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NFL

NFL Week 10 betting nuggets

Miami, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Green Bay have been the best teams against the spread so far this season, all 6-2 ATS. Dallas has been the worst at 1-8 ATS.

Here are the top things to know for each game in Week 10.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.


Sunday’s games

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3), 1 p.m. ET

• Houston is 0-5 ATS as an underdog, and 0-4 ATS on the road.

• Houston is 1-7 ATS and 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records.

• Since the start of the 2008 season, these teams have faced off five times, with Houston covering in all five games.

• Cleveland is 15-31-1 ATS coming off a loss since the start of the 2016 season.

• All four of Cleveland’s games against teams with losing records have gone over the total.

Washington at Detroit Lions (NL), 1 p.m. ET

• Washington is 4-12-1 ATS in games that follow a loss since the start of last season.

• Detroit is 2-9 ATS since the start of last season in November or later.

• Detroit has failed to cover at home this season (0-3 ATS).

NFL:

A daily sports betting news and information show (6-7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) that aims to better serve the millions of sports fans who participate in sports wagering and help educate general sports fans with in-depth analysis. Watch »

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5), 4:05 p.m. ET

• Miami has covered in four consecutive games. Miami is also 4-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season. Miami is 15-5 ATS since its Week 5 bye last season, the best mark in the league.

• Miami is covering by an average of 11.2 points per game this season, on pace to be the best mark in the Super Bowl era (current high: 1967 Oakland,11.1).

• In the 12 games between these two franchises since the start of the 2002 season, the total has gone under 11 times.

• Los Angeles (A) is 10-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under Anthony Lynn.

• Los Angeles (A) is 2-8 ATS in November or later since the start of last season.

• Five straight Los Angeles (A) games have gone over the total. The over is 5-2 in Justin Herbert starts.

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5), 4:05 p.m. ET

• In games against teams with winning records, Buffalo games have gone over the total five of six times this season.

• Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its past five games overall, and in its past five road games.

• Unders are 6-2 in Arizona games this season.

• Arizona is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5), 4:25 p.m. ET

• Since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best mark in the NFL during that span.

• Los Angeles (N) is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games following a loss, and 5-1 ATS in its past six games as a home favorite.

• Los Angeles (N) is 12-7 ATS against NFC West opponents under Sean McVay (12-5 ATS in past 17 games).

• Los Angeles (N) is 9-2-2 ATS following a bye week since the start of the 2007 season (2-1 under McVay).

• The total has gone over in each of the past five Los Angeles (N) games.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5), 4:25 p.m. ET

• Since the start of last season, San Francisco is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog, the second-best mark in the NFL in that situation (Chiefs 2-0).

• The over is 7-1 in New Orleans games this season, and 4-0 when New Orleans is home.

• Since the start of last season, San Francisco is 9-3 ATS on the road, the third-best mark in the NFL during that span.

• Drew Brees is 10-16 ATS as the Saints’ starter when favored by nine or more points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5), 4:25 p.m. ET

• Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS in its past three road games, and its past three games as an underdog.

• In the past 10 seasons, Cincinnati is 31-16-2 ATS as a road underdog, the second-best cover percentage in the NFL in that situation during that span.

• Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• Pittsburgh has covered each of its past three home games.

• Underdogs are 15-6-2 ATS in AFC North games since 2018.

Co-hosted by Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum, Bet is available for live and on-demand viewing on the ESPN App and on ESPN’s social media feeds on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. Watch

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m. ET

• New England is 12-3 ATS and 10-5 SU as a home underdog under Bill Belichick. This is the first time New England has been a home underdog since Week 9 of 2014 (+3 vs. Denver, won outright). In the past 15 seasons, New England has won all three times it has been a home underdog. Overall, New England has won six of the past seven times it has been a home underdog, with all seven games going over the total.

• This is the most points New England has gotten as a home underdog since 2001.

