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NFL

'A trade that shook the NFL': How Bucs' Jon Gruden gamble paid off with a Super Bowl

In the early-morning hours of Feb. 18, 2002, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sent two first-round draft picks, two second-round picks and $8 million to the Oakland Raiders — for a head coach. Eleven months and eight days later, Jon Gruden led his Bucs team against those same Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII, and he delivered Tampa’s first and only Vince Lombardi Trophy with a 48-21 victory.


Atlanta (8-5) is at Tampa Bay (4-9). (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN):

• Revisiting Bucs’ epic trade for Gruden
• Bucs LB honors Gruden with cleats
• Coach behind Falcons’ turnaround on D
• Falcons out to close with scoring frenzy
• OC: Winston-Koetter relationship OK
• Chalk: How to bet Atlanta-Tampa Bay
• MNF HQ: What you need to know

Bucs co-chairman Bryan Glazer called it “a trade that shook the NFL,” and it is still the biggest deal to acquire a coach in NFL history. It was a steep price to pay for Gruden, who will be inducted into the Buccaneers’ Ring of Honor during Monday night’s game, but as one of his former players said, “One Super Bowl is worth 20 years of mediocrity.”

Here’s a look back at how the trade that made Gruden feel pressure went down, the historic “Chucky Bowl” and the aftermath for a franchise that hasn’t come close to the top of the NFL mountain since.


The Bucs went 9-7 in 2001 and reached the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons, but they couldn’t get to the Super Bowl. And that cost Tony Dungy his job as head coach. Coming off the field on Jan. 12, 2002, after a 31-9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, players sensed it would be Dungy’s last game as their coach.

Bucs linebacker Derrick Brooks: “Yes, I did [think something was going to happen]. It had been rumored for a while that if we didn’t get to certain stages that that was going to happen. But until it actually happened, we were business as usual.”

Bucs fullback Mike Alstott: “It was hard. It’s hard, still. The guy that brought us all in, the guy that [we] were winning with, the guy [we] had success with, went to the playoffs with [is gone]. The thing is, the NFL is ‘not for long.’ … There is nobody untouchable in the NFL. … Us players felt guilty. We felt really, really guilty about it, not getting it done for him.”

Gruden’s final game as Raiders head coach came during the infamous Tuck Rule Game loss to the Patriots in an AFC divisional playoff game on Jan. 19, 2002. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Five days after Dungy’s firing, the Raiders and Gruden suffered a crushing defeat of their own, a 16-13 loss to the New England Patriots in an AFC divisional playoff, otherwise known as the Tuck Rule Game.

Raiders wide receiver Tim Brown: “Right after the game in New England, he made a comment in the locker room that basically said … ‘You guys should have won.’ And I went up to him after he had finished, and I asked him what did ‘you guys’ mean? ‘Coach, you are a part of us.’ And he just sort of walked away from me.”

Raiders cornerback Charles Woodson: “I can’t say that I remember any rumblings about it. … Nobody thought he was going anywhere. He had come in and the mission was to get that franchise turned around and that had happened. … Nobody thought he was going anywhere. We just thought he was having issues with negotiations like everybody else does and they’d get it worked out and we’d have our coach.”

Meanwhile in Tampa, the Bucs were struggling to find a replacement for Dungy. Bill Parcells opted to stay retired. They interviewed Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis, LSU head coach Nick Saban, Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Tampa Bay general manager Rich McKay wanted Lewis, but the Glazers believed they had their defense set already with coordinator Monte Kiffin and they wanted an offense-minded head coach.

Brooks: “Up until that point, everybody was kind of scrambling, doing their own thing. But at the end of the day, we were not accomplishing anything because we didn’t have a head coach. So for a month, I worked out, I did this, I didn’t know if I was doing the right thing, wrong thing in terms of what the head coach wanted, because we didn’t have one.”

Alstott: “We were in limbo. We were really in limbo for a long time not knowing what to expect and hearing different names, and all of a sudden, here comes Jon Gruden out of nowhere, overnight.”

Raiders owner Al Davis initially demanded two first-round draft picks, two second-round picks and future Pro Football Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp, who had been NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 1999, in exchange for Gruden. The Bucs went looking elsewhere. After talks with San Francisco 49ers head coach Steve Mariucci went nowhere, the focus turned back to Gruden. Bucs vice president Joel Glazer called Davis at his home around 10 p.m. on Feb. 17, 2002. The two talked for about 30 minutes, and the Bucs reiterated their interest in Gruden.

Jon Gruden: “I had a phone in my house and when that phone rang, there was only one person — Al Davis. And he’d call at times when you’d expect Al Davis to call — usually when I was sleeping. So when the phone rang that night, I knew who it was. We had just lost to, I think the Patriots, in the playoffs. I was still bitter about the game. I know he was still upset about the game. I figured we were gonna talk about that.”

The Bucs signed the 38-year-old Gruden to a five-year deal and introduced him as head coach on Feb. 20, 2002. Peter Muhly/AFP/Getty Images

Brown: “I think [Gruden] knew something was coming. I think he had given the Raiders until Thanksgiving to get something done or he was going to leave, so I think everybody knew what was going to happen except the players. … The players weren’t aware of anything of that nature.”

Gruden: “There were trade rumors going on at that time. [Al] asked me if I’d wanted to talk to the Glazers. And my contract was coming up. To make a long story short, I said, ‘Yeah, I’d like to talk to the Glazers.’ That didn’t make him very happy.”

