COSTA MESA, Calif. — A prescient Nick Saban predicted Antonio Gates’ career path when he was just a freshman at Michigan State.
Saban, then the head coach for the Spartans, recruited Gates to play football. However, he viewed Gates as a twitchy, pass-rushing defensive end. Gates, who had focused on basketball all his life, had other plans.
He wanted to play both sports at Michigan State. So he moved on to Eastern Michigan and then Kent State, where he led the Golden Flashes to the 2002 Elite Eight as a junior.
However, Saban offered Gates a few words of wisdom before they parted ways.
“In hindsight looking at it, he was a genius,” Gates said. “I was 17 years old, wanting to play the game of basketball. I hadn’t even turned 18 yet when I had this conversation with Nick Saban. He just always felt like my God-given abilities and the attributes that I was blessed with were very suited for what they were looking for on the next level [of football] — the professional level.”
Gates later faced Saban’s Miami Dolphins in the NFL. He finished with 13 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in a 23-21 loss during the 2005 season. The two met in the middle of the field afterward.
“He asked me after the game, ‘What did you think about that choice for football?'” Gates said. “The guy was a genius. He told me I was a first-round pick. I didn’t believe it in a sense. I just wanted to play the game of basketball.”
Gates’ choice proved Hall of Fame worthy. After 16 seasons, all with the Chargers, Gates retired this week.
Considering his numbers, he was among the best to play the position. He’s No. 3 among tight ends for total receptions (955) and receiving yards (11,841), behind Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten.
Gates ranks first in league history among tight ends with 21 career multi-touchdown games and fourth in the NFL with 21 100-yard receiving efforts. His 39 touchdown receptions on third down are the most in league history for a tight end and tied with Hall of Fame wide receiver Cris Carter for No. 3 overall.
According to Gates, what set him apart was his ability to get in the end zone. He ended up with 116 career touchdowns, tops for a tight end in NFL history.
every. single. td. pic.twitter.com/OP28zWTJBV
— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) January 17, 2020
Throughout his career, Gates was nearly impossible to guard in the red zone. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, 92 of Gates’ touchdowns came in the red zone — second all time and most of any player since he entered the league in 2003.
To hear him tell it, what made Gates unique was his ability to create separation with the precise body control developed on the hardwood floor as a smallish, wide-bodied, low-post player at Kent State.
Gates points to his basketball acumen for his unique ability to get open in the red zone, using soft hands and leverage to create separation against linebackers or safeties, or sometimes both.
“As I evolved to become the red zone threat, I noticed that every other team had started looking for red zone threats at that position,” Gates said when asked to make his case for the Hall of Fame. “That would be the majority of my case. The thing that I’ve always had in terms of respect is more respect from defensive coordinators than any other tight end in the history of the game.
“I’ve watched film on tight ends. I’ve watched film on all of them. I can recall playing a team and they did something, then when they played the Chargers, they didn’t quite do it the same. I feel like there was a ton of respect.
“For the most part, I was always faced with a defensive back. It was very rare that I got the opportunity to go up against a linebacker. Very rare. … Anytime I look at who’s the best or who is considered to be in the Hall of Fame, I consider the level of respect that coordinators or teams gave that particular person. That’s how I would like to be judged. That’s how I would explain it to [selectors] in Canton.”
Gates wanted to play one more season, but he could not find the right opportunity in free agency last year. The 39-year-old said the
The conference championships of the NFL playoffs have arrived, and we’re previewing Sunday’s pair of games: Titans-Chiefs in the AFC, and Packers-49ers in the NFC. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup to watch, ESPN Chalk’s Mackenzie Kraemer hands out helpful nuggets, and national NFL writer Kevin Seifert focuses in on each game’s officiating crew. It’s all here to help get you ready for an exciting weekend of NFL football.
Jump to: TEN-KC | GB-SF
AFC
3:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 84.9 | Spread: KC -7.5 (53)
What to watch for: Titans running back Derrick Henry isn’t the only storyline in this game, but it sure seems like it after he ran for 188 yards against the Chiefs in Week 10. Doing much better this time is a big thing for the Chiefs, who are 9-0 when allowing the opponent to rush for 110 yards or fewer — but 4-4 when allowing more. — Adam Teicher
NFL PrimeTime continues this postseason with extended highlights and analysis following the conclusion of each day’s playoff games. Watch on ESPN+
Bold prediction: All of the focus on stopping Henry will make the Chiefs’ defense more vulnerable to the passing game. After totaling 160 yards in the previous two games, Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill will capitalize on one-on-one coverage, throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Chiefs wide receivers had 13 plays with the ball carrier reaching 20-plus mph this season, the most in the NFL. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman both have six such plays, tied for the most among receivers in 2019. In addition, the Chiefs’ wideouts have been open (3-plus yards of separation, per NFL Next Gen Stats) on 45.6% of their targets, the highest rate in the NFL.