• Since the start of the 2006 season, New England is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

• Lamar Jackson is 11-2-2 ATS on the road in his career.

• New England is 10-0 ATS in games that come off fewer than six days of rest since the start of the 2016 season.

• Baltimore is 9-2 ATS in November or later since the start of last season.

• In all four of the meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2013 season, the total went over.

Monday’s game

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Chicago Bears, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN

• Kirk Cousins is 0-9 ATS and SU in his career on Monday nights — the worst marks of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Seven of the nine losses are by two scores, and three of the losses came as a favorite.

• Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its past six games.

• Minnesota is 40-22-1 ATS as a favorite under Mike Zimmer.

• Since the start of the 2013 season, Minnesota is 40-20-2 ATS in November or later.

• Chicago is 10-4-1 ATS in its past 15 games as a home underdog (4-3 ATS under Matt Nagy).

• Cousins is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite since joining Minnesota in 2018.

• All five NFC North divisional games have gone over the total this season. Last year, NFC North games were 9-3 to the under.

• Home underdogs in divisional games are 11-2 ATS this season.

NFL

Midseason betting report: Prime time 'dogs and overs shining

Bookmakers and bettors have battled back and forth, while underdogs, especially in prime time and on the road, and overs have been money-makers through nine weeks of an NFL season like no other.

At the midway point, underdogs are 75-56-1 (57.2%) against the spread overall. Road ‘dogs are covering at a 59% clip, and in prime time games the underdog is 19-6 ATS. Games are averaging 50.7 points, which, according to ESPN Stats and Information, is the highest through the first nine weeks since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. Oddsmakers have struggled to keep up with the increased scoring –the over is 72-58-3 (55.4%) so far this season.

With the coronavirus pandemic posing unprecedented challenges for bookmakers and bettors, the betting market has adjusted on the fly. Teams are covering the spread by 9.52 points per game, the smallest spread margin — the difference between the closing line and final margin of victory — -through the first nine weeks in any season since the 1970 merger.

Here’s a look at the NFL betting market at the midway point:

1 Related

• Super Bowl odds: The Chiefs remain the consensus favorites to win the Super Bowl and are listed at 7-2 at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. The Steelers (11-2) are next, followed by the Saints (7-1). The Buccaneers and Ravens are the only other teams with single-digit Super Bowl odds, each at 9-1.

• Biggest mover: The Steelers began the season as 22-1 to win the Super Bowl. They’re now the second-favorite, behind only the defending-champion Chiefs.

• Biggest faller: The Cowboys have seen their Super Bowl odds fall from 12-1 at the start of the season to 200-1.

• Best teams to bet: The Steelers, Dolphins, Packers and Bengals are each 6-2 ATS.

• Worst teams to bet: The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS. They covered the spread for the first time this season on Sunday against the Steelers. The Jets are 2-7 ATS.

• Best over teams: The Raiders, Seahawks and Saints are each 7-1 to the over.

• Best under teams: The Cardinals and Rams are each 2-6 to the under.

• Biggest lock: The Saints (+3.5) covered the spread by 38.5 points in a 38-3 thrashing of the Buccaneers in Week 9.

• Season-win total lock: The Cowboys’ season-win total was set at 10. At 2-7, the under has already been clinched (as long as Dallas plays its full 16-game regular season).

• MVP odds: Russell Wilson +130, Patrick Mahomes +200, Aaron Rodgers +300, Josh Allen +1800, Ben Roethlisberger +2500.

• Offensive rookie of the year odds: Joe Burrow +100, Justin Herbert +100, Tua Tagoviloa +1,000 (via DraftKings).

• AP comeback player of the year odds: Alex Smith -250, Roethlisberger +270, Cam Newton +1,000.

Mid-season book report

A daily sports betting news and information show (6-7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) that aims to better serve the millions of sports fans who participate in sports wagering and help educate general sports fans with in-depth analysis. Watch »

• After holding its own early in the season, the tide has turned against the betting public. Several bookmakers said Weeks 8 and 9 were among their most lucrative of the season so far.