Bucs co-chairman Bryan Glazer: “Jon was a winner. Coming from Oakland, Jon had huge success on the offensive side of the ball. We had an unbelievable defense, and all we were missing was that side of the football. Getting a chance to get a young coach in his prime was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and so we did what we needed to do to make it happen.”

The deal was done by 3 a.m. on Feb. 18, 2002. The trade was for four draft picks — first- and second-round picks in 2002, a first-rounder in 2003 and a second-rounder in 2004 — and $8 million. Gruden would make almost $4 million per season for five years, more than tripling his salary. Trading for coaches wasn’t that uncommon at the time. Patriots owner Robert Kraft gave Leon Hess and the New York Jets a first-round draft pick in 2000 to land Bill Belichick. In 1997, Jets owner Hess gave a first-, second-, third- and fourth-round draft pick and a $300,000 charitable donation to the Patriots to land Parcells in a deal brokered by NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue.

Cindy Gruden, Jon’s wife: “We did get the call around 1 in the morning, and we were disoriented. So the news comes through, and we can’t get a hold of our agent, Bob [Lamonte], because it’s nighttime. Nobody does business — I don’t know — the Glazers do things sometimes in the middle of the night. So it came through, and we talked to Al Davis and the Glazers, and everybody was like, ‘Are we doing this?’ ‘Yes, we are. It’s done.'”

Gruden: “Shortly after that, we agreed on a contract. I guess the trade had already been agreed upon between the Raiders and the Bucs. It all happened fast. Needless to say, I didn’t sleep much that night.”

Cindy Gruden: “It was like, ‘What just happened?’ And then it’s all these emotions because California’s your home, the Raiders are your team and you love those people. You’d been through a lot with them football-wise, at least from a wife’s perspective. We live and die with our husbands as well. So you have all these emotions of leaving the place that you love, but going into a place that you also love. So it was an insane mix of emotions.”

Gruden’s family lived in the Tampa Bay area. His father, Jim, was the Bucs’ running backs coach from 1982-83 and was a regional scout and director of player personnel. His brother, Jay Gruden, went to Tampa’s Chamberlain High School and was the quarterback; he later became head coach of the Arena Football League’s Orlando Predators.

Gruden: “It was like a storybook opportunity for me to go home. … I grew up with [former Bucs tight end] Jimmie Giles. I was a ball boy for the Bucs. [Former Bucs quarterback] Doug Williams, I idolized Doug.”

Glazer: “It was euphoria. It was so exciting to know that Jon was coming to Tampa.”

Rich Gannon told Brad Johnson that Gruden would have him more prepared than any coach he played for, and the Bucs quarterback soon found that out for himself. Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Cindy Gruden: “Our youngest [son Jayson] was 2, and I had four days to find a house and schools out here and then I had to fly back, because I didn’t really have a sitter. It was hard to get my parents to do it. It was just insane. But we managed.”

Bucs quarterback Brad Johnson: “At the time, I just knew I was gonna have to learn a lot of football. That was my only thinking, and, ‘What were his facial expressions gonna be like?'”

When news of the trade hit, it sent shock waves through the Raiders, who had gone 22-10 over Gruden’s final two seasons in Oakland.

Raiders QBs coach/offensive coordinator Bill Callahan: “That was just a crazy time in all of our lives. That was just shocking. I was just totally just blown away that he was traded in the middle of the night. That was a first one for me [and] a first for a lot of people. I was happy for him. A special guy.”

Brown: “I tried to get ahold of him right away, and obviously I couldn’t, because he was already on his way to Tampa; and next time I saw him, he was on TV being introduced as the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”

As news of Gruden’s hiring spread through Tampa, Jeffrey Neil Fox, owner of the old Buccaneer Heaven, a memorabilia store just a few miles north of Raymond James Stadium, had to prepare for the Gruden frenzy, including the coach’s “alter ego.” Gruden’s facial expressions, combined with his blonde hair, freckles and boyish appearance earned him the nickname “Chucky” after a character in the 1998 horror flick “Child’s Play.”

Fox: “We got on the internet and bought up every single Chucky doll there was. Initially, I got 100, but I ended up ordering, I think, 2,000 of them. We made them go back to press. We made the toy manufacturer make them up again. We had a little bit of a monopoly on this. … My showroom looked like a murder scene [with so many people]. … That Chucky thing went crazy.”

Johnson: “I called [Raiders quarterback] Rich Gannon when that went down, and he said, ‘Brad, you’re gonna love playing for him. He’s gonna have you more prepared than anybody you’ve ever had before. He’s gonna teach you a lot of football. And he’s gonna give you a chance to win at a higher level.’ And Rich was right about everything.”

Gruden: “It didn’t put any pressure on me. Warren Sapp told me, ‘If you don’t deliver a Super Bowl, we will kill you.'”

Fox: “Remember the ‘Got Milk?’ ads? We ended up selling $100,000 worth of ‘Got Chucky?’ T-shirts. We got the Chucky bobbleheads, a 3-foot bobblehead of Gruden.”

Gruden’s energetic style made a quick impression on his new players, and he brought in a lot of new faces.

Brooks: “The way he came off, you felt this genuine energy. That was the first impression of mine, and, ‘This guy is energetic. We’re gonna have to match it.’ I think if I had to use one word, it’s the ‘energy’ that Coach Gruden brought into the building every single day. Especially those first couple of days, it was high-pace, high everything — doing everything with much greater speed. It was energy.”