Key matchup: Titans’ deep-ball play-action vs. the Chiefs’ secondary. Even if the Titans do control tempo with Henry, the Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes will still get eight or nine possessions. So the Titans need points in this one, and explosive-play opportunities off play-action offer an opportunity. Look for Tennessee to dial up some shot play throws for Tannehill here. Bring in your big-boy personnel, sell the run and push the ball over the top to Kalif Raymond or A.J. Brown. Read more.
2 Related
Betting nugget: Sunday will be the fifth time this season that Tennessee has been an underdog of at least four points. It won each of the first four outright, including beating Kansas City in Week 10. Tennessee is also the fifth team to win its wild-card and divisional-round games as underdogs of at least four points. But the previous four teams were 0-4 outright and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in the conference title games. Read more.
Officiating nugget: Referee Tony Corrente will get another shot after an eventful wild-card game in Houston, where he had to be talked out of awarding a fraudulent touchdown to the Bills. Corrente’s regular-season crew threw an average of 17.1 flags per game, the fifth most in the NFL.
Davenport’s pick: Titans 28, Chiefs 24
Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 28, Titans 17
FPI prediction: KC, 75.1% (by an average of 8.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: The first $40 million-a-year QB? NFL execs predict Mahomes’ potential payday … One of Andy Reid’s biggest wins — but is the best still yet to come? … Fortune favors the bold: QB wasn’t a need when Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes … Chiefs sound drained at mere prospect of facing Derrick Henry again … Damien Williams at long last establishes himself in Chiefs backfield … From Dolphins discard to Titans treasure, Ryan Tannehill had ‘to move on’ … How two trades helped catapult the Titans to the AFC title game … How the Titans pulled the stunner to beat Lamar Jackson, and what’s next … Lessons from baseball helped Titans’ A.J. Brown blossom at football
NFC
6:40 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 74.4 | Spread: SF -7.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: While Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has expressed his team’s need to forget the 49ers’ 37-8 drubbing of the Packers in November, Packers coach Matt LaFleur has talked about needing to revisit and learn from it. The Niners are healthier than they were in that first meeting, but a regular-season drubbing guarantees nothing in the playoffs. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this marks the 37th time in the Super Bowl era that two teams will meet in the playoffs after one beat the other by at least 25 points during the regular season. The team that won the first meeting is 22-14 in the ensuing matchup, but the team that best maintains focus on the task at hand will move on to the Super Bowl. — Nick Wagoner
What you need to know:
• Full playoff schedule »
• First look at GB-SF, TEN-KC »
• Answering four big questions »
• Super Bowl LIV coverage »
More NFL coverage »
Bold prediction: Packers receiver Davante Adams will come close to the team playoff record of 160 yards receiving he set last week against the Seahawks. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was 0-of-8 on throws 10-plus yards downfield against the San Francisco defense in the Week 12 loss — his most such passes in a game without a single completion, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Look for that to change Sunday as he and LaFleur devise different ways to attack the 49ers. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Both teams added a pair of pass-rushers this offseason. The Packers’ Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith were the only pair of teammates with 12.0 sacks each in the regular season, and they each had 2.0 in the divisional-round game. The 49ers, meanwhile, have recorded a sack on 17.3% of dropbacks with both Nick Bosa and Dee Ford on the field and just 5.7% with either or both off. The NFL average sack rate is 6.5%.
Key matchup: 49ers’ pass rush vs. the Packers’ offensive line. The 49ers are loaded on the defensive line with Bosa, Ford, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. That’s the best nickel front in the NFL. Look for San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to scheme pass-rush matchups with his personnel out of multiple fronts and alignments. That allows the 49ers to bump Bosa and Ford inside, or use twist stunts to open up rush lanes. The pressure here is on the Packers’ offensive line to protect Rodgers. Read more.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is the fourth team to win at least 13 games during the regular season and then be an underdog of at least seven points in its conference title game. Each of the previous three won the game outright. This is the fourth time Rodgers has been an underdog of at least seven points, and he is 0-3 outright — but 3-0 ATS — in the previous three games. Read more.
Officiating nugget: Referee John Hussey’s regular-season crew threw an average of 14.9 flags per game, fourth fewest in the NFL. His crew called the second-fewest penalties for offensive holding (38), one of the handful of fouls for which referees are responsible.
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 28, 49ers 27
Wagoner’s pick: 49ers 30, Packers 20
FPI prediction: SF, 71.9% (by an average of 7.6 points)
-
It wasn’t solely because of their pass-rush that the Seahawks were a bottom-third defense by most measures. They missed too many tackles, struggled against the run and got suspect play out of some of their defensive backs.
