ra St. Brown role under Johnson, it’s also possible the offense just has more balance overall, à la Detroit in 2024 (when St. Brown was a slightly steadier weekly option). Moore and Williams didn’t build as seamless a chemistry as I expected last season.
Moody: Kansas City’s Rashee Rice is being drafted as a top-20 WR despite major red flags. He’s coming off LCL surgery and faces a potential suspension (though one isn’t expected in 2025) and serious target competition from Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce. Rice flashed elite usage early last season (36% target share in three full games), but that production came during a stretch when Brown was injured and Worthy was still getting acclimated to the league (RB Isiah Pacheco also was sidelined). With just four career WR1 weekly finishes and no proven production in a full-strength offense, Rice’s ADP carries considerable risk.
Ashton Jeanty should enjoy success right out of the gate in a feature-back role for the Raiders. Ethan Miller/Getty Images
Breakouts
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: I’ll take the layup. The No. 6 pick in April’s draft, Jeanty is easily the top fantasy prospect in this rookie class following a dominant tenure at Boise State. With 33-year-old Raheem Mostert his top threat for touches, Jeanty is positioned for a feature-back role right out of the gate in Las Vegas. An elite playmaker with a three-down skill set, Jeanty has the upside to be an elite fantasy football running back. — Clay
Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: Maye produced relevant fantasy numbers as a rookie, despite not starting a game until October, burdened by the lack of any semblance of game-breakers surrounding him and dealing with an incompetent coaching staff. That changes this season, with proven WR Stefon Diggs and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels among the noteworthy additions. Maye adds value with his legs and, with a little help, could easily perform at a QB1 level. — Karabell
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: The Bears upgraded Williams’ head coach/playcaller, offensive line and pass-catchers in the draft and free agency. With Ben Johnson expected to bring a QB-friendly system that revived Jared Goff’s career in Detroit, Williams is poised to become the first QB in Bears franchise history to exceed 4,000 passing yards and/or 30 TDs in a season. Don’t forget about his untapped rushing upside, as well (400-plus rushing yards in each of his past two college seasons). — Fulghum
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs: Rice has already “broken out,” but he hasn’t shown the consistency we need to see in fantasy. There was concern about a suspension to start this season, but it appears any potential penalty will be pushed back another year, which means Rice should be right back to being a top-15 WR. When healthy, he appeared to take over the role of security blanket that Travis Kelce has dominated for years in this Chiefs offense, and that role should only grow stronger with another year under his belt. Rice is a top-15 WR who has WR1 upside with a WR2 ADP. — Dopp
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears: A top-15 wide receiver in end zone targets and average depth of target as a rookie, Odunze should emerge as a more consistent member of an improving Bears offense in 2025. The arrival of Ben Johnson, as well as the continued growth of quarterback Caleb Williams, should only help Odunze’s breakout prospects. He is a sizable target with explosive ability and among the highest statistical ceilings at the position. — Cockcroft
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers: McConkey finished top 20 in receptions and receiving yards as a rookie, so it can reasonably be argued that he broke out in 2024. But it’s his final seven games last season that have me most enthused. After posting just one game over 80 receiving yards in his first nine outings, McConkey reached at least 80 in six of his final seven games, catching at least five passes in all of them and hauling in three 40-plus-yard grabs (compared to just one in his first nine games). He’s the clear top receiving option with an excellent quarterback, and his role and usage should soar even further this season, giving him top-10 receiver upside. — Yates
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions: Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, and he averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game, buoyed by four games of 22-plus points. Despite a lack of consistent end zone targets (only four last season), Williams’ electric play speed and route deployment can produce breakout weeks in one of the league’s top scoring offenses. And with a bump in volume, Williams could jump into the WR2 mix. — Bowen
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills: Coleman has a clear path to a starting role in a high-powered Josh Allen offense and last season flashed serious big-play ability as a rookie. Despite missing four games, Coleman hauled in 12 passes of 20-plus yards and averaged 19.2 yards per reception, the third-highest mark in the league among players with at least 40 targets. With improved health and no true backup at X receiver, Coleman is positioned to make a second-year leap. — Moody
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: Many expected Harrison to emerge on the pro scene with a bang, but his underwhelming rookie season landed more like a thud. After scoring four touchdowns in his first four games, Harrison scored only four more the rest of the season, and his catch percentage (53.4%) was lowest among all rookie wide receivers. But his talent and pedigree are unchanged and lessons learned from Year 1 could go a long way toward making 2025 his breakout season. Plus, outside of Trey McBride, he faces little competition for targets. — Bell