Gruden cheers on Dwight Smith as the safety returns an interception for a score during Super Bowl XXXVII. Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Johnson: “Jon brought in a lot of free agents [25 total] and kind of raised the expectations of the defense and also gave us a better chance on offense to succeed.”

Bucs left tackle Roman Oben: “I got cut by the Browns before signing with the Bucs. He revamped the offense with guys who had chips on their shoulders and knew how to push our buttons to get the most out of us — [wide receiver] Joe Jurevicius, [running back] Michael Pittman, [wide receiver] Keenan McCardell, [offensive guard] Jerry Jenkins.”

Bucs wide receiver Keenan McCardell: “He recruited the mess out of me to come to Tampa. I felt like a college kid again in recruiting. … I was deciding to go between Tampa and Kansas City. And he said, ‘Your wife doesn’t want to go to cold-ass Kansas City. She wants to stay in nice, sunny Florida. So I want you to drive your butt right down I-75 and come on to Tampa and we’re gonna win a Super Bowl. … Just tell her I’ll buy her some diamonds after we win the Super Bowl.’ I mean, he was thinking about that then. And I was like, ‘I’m gonna hold you to that if I come to Tampa.'”

McCardell: “I went to Kansas City [on a free-agent visit] and came back. And [Gruden] said, ‘Well, I’m not gonna meet you at the airport. I got some people waiting for you.’ He had the whole defense and offense waiting on me at the restaurant. That was pretty cool by him. He put the big guns out there to recruit me to come there. That was a nice one for me.”

Gruden didn’t touch the defense that Dungy and Kiffin had installed, but he challenged that defense to take it to another level.

Brooks: “He challenged us [the defense] to score nine touchdowns, something we’ve never been challenged with before. I don’t know where he got that number from, but [safety] Dwight Smith’s [second pick-six] in the Super Bowl was our ninth touchdown. He said, ‘You guys are so great, so intimidating — everyone in the world is scared of you, so just score touchdowns.’ He said, ‘Be dominant, be global. Impress me.'”

Bucs safety Dwight Smith: “That was in practice, dominating and celebrating and all that. And he was like, ‘You think you’re all so tough? You think you’re all so tough? Score nine touchdowns then!’ I want to say that was in training camp. We were out there celebrating and having a ball and all this, and he gets up there and he’s so competitive, he goes, ‘You guys think you’re so tough? Then score nine touchdowns!'”

The Bucs improved from eighth in scoring defense in 2001 to first, allowing just 12.3 points per game. The defense led the Bucs to an NFC South title with a 12-4 record.

Bucs running back Michael Pittman: “No matter what, we’d leave the facility and his car was there. And at 5 o’clock in the morning, his car’s already there. It was like, we really didn’t know what time he left and what time he got in. Coach Gruden lived and breathed football — that’s all he did. … Everybody on the team respected him and the way he worked.”

Alstott: “Coach Gruden was an expert — he was a master of X’s and O’s. He really was — and breaking down defenses and being a great presenter. His presentation to the weekly game plans that he had each and every Wednesday was really magical. He could take video and put it in your playbook and show you what he wanted done between video and the different concepts that he wanted to teach us. That happened each and every week and every day. It was pretty impressive.”

Bucs owner Malcolm Glazer celebrates the Bucs’ 48-21 victory over the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. AP Photo/Dave Martin

The Bucs, who had lost to the Eagles in the playoffs two years in a row, won the 2002 NFC Championship Game with a 27-10 victory over Philadelphia. They were headed to the Super Bowl, and in a strange twist of fate, they would face the Raiders.

Gruden: “I kinda knew the Raiders were a heck of a team. I mean, we were pretty good. But I remember in the playoffs, we had made the playoffs, we had the bye week — I was really happy we beat the 49ers — and I see the Raiders advance. I’ll never forget when the Raiders beat the Titans [in the AFC Championship Game]. … It was chilling. That was a weird feeling. It was a strange day at the office, for sure.”

Raiders CEO Amy Trask: “My immediate, instantaneous thought was that this would be a problem, as Jon knew our personnel inside out. He knew strengths, weaknesses, propensities, etc. I knew it increased the challenges considerably.”

After Gruden played the role of Gannon in practice, the Bucs faced the real guy in San Diego on Jan. 26, 2003. The game brought a wide range of emotions for Gruden. It did for the Raiders as well, in what was dubbed the “Chucky Bowl.”

Gruden: “You don’t want to know [the feeling]. You don’t want to be there. It was my old team we were playing against.”

Cindy Gruden: “I have to tell ya — at the Super Bowl, the Buccaneer wives drove in on their buses and the Raiders wives drove in on their buses, and I just had to stop [myself] from tearing up, because it was all the people I loved on that side too. It was a very weird mix of emotions.”

Brown: “It was very hard seeing him across the field, no doubt about it. We had such an incredible relationship with him. He was the guy that I would just go talk to about stuff that didn’t have anything to do with football; so from that standpoint, it was tough to all of a sudden be in a situation where you didn’t have that in your head coach anymore. You didn’t have that guy that you could talk to, and he’s down there with another team having tons of success. It was tough, no doubt about it, to see him on the other side.”

Gruden: “Eh, bring it on. If we’re gonna put all the chips on the table, let’s put every chip we got. Let’s not screw around here. If we’re gonna beat somebody, we might as well beat the old team.”