“Overall, it’s been kind of a choppy season,” Jeff Stoneback, director of race and sports for BetMGM sportsbooks in Nevada, said. “We’d have good days, give it away on a Monday night. It was kind of back-and-forth all season, until these last couple of weeks.”

• Sportsbook operator PointsBet said its hold percentage (the amount the book keeps from the amount wagered) has exceeded expectations through nine weeks.

“A big factor there has been the consistent run of bad performances from the favorites in prime time matchups,” PointsBet communications director Patrick Eichner told ESPN. “Our biggest handle events are always going to be the marquee, standalone night games, and favorites have been crushed against the spread there thus far. It’s also worth noting that those games are often the final leg of a parlay, with bettors usually needing the favorite to cover.”

• Las Vegas casinos have been operating at limited capacity due to the coronavirus pandemic, but it has not significantly hurt betting handle on the NFL.

“Year over year, our NFL handle is actually up from 2019,” John Murray, executive director for the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, said. “I was surprised when I saw that because I know we have a lot less tourism in previous years.”

“The betting handle has been great,” added Stoneback. “I would’ve expected it to be quite a bit down from previous years, but it’s been holding its own. We’ve been writing actually more tickets than we have in the last years.”

• Station Casino sportsbook has seen strong handle on the NFL and an uptick in mobile wagers.

“The season started slow in regards to win and hold percentage. Bettors did well in September,” Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director for Station Casinos, said. “However, over the last month, it has started to turn a bit in favor of the books.”

• With players going on and off of COVID-19 lists, bettors and bookmakers have had to pay close attention to the news.

“We’ve definitely noticed our sharper college players being a lot more tentative this year, especially early in the week. It’s hard to fall in love with a side on Monday when you know there’s a good chance 10 of the guys on your team will be in quarantine by Wednesday,” Murray of the SuperBook said. “You have to be a little more cautious than ever before, and we are seeing a lot more sharp players take that approach than in previous seasons. As for the NFL, I’d call it similar. But it does seem like the NFL is not being impacted quite as much. There’s a little more clarity there. In both pro and college football and all sports, really, information is more valuable than ever before. Knowing a QB is about to be ruled out for COVID before anyone else can be worth a lot, and it’s always a race to have that information first.”

Midseason by the numbers

• 48.02: The average closing over/under total in games this season, the highest such mark through nine weeks in the last 20 seasons.

• 18: The number of games that have ended with a margin of victory of three. That’s eight more games than any other margin of victory.

• $132.1 million: The amount wagered on football in September and October with Indiana sportsbooks.

ESPN Stats and Information researcher Bryan Beasley contributed to this article.

NFL

Source: Chiefs seek NFL inquiry on unmasked rep

The Chiefs have asked the NFL to launch an inquiry with the NFL Players Association after a union rep conducted an in-person meeting with all Kansas City players late last month, a source told ESPN.

The rep allegedly was unmasked while meeting and mingling with the players in close proximity, the source said.

NFL

Every NFL team's record against the spread and more

The Cowboys finally covered the spread for the first time this season in Week 9, but they still lost to the Steelers. The Texans are the only other team that has covered just once this season. Even the 0-9 Jets have covered twice.

Here are the ATS records for all 32 teams, league and team trends, and over/under records for the 2020 season.


AFC East

ATS: 4-5
O/U: 7-2

What we know: The Bills’ offense put up another dominating performance, this time vs. the Seahawks. Seven of nine games over the total this season for Buffalo.

ATS: 3-5
O/U: 4-4

ATS: 6-2
O/U: 3-5

What we know: Tua Tagovailoa outduels Kyler Murray as the Dolphins move to 6-2 ATS with a cover margin of 11.1, tops in the NFL.