Then again, more heat on the opposing quarterback would have made life a lot easier for that group. The Seahawks had the third-lowest rate of pressure on opponents’ dropbacks, at 22.9%, per ESPN charting. They were 16th, at 42.8%, in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate. That was with Clowney finishing fifth in individual PRWR, at 24.8%.
Clowney was the only part of the Seahawks’ plan to replace Frank Clark that worked. They hardly got anything from Ezekiel Ansah (another pending free agent) and even less from L.J. Collier, whom they drafted with the extra first-round pick they acquired in the Clark trade.
The Seahawks can’t tag Clowney and thus can’t keep him from reaching the open market, where his price could skyrocket, as he is one of the best available players at one of the most sought-after positions. It won’t be impossible to re-sign him, but it’ll be difficult.
After pulling off a blockbuster trade to acquire Clowney last summer, Schneider might have to do something equally creative and drastic to replace him. Even if the Seahawks are able to keep Clowney, 2019 made it all too clear that they’ll need more around him.
Here’s what else you need to know about Seattle’s offseason:
The rest of the free agents
Former sixth-round pick Joey Hunt replaced an injured Jusitn Britt at center and is a restricted free agent. Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire
The order for the top 28 picks of the 2020 NFL draft is set, with the Cincinnati Bengals, who had the league’s worst record at 2-14, picking No. 1. Could they choose top quarterback prospect Joe Burrow?
The Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, each have multiple first-round picks.
The 2020 NFL draft begins with Round 1 on April 23 from Las Vegas and continues with Rounds 2 and 3 on April 24 and Rounds 4 to 7 on April 25. The draft will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, the ESPN app and NFL Network.
Check out the final 1-28 order below, with projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) for picks 29 to 32. Efficiency rankings for each team are updated through the end of the regular season.
Draft rankings: McShay | Kiper
McShay Mock 1.0 | 30 questions
Needs for every team in top 10
The last time the Bengals picked first overall was in 2003, when they took Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Carson Palmer. He spent seven seasons in Cincinnati and made the Pro Bowl twice.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 30th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 25th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 16th
Overall ranking: 31st
Washington locked up the No. 2 pick with a loss at Dallas on Sunday. The last time the Redskins picked second overall? It was in 2012, when they also took a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback — Robert Griffin III. This will be the fourth time Washington has had the second pick.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 32nd
Defensive efficiency ranking: 27th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 4th
Overall ranking: 32nd
1 Related
The last time the Lions picked third overall was in 2002, when they took quarterback Joey Harrington. He went 18-37 as a starter in his four seasons with Detroit.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 19th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 29th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 1st
Overall ranking: 25th
The last time the Giants picked fourth overall was in 2004, when they took quarterback Philip Rivers. They then traded him and their 2005 first-round pick to the Chargers for first overall pick Eli Manning.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 25th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 28th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 17th
Overall ranking: 29th
Of the Dolphins’ past eight first-round picks, only three are still on the roster. Two others, offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, were traded away and made the Pro Bowl this season for their new teams. Ryan Tannehill, a 2012 first-round pick who was traded to Tennessee last offseason, could make it three former Dolphins on the AFC roster, should he be added.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 24th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 30th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 22nd
Overall ranking: 30th
This marks only the third time since 2004 that the Chargers have picked in the top 10. The other two picks netted defensive end Joey Bosa (No. 3 overall) and wide receiver Mike Williams (No. 7).