Johnson threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns, both to McCardell. Simeon Rice had two of the Bucs’ five sacks. Brooks returned an interception for a touchdown and Smith had two pick-sixes. Safety Dexter Jackson also had two interceptions and won Super Bowl MVP in the Bucs’ 48-21 victory. At 39, Gruden became the youngest coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl.

Callahan: “It was just kind of weird that the whole thing occurred in terms of him being with the Bucs, me with the Raiders and we met in the Super Bowl. It wasn’t unlikely, though. They had all the things in place and Jon just put it all together and brought that team together and created a championship. Unfortunately, we were on the other side of it. But to his credit, they were the better team that day.”

Brown: ”After the game was over with, you couldn’t help but be happy for him, because when you worked as hard as he’d worked in his career, you deserve to win a championship. We wanted to win it, but we didn’t. I’m not going to sit around and pooh-pooh on his victory. I made sure right after the game that I got right over to him and congratulated him before they kicked us off the field.”

Gruden and Glazer show off the Vince Lombardi Trophy during the Bucs’ championship parade in 2003. Getty Images

Glazer: “Every team has only one goal each year and that’s to win the Super Bowl. Jon Gruden is the reason I am wearing this [Super Bowl] ring. It’s also the reason that my father could stand alongside him holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy, delivering on his promise to make the Buccaneers winners on and off the field.”

The Bucs struggled over the following two seasons. They missed out on the draft picks that they had traded to Oakland. Players in their core group aged. The Bucs were one of seven teams in NFL history to miss out on the playoffs two years in a row after winning the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. They did make it back to the playoffs in 2005 and in 2007, but lost in the first round both times. After the Super Bowl, the Raiders did not reach the playoffs again until 2016.

Gruden: “You don’t realize the compensation until the draft comes around. You miss the first- and second-round draft choices and you really wish in hindsight that we didn’t have to give up anything.”

Alstott: “Every year’s a different story in the coaching world. You don’t know what you’re gonna get. You don’t know what you’re gonna have, unfortunately, with injuries. … Every team is different. That’s why when you have a special thing, you never want to let it go.”

Former Indianapolis Colts general manager, ESPN analyst Bill Polian: “I think the combination of what you’re giving up versus the quality of the coach — in the free-agency/salary-cap era, it’s much harder to replace players than it is coaches. If you lose a couple 1s and a couple 2s and maybe even a 3, it’s harder to replace those picks because of the salary cap. So the only way to deal with the salary cap is to play a cadre of young players, and the only way to do that is through the draft. So the circumstances now with the collective bargaining agreement, free agency and the salary cap are different than they were prior, so I think people are far less willing to part with high draft choices.”

Smith: “This is what people don’t understand: One Super Bowl is worth 20 years of mediocrity.”

Davis, who had been the principal owner and general manager of the Raiders for 39 years, died on Oct. 8, 2011. He was 82. In a candid news conference nine months before his death, he said he had no regrets about trading Gruden. “Oh no, no, I don’t. No. Not at all. Nope,” Davis told the Mercury News. “Because look, Jon beat us in the god damn Super Bowl, that’s the only thing I regret. But take a look at Jon’s performance at Tampa.”

Glazer: “It was a big risk, a big gamble with everything that we gave up. But at the end of the day, I’ve got this [points to a Super Bowl ring] and he’s got this. We all have this and those that were a part of those memories that come with that.”

Gruden: “It really made me work harder. It really gave me the incentive to do the very best that I could for Mr. Glazer and his family that made that trade, because it was a lot to live up to. Perhaps I never will live up to it, but I’m not dead yet.”

NFL

Barnwell: Three options to fix the NFL's catch rule

Under the NFL’s definition of a catch, the league was right to take away what looked to be a game-winning Jesse James touchdown catch at the end of Sunday night’s Patriots-Steelers game. There are still unanswered questions — notably, if the call was as easy as the explanations of Alberto Riveron and Tony Corrente have suggested, why it took what felt like 10 minutes to overturn the call — but everyone on the league side of things seems to agree that the review was processed properly and led to the correct call.

  • There have been way too many controversial reversals of touchdowns this season. What happened on Sunday with Jesse James wasn’t one of them.

  • A dramatic ending to the Steelers-Patriots matchup turned controversial after officials overruled what appeared to be a go-ahead touchdown catch by the Steelers tight end Jesse James — a decision derided by James and several of his teammates.

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Here’s the problem, though: just about everyone who has watched a football game before also thinks James caught that football. Watch the replay. The Patriots defenders who surround James after the play aren’t arguing it’s incomplete. Bill Belichick, who would have been pictured frantically gesturing on camera in the case he thought it was a drop, isn’t depicted. Jim Nantz says “there’s no doubt it’s going to hold up,” as he and Tony Romo spend two minutes watching replays before it even occurs to them that the ball spun slightly as James hit the ground.

The rule was interpreted correctly, but the rule is bad. There are plenty of problems with the NFL right now, but many of them are either intractable or downright unfixable. The catch rule is not one of them. The NFL has to fix it, and that might require a totally radical sort of solution. Let’s make arguments for three very different types of changes to the much-hated catch rule.

Option 1: The evolution

While the NFL’s catch rules certainly aren’t perfect, they’ve evolved the way they have for a reason. Tangible in-game examples (like the Bert Emanuel rule) have driven practical changes to the laws over time. They’re never going to fix the problem and make everyone happy all the time, but no rule on paper is ever going to address every possible in-game catch situation. As a result, the league needs to be proactive about monitoring how the rule is impacting games and be comfortable making changes every year or two accordingly.

With that in mind, the league’s catch rule isn’t really all that bad over the first 99.9 yards of the field. Most of the complaints we’ve seen over the past few years, starting most memorably with the Dez Bryant catch, revolve around touchdowns and would-be touchdowns. Those plays are always going to stand out in the mind because of their importance, but they’re also where the current rules seem to fall apart.

The Calvin Johnson rule, so-called for taking a touchdown away from one of the league’s star wide receivers in Week 1 of the 2010 season, simply doesn’t work. It leaves too much up for interpretation and offers little clarity into what receivers actually need to do to ensure a touchdown. James’s catch fell short because he failed to, as Corrente described, “survive the ground.” The ball moved slightly as James hit the ground, but independent of the rulebook, it’s clear that James caught the ball, only for it to budge slightly as he leaned forward to try to push ahead of the plane.

Tight end Jesse James finished with two catches for 7 yards, and his go-ahead touchdown in the final minute was called off. AP Photo/Don Wright

To improve matters, let’s get rid of the surviving the ground rule and stop taking away touchdown catches for balls that narrowly drop slightly after a player’s established contact. Runners can score touchdowns just by flashing the ball over the plane of the goal line, but receivers currently need to complete their catch to the ground to become runners and qualify for touchdowns. Under our rule change, a player becomes a runner as soon as he catches it and gets two feet (or one knee or elbow or cheek, as Damiere Byrd exhibited Sunday) inbounds.

This rule isn’t perfect, but it’s an improvement. We don’t have to go back to the “football move” conundrum with this change. He doesn’t have to turn upfield or hold onto the football until his teammates have started their synchronized celebration. If the receiver bobbles the ball on the way to the ground and never actually makes a firm catch, that’s an incomplete pass. Otherwise, if he catches the ball on his feet (or back) and establishes himself inbounds, it’s a catch.

To go along with it, let’s fix the actual worst rule in football, when a fumble through the pylon becomes a turnover and a touchback for the other team. Nobody likes this rule outside of the one game every three or four seasons in which it benefits their team. The problem is that the solution of simply giving the ball back to the offense on the one-yard line basically gives offensive players a free opportunity to reach for the pylon with no repercussions, given that a swatted ball near the pylon is almost always going to go out of bounds.

Fortunately, Twitter fixed that for us. I asked about possible solutions to this problem back in October and certified genius @chiefdog10 solved our crisis with what he called the “self-touchback.” I like “reverse touchback,” but the idea’s his. When the ball is fumbled out of bounds through the pylon, don’t turn the ball over. Just push it back to the 20-yard line. I’ll add that the down should count, so the reverse touchback basically costs you 19-plus yards of field position but otherwise lets you keep the football. You’re punished for fumbling, but it’s not the eight-point swing (including the missing touchdown and the possession given to the other team) which comes with the current rule.

These changes don’t solve the catch rule problem, but they eliminate the most frustrating and confusing plays we complain about on Sundays. James’s catch would have been ruled a completion and then a momentary fumble as he hit the ground and stretched forward, which he would have then recovered. The Steelers wouldn’t have been awarded a touchdown, but they would have been able to get back on the ball at the one-inch line.

Option 2: The de-evolution

The league’s catch rule is too complicated, and all the changes we’ve made have turned it into something like an overfit model. We’re asking a lot of refs on a weekly basis as they deal with an increasingly speedy game. The current replay system makes it so that referees often rule a big play a turnover or a touchdown on the field, which creates an automatic review but one inherently likely to lead to those decisions being upheld, given that ties go to the call on the field. The widespread unpopularity and confusion surrounding the catch rule means we have to start over.

So, let’s go with what Larry Fitzgerald suggested should be the new rule two years ago. If a receiver catches the ball and gets two feet, a knee, an elbow, or a cheek on the ground, it’s a catch. If he stays upright and the ball is stripped out of his hands or he bobbles it, the ball becomes a live fumble.

Doesn’t that feel refreshingly simple and comprehensible? We still need to come up with a clear definition of “catch,” but let’s try to keep that to the shortest possible definition. Maybe it becomes a catch at the moment when the receiver grabs the ball in his hands without bobbling it. Perhaps you put a timeframe on it, like the receiver cradles the ball for a half-second or a full second.

This will unquestionably increase fumbles, which will be fodder for the tiresome and flimsy arguments about how football has always been great and is now suddenly worse. That’s fine. The league’s turnover rate has been dropping steadily for decades. Fumbles are fun plays. Everyone loves to point. Players will also adapt and begin to protect the football earlier through the catch process. It will also mean more catches, but how often do you hear people complaining that something was ruled a catch when it shouldn’t have been? We’re living in a Golden Age of receivers. Let’s reward Antonio Brown and Julio Jones for being amazing.

Ben Roethlisberger had 281 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Photo by Philip G. Pavely/USA TODAY Sports

Option 3: The revolution

There is a group of people out there who believe that the catch rule should revolve around what Bruce Arians refers to as “common sense.” The eye test is almost always a phrase used to excuse anecdotal nonsense, but players and fans alike have seen enough football to know whether something’s a catch or not. The plays in the NFL are simply too fast for a referee to judge in real-time, and we shouldn’t be using frame-by-frame replay to judge something that happened at top speed and overturn a catch over a slight budge seconds later. There is no language capable of solving the catch rule.

So, if you know whether something’s a catch or not from watching a play in context, let’s use our eyes to decide. And since this is my idea, we’re not turning things over to a head referee to watch on video. Let me introduce you to The Committee.

Whenever there’s an NFL game going on, a committee of 50 ex-NFL players will assemble in New York (or California or some other central location). The committee will consist of 25 former receivers and 25 defensive backs. You can change the numbers however you want — maybe it’s 10 at each position or 32 players and each team can nominate a wide receiver or a defensive back in alternating years — but the idea is the same.

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These players have one job: whenever there is a question about a catch which is challenged via the coach’s flag or any of the automatic review situations, they get 60 seconds to watch replays of the catch and then vote “Yes” or “No.” They will be provided with whatever catch rules the NFL wants to suggest, but at the end of the day, they have one principle which overrides that concept: if they think it’s a catch, our voting panel should vote “Yes.” If not, they should vote otherwise.

And yes, before you ask: this should be treated like an episode of Who Wants to be A Millionaire. We should see the votes update in real-time on the screen, although the individual votes should be kept anonymous to the public. There should be a bunch of cameras in the room. Shine a light on each player as we get to the final few and the vote’s at 24-24 so we can watch Wes Welker and Jabari Greer agonize over their decision. Imagine the crowd roaring as they see the vote count rising in their favor on the jumbotron. This could be great television.

Players should be allowed to remain on the committee for up to 10 years, but we want to eventually find a consensus on what isn’t a catch. As a result, while the votes should remain anonymous to the public, the league should keep track of the individual votes and prevent the five players who differed from the majority most frequently from joining the committee in the future. (This would be bad if the consensus was wrong, but the consensus should be pretty in line with popular opinion with a large enough sample.

No, this won’t be cheap, and it wouldn’t be a perfect solution. I suspect referees might not take kindly to giving away this element of power. It would also make for great television, and we would have far fewer controversial calls than we do now. We’re never going to fix the catch rule. Let’s at least have some fun with it and think outside of the box for a compelling and possibly entertaining solution instead.

NFL

Fantasy Fallout: Can Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson save your season?

Aaron Rodgers tried to tone down the buzz surrounding his return from a broken collarbone this week by insisting that he’s not coming back to “save” the Green Bay Packers.

But what about your fantasy team?

Chances are, you have a much tougher decision to make this week than the Packers, who won’t hesitate to throw Rodgers right back into their starting lineup. You’ve probably got an all-or-nothing playoff matchup and a good backup quarterback who helped get you there.

ESPN’s fantasy experts have faith in Rodgers, though. He is ranked among the top five quarterbacks this week. And ESPN Packers reporter Rob Demovsky offered a history lesson this week that should provide hope.

As Demovsky wrote, Rodgers came back strong from a similar hiatus in 2013, when he missed seven games with a broken collarbone in his non-throwing shoulder (this time it has been eight weeks, and it’s his throwing shoulder). Rodgers completed 25 of 39 passes for 318 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his first game back last time.

Before Aaron Rodgers got hurt, Jordy Nelson had an NFL-leading six TDs in the first five games. AP Photo/Mike Roemer

“I know it was four years ago, but [that game] should give us a good idea of how he’ll operate,” Demovsky said. “Mike McCarthy did a masterful job playcalling, getting the ball out of Rodgers’ hands quickly. It meant a lot of screens, hitches and dumpoffs, but they kept the chains moving and it added up to a 318-yard, two-touchdown day.

“Yes there was some rust; Rodgers threw two early interceptions. But he got better as the game went on.”

Receiver Jordy Nelson is an even tougher choice for fantasy owners, since he has gone ice cold during Rodgers’ hiatus (a total of 22 catches for 153 yards and zero TDs in seven games). But the 32-year-old has been a go-to guy for Rodgers for years. And before Rodgers got hurt, Nelson had 19 catches for 230 yards and an NFL-leading six TDs in the first five games.

Back in 2013, Nelson’s numbers also dipped significantly while Rodgers was hurt. Then, he caught 10 passes for 161 yards in Rodgers’ first game back.

“I know there’s a lot of juice left in 87. I’d like to fill that up this week,” Rodgers said of Nelson this week — unprompted when he was actually being asked about fellow Packers receiver Davante Adams.

Last, but not least, is rookie Packers running back Jamaal Williams, who has broken out with 545 total yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns during the last five weeks.

“I think we’re finally safe to say that Jamaal Williams is the guy,” Demovsky said of the question as to whether Williams or fellow rookie Aaron Jones would be the lead back when both were healthy.

The Packers won’t stop running the ball just because Rodgers is back. In fact, the run game and short passing game should be his best friends.

Life without Wentz:

On the flip side, the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles now must try to survive without their MVP candidate quarterback, Carson Wentz, who tore his ACL this past Sunday.

Fortunately, the Eagles have an experienced backup in Nick Foles. But ESPN Eagles reporter Tim McManus said in this week’s Insider fantasy Q&A with Mike Clay that Alshon Jeffery and the outside receivers could take the biggest hit from the QB change, since Foles is less mobile than Wentz and will be operating behind a banged-up offensive line. McManus predicts more steady work for slot receiver Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz on short and intermediate routes.

McManus also wrote Friday that he sees this as the perfect time to break out running back Jay Ajayi, who has played a dynamic but limited role since the Eagles acquired him in a trade from the Miami Dolphins in Week 9. Ajayi is averaging 7.0 yards per carry in five games with Philadelphia, but he has only 44 total carries in that span. This past week, he ran 15 times for 78 yards in a 43-35 thriller over the Los Angeles Rams — the first time he had reached double-digit carries since joining Philly.

“With Wentz sidelined … they’ll need to maximize the talent at their disposal to help compensate for the major loss,” McManus wrote. “Ajayi has been without question the team’s most untapped resource to date.”

Life without McCown:

Josh McCown’s season-ending hand injury will also hurt some fantasy owners. Not only does he rank 13th among quarterbacks in ESPN’s fantasy scoring this year, but New York Jets receivers Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse both rank in the top 25. Anderson ranks ninth among receivers in fantasy scoring since Week 6.

ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini wrote that there will definitely be a drop-off from McCown to new QB Bryce Petty, but he stressed that “it would be wrong to totally dismiss Anderson as a fantasy option” because of his history with Petty. Cimini said Anderson was Petty’s “go-to receiver” last year in four starts and two relief appearances, with more targets than any player on the teams, including Brandon Marshall.

Of course, Cimini pointed out that four of those targets turned into interceptions for Petty, so don’t expect perfectly smooth sailing.

Worth a click:

  • Drew Brees has been good this year (on pace for the highest completion percentage in NFL history and just seven interceptions). But as I wrote this week as the ESPN New Orleans Saints reporter, the Saints need to hope Brees’ best is yet to come. He is on pace for his lowest yards per game and passing TDs since he joined New Orleans in 2006, and he’s coming off an ill-advised interception in the final minutes of last week’s 20-17 loss at Atlanta.

  • Meanwhile, Michael Thomas, who is on pace for a franchise-record 105 receptions, should become the Saints’ first Pro Bowl receiver in the Brees-Payton era.

  • ESPN Baltimore Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley asked whether Alex Collins has been proving that he is the team’s running back of the future. The 23-year-old ranks tenth in the NFL with 825 rushing yards this season. He finally scored his first touchdown last month — then rattled off a total of five in a three-game span. And he rushed for a career-high 120 yards against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers on the road this past Sunday night.

  • A few more questions that were dissected by ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters this week: Does Rams RB Todd Gurley need more touches? What’s wrong with Raiders QB Derek Carr? And is Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles playing “like Tom Brady?” (No, but he is more confident, and he’s on a roll).

  • His mind clear, Detroit’s Eric Ebron has been one of the NFL’s top tight ends since the trade deadline.

  • Tyreek Hill is proving he’s worthy of being the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver.

  • Jets tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins is unhappy with his slump, but he remains hopeful.

  • Young Redskins receiver Josh Doctson shows glimpses of talent, but he still must prove he can be a No. 1 receiver.

  • Young Jaguars wide receivers Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole are finding success with playing time.

  • Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is still trusting his “process” after a three-pick game last week.

  • Back to basics: How the Titans plan to revive Marcus Mariota and their struggling offense.

  • Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins said going against top cornerbacks is “what I live for.” His wish will come true Sunday against the Jaguars.

NFL

Berry's Love/Hate for Week 15

I was 7 years old when the original Star Wars movie was released and, as often is the case, what was important to me at age 7 became really important to me — beloved, even — now that I’m … older. I’ve made all my kids watch “A New Hope,” and while there are varying degrees of appreciation from them (it can move a bit slow for the Snapchat generation) they all enjoyed it much more than you’d think they would for a movie that came out in 1977. I can’t tell you how much joy I felt the other night when I came home and my wife and 6-year-old twins were watching the last 20 minutes of “The Empire Strikes Back,” which was on cable somewhere.

  • Fantasy football rankings from Matthew Berry, Field Yates, Mike Clay, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft for Week 15 of the NFL season.

  • Matchups are a driving force behind weekly lineup decisions in fantasy football. Here are the most and least favorable matchups at QB, RB, WR and TE for Week 15 in the NFL.

  • The guys at the line of scrimmage have a huge impact on every play, and that means your fantasy fate often rests in their hands. Check out the best and worst matchups along the lines in Week 15.

2 Related

“Daddy, I love R2-D2!” one of the girls screamed.

It’s an interesting phenomenon. We discussed this on the podcast earlier this year and it was discovered that “Thirsty” Kyle Soppe, our show’s mid-20s researcher, had never seen Star Wars. We assigned him a written report on it right then and there (which he aced with flying colors.)

There are more people who haven’t seen any of the Star Wars movies. I know of at least one, my friend DJ, who is a writer and producer on The Fantasy Show. He is oddly and hilariously proud of it. So for those people like DJ — or Kyle three months ago — hopefully you will enjoy this column and it will encourage you to watch them all. And if, like me, you’ve seen them all way too many times to count and you’re super-hyped for “The Last Jedi,” hopefully you will enjoy an ode to a galaxy far, far away with some of my favorite Star Wars quotes and what they can teach us (well, loosely; let’s not get crazy here) about prospering in a fantasy football playoffs universe fraught with danger.

“Get in there, you big furry oaf! I don’t care what you smell!” — Han Solo

That’s right. Dive into this column. I don’t care that, after a quick Google search of “Star Wars quotes” I discovered a ton of other people who have written about their favorite Star Wars quotes. I don’t care that the “take a bunch of quotes from something in popular culture and relate them to something else” premise has also been done to death. I don’t care that these aren’t all the “best” quotes from the movies but rather just moments I really liked, browsed from StarWars.com and ShortList.com, so if any of the words are wrong, send your complaints there. I don’t care that I wrote a baseball column with this exact same premise and some of the same quotes (including this one) five years ago. I also don’t care that they are somewhat out of order; save your nerd fight for someone who does. In short, this is my column, there’s a brand new Star Wars movie out, Luke is in it, I’m geeked up, so I don’t care what you smell, you big furry oaf. Get in there.

Little-known fact: C-3PO (the handsome one on the left) is fluent in more than 6 million forms of custom fantasy football scoring systems. Courtesy of Matthew Berry

“Great, kid! Don’t get cocky!” — Han Solo

It’s the fantasy playoffs. But every week is a new battle. Your team might be full of rock stars, but ask anyone who had Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans and Jimmy Graham how they did last week. If you’re still alive this week, that’s awesome. But nothing is guaranteed. Scour that wire, even if it’s done defensively, to take someone away from your opponent. Do the research. Grind the numbers. You’re not done yet, kid. Don’t get cocky.

“When 900 years old, you reach … Look as good, you will not.” — Yoda

It has been a tough two weeks, I get it. And yes, the past few years have seen a slight dip for Tom Brady’s numbers in the fantasy playoffs compared to what he was doing in the regular season. But he gets Gronk back this week, a second week of Chris Hogan and a matchup with the Steelers with playoff seeding implications coming off a loss in which his Patriots were embarrassed. Maybe you don’t put any stock in the old “chip on the shoulder” game, but in the past three seasons, Brady has averaged almost four points more per game coming off a loss (24.52 PPG) than a win (20.55 PPG), eclipsing 28 PPG 60 percent of the time. You’re starting ticked-off 40-year-old Tom Brady.

“You can’t win, Darth. Strike me down, and I will become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.” Obi-Wan Kenobi

Damien Williams. Ty Montgomery. Terrance West. Ezekiel Elliott. Rob Kelley. All of them, for one reason or another, were struck down and in their places have come players who are more powerful than some of the guys you drafted. Yeah, it’s a stretch to use this quote for this, but whatever. It’s a Week 15 column and two lines ago, I quoted a 900-year-old puppet. Just go with it. Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams and Alex Collins are legit must-start studs, and, in a flex sort of way, Alfred Morris and Samaje Perine will be helpful to you.

The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry airs at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2 every weekday. We will, however, be on ESPN on Mondays during the season. There are also late night re-airs (check your listings and set those DVRs) and replays are always available on WatchESPN by clicking on the NFL tab.

“It’s a trap!” — Admiral Ackbar

You knew this one was coming. But worrying about DeAndre Hopkins because he is facing Jacksonville is silly. Yes, a very tough matchup and Houston’s down to its third-string QB, but remember that he went 7 for 55 and a score in Week 1 versus those Jags, he’s an elite talent and gets such a huge target share that I can’t imagine getting cute and benching him.

“Fear is the path to the dark side” — Yoda

Playoffs baby. Not the time for the timid. Winners are decisive. You’ve gotten this far, baby, you got this. Own it.

“I find your lack of faith disturbing” — Darth Vader

Look, I get it. Totally. But for the QB desperate among you, Blake Bortles — you heard me, Blake Bortles — now has three straight games with 18 fantasy points. He’s the fifth-highest scoring QB in that span. He has at least 16 fantasy points in six of his past seven games (No. 12 in that span). He’s averaging 18.2 points at home this year and now he gets a Texans defense that gives up the fourth-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Bortles is a legit high-end QB2 streamer this week.

“Charming to the last. You don’t know how hard I found it, signing the order to terminate your life.” — Governor Tarkin

I wanted it to work out, Marcus Mariota. I really did.

“Do. Or do not. There is no try.” — Yoda

Forget Star Wars. That’s just one of my favorite quotes of all time, period.

“Obi-Wan Kenobi. Obi-Wan. Now that’s a name I have not heard in a long time. A long time.” — Obi-Wan Kenobi

It has been a long eight weeks, Aaron Rodgers. A long eight weeks. But man is it good to see you.

“I suggest a new strategy, R2: Let the Wookiee win.” — C-3P0

Hey, they don’t all have to be about fantasy football. That’s just good life advice.

Let’s get to it. As always, the Force is strong with Kyle Soppe and Jacob Nitzberg, who helped at various parts of this column. Reminder, please check my rankings Sunday morning for the latest as news and value changes throughout this week. Here we go.

Quarterbacks I love in Week 15

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Yes, no doubt, the Patriots’ defense is legit these days but so is #HomeBen, who, since that disaster against the Jags in Week 5, has now completed 67 percent of his passes at Heinz Field, averaged 345 yards a game and has 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions in those games. He’s averaging more than 26 fantasy points a game in that home stretch, and it’s no surprise Vegas has this as the highest over/under on the board this week. Gimme #HomeBen as a top-five play this week in a potential shootout with the Patriots.

Aaron Rodgers is happy to trade in the winter hat for his helmet this week, but should you have confidence starting him in fantasy? Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Aaron Rodgers, Packers: Think a lot of people see Carolina and go, hmm, that’s a tough matchup. I humbly submit: not so much. The Panthers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of the past five games (and eight of the past 11) and given up the fourth-most passing yards per game the past four weeks. Do I really need to give you “Aaron Rodgers is good” stats? I get it, he’s rusty, but I don’t care. I’d have to have a pretty good option to leave A-Rod on the bench. When things are desperate, A-Rod delivers, as he was the best QB in terms of fantasy points in the final six weeks of 2016. He’s a top-five play for me.

Others receiving votes: Case