ATS: 2-7
O/U: 4-5


AFC North

ATS: 4-3-1
O/U: 3-5

What we know: The Ravens closed as a rare underdog but rallied to knock off the Colts, improving to 12-5-1 ATS over past 18 regular-season games.

ATS: 6-2
O/U: 4-3-1

What we know: It wasn’t pretty, but Steelers stay perfect on the season. They drop only their second game vs the spread, now 6-2.

2 Related

ATS: 6-2
O/U: 5-3

ATS: 3-5
O/U: 5-3


AFC South

ATS: 3-5
O/U: 4-3

ATS: 4-4
O/U: 4-4

What we know: The Colts dominated the first half but failed to win or cover vs. the Ravens on Sunday, dropping to 4-4 ATS.

ATS: 3-5
O/U: 5-2-1

What we know: Tennessee displays some defense in dominating the Bears for the first three quarters. It was enough to earn the third cover of the season.

ATS: 1-7
O/U: 6-1-1

What we know: Very similar pattern to Texans games this year … do not cover and go over.


AFC West

ATS: 5-3
O/U: 5-3

What we know: Another heartbreaking loss for the Chargers. This time it also affected the cover, as they would have won and covered if the late touchdown was not overturned.

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ATS: 5-3
O/U: 5-3

What we know: The Broncos could not rally in this one, falling to cover for only the third time this season.

ATS: 5-3
O/U: 7-1

What we know: Back to overs for the Raiders, who have seen seven of eight games go over and had bad weather in the one under.

ATS: 6-3
O/U: 4-5


NFC East

ATS: 3-4-1
O/U: 3-4-1

ATS: 6-3
O/U: 3-5-1

What we know: The Giants continue their recent trend of covering with their third straight, and their fifth cover in past six games.

ATS: 1-8
O/U: 4-5

What we know: A cover! Cowboys become the last NFL team to cover the spread this season, although it was not enough to win the game.

ATS: 3-5
O/U: 3-5


NFC North

NFL ATS trends

ATS TRENDS W-L-T PCT
Away Teams 71-61-1 53.8%
Home Teams 61-71-1 46.2%
Favorites 56-75-1 42.8%
Underdogs 75-56-1 57.2%
Away Favorites 22-26-1 45.8%
Away Underdogs 49-34 59.0%
Home Favorites 34-49 41.0%
Home Underdogs 26-22-1 54.2%
TOTAL TRENDS COUNT PCT
Over 72 55.4%
Under 58 44.6%
Push 3

ATS: 6-2
O/U: 6-2

What we know: 6-2 to the number, 6-2 to the over. Seems like we should know how to bet Packers games by now.

ATS: 5-4
O/U: 3-6

What we know: The Bears’ offense was a no-show, leading to their third straight loss and sixth under in nine games.

ATS: 3-5
O/U: 5-3

ATS: 5-3
O/U: 6-2

What we know: More important to the Vikings was an outright win over the Lions, but they also covered and hit the over for a sixth time in eight games.


NFC South

ATS: 3-5
O/U: 7-1

What we know: The Saints say “Any questions?” after blowing out the Bucs as underdogs in Tampa Bay on Sunday night. After a 31-0 halftime lead, it looked like their eighth over in eight games, but taking their foot off the gas in second half led to the under.

ATS: 4-5
O/U: 5-4

What we know: Two straight bad showings for the Buccaneers, who followed their close win over the Giants with a dud vs. the Saints.

ATS: 4-5
O/U: 5-4

What we know: Don’t look now, but the Falcons are one Lions last-second TD from winning four straight.

ATS: 5-4
O/U: 4-5

What we know: The Panthers kept it close vs. the Chiefs to cover, but could not pull off the outright win.


NFC West

ATS: 5-3
O/U: 2-6

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ATS: 4-4
O/U: 2-6

ATS: 5-3
O/U: 7-1

What we know: Hard to cover when your defense allows 44 points. Another over for Seattle, as that’s seven of eight games.

ATS: 4-4
O/U: 4-4

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