Offensive efficiency ranking: 16th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 23rd
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 21st
Overall ranking: 20th
With the Panthers past three top-10 picks, they selected running back Christian McCaffrey (No. 8), linebacker Luke Kuechly (No. 9) and quarterback Cam Newton (No. 1). Carolina lost eight straight games to end the season.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 28th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 20th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 23rd
Overall ranking: 27th
What you need to know:
• Full playoff schedule »
• First look at GB-SF, TEN-KC »
• Answering four big questions »
• Super Bowl LIV coverage »
More NFL coverage »
Help for 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray probably will be the order of the day for the Cardinals. Eight wide receivers rank among ESPN NFL draft expert Todd McShay’s top 32 prospects.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 13th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 31st
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 14th
Overall ranking: 26th
The Jaguars’ pick will be their 18th in the top 10 since the franchise came into existence in 1995, the most of any team. The Cardinals, who will be making their 15th top-10 pick since 1995, are second.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 26th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 26th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 6th
Overall ranking: 28th
The Browns must protect quarterback Baker Mayfield better than they did in 2019. They haven’t taken an offensive tackle in the first round since selecting Joe Thomas third overall in 2007.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 22nd
Defensive efficiency ranking: 22nd
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 9th
Overall ranking: 23rd
The Jets haven’t spent a first-round pick on an offensive player who wasn’t a quarterback since selecting tight end Dustin Keller (No. 30) in 2008. This would be a good spot to grab their first first-round offensive tackle since three-time Pro Bowler D’Brickashaw Ferguson in 2006.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 29th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 15th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 15th
Overall ranking: 24th
The Raiders don’t have a second-round pick, but they have two first-rounders and three third-rounders. They’ll look to improve the league’s worst defense, by FPI’s efficiency metric.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 6th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 32nd
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 28th
Overall ranking: 22nd
Another prime spot for one of the talented members of the wide receiver class? Colts wideouts struggled mightily to stay healthy in 2019.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 18th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 12th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 32nd
Overall ranking: 19th
It isn’t considered a deep draft for offensive linemen, which is the Bucs’ primary need. This pick could instead provide help for one of the NFL’s most improved defenses.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 20th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 8th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 31st
Overall ranking: 15th
The Broncos have unearthed some solid offensive prospects in the past two drafts in wide receiver Courtland Sutton, running back Royce Freeman, tight end Noah Fant and offensive tackle Dalton Risner. They could opt for another playmaker or look for a replacement at cornerback for Chris Harris Jr., who is a free agent in 2020.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 23rd
Defensive efficiency ranking: 16th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 5th
Overall ranking: 18th
The Falcons have used their past three first-round picks, including two in last April’s draft, on offense. They had one of the NFL’s worst defenses in 2019, so they could address cornerback or the defensive line here.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 12th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 24th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 29th
Overall ranking: 21st
The Cowboys might need to address wide receiver, with no contract yet for Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb also slated for free agency. The secondary also is an area that could be hit hard by free-agent departures.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 3rd
Defensive efficiency ranking: 18th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 30th
Overall ranking: 8th
The second of Miami’s three first-round picks — acquired in the trade with the Steelers for Minkah Fitzpatrick — could address the team’s many needs. The Dolphins haven’t had multiple first-round picks since the 1992 draft.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 24th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 30th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 22nd
Overall ranking: 30th
General manager Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden have several options with their capital on days 1 and 2 of the draft, which include trading up to pick a player they like.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 6th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 32nd
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 28th
Overall ranking: 22nd
The Jaguars acquired this pick in the Jalen Ramsey trade. It is possible they could turn it around and use it on a cornerback. Wide receiver and linebacker also seem like strong possibilities.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 26th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 26th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 6th
Overall ranking: 28th
It is a good thing for the Eagles that there is a deep and talented receiver class. They’re definitely in the market given their lack of production at the position in 2019: They didn’t have a wideout reach 500 receiving yards for the first time since 1966.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 11th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 19th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 26th
Overall ranking: 14th
The Bills fit the bill of yet another team looking to put playmakers around a young quarterback. Yes, the wide receiver class is that deep. And the past three times that the Bills took one in the first round, he delivered at least one 1,000-yard season.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 21st
Defensive efficiency ranking: 5th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 3rd
Overall ranking: 10th
The Patriots’ offensive line has struggled this season. Could they take another lineman here? They don’t have a second-round pick but could have as many as three third-rounders with compensatory selections.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 17th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 1st
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 9th
Overall ranking: 4th
The Saints don’t have a second-round pick, so this one will be of the utmost importance. After Michael Thomas, their receiving depth chart is barren.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 4th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 11th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 2nd
Overall ranking: 5th
The Vikings figure to need a cornerback, with free agency looming for Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander. And they like drafting CBs: They’ve taken four in the first or second round since 2013.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 5th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 10th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 25th
Overall ranking: 7th
If the Dolphins use all three of their first-round picks, it would be just the 13th time in league history that a team has taken at least three players in the first round (the Jets took four in 2000). This pick comes from the Texans dealing for Laremy Tunsil.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 24th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 30th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 22nd
Overall ranking: 30th
Free agency is expected to hit hard in the trenches in Seattle. The Seahawks could look for help along the D-line, where multiple starters could depart. They used the No. 29 pick on pass-rusher L.J. Collier in 2019, but he did not have a sack as a rookie.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 14th
Defensive efficiency ranking: 17th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 11th
Overall ranking: 13th
The Ravens haven’t generated much of a pass rush in 2019, ranking in the bottom half of the league. They haven’t drafted an edge rusher in Round 1 since Terrell Suggs in 2003.
Offensive efficiency ranking: 2nd
Defensive efficiency ranking: 4th
Special-teams efficiency ranking: 12th
Overall ranking: 1st
Projections for picks 29-32, from ESPN’s Football Power Index
29. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
30. Tennessee Titans (9-7)
31. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
32. San Francisco 49ers (13-3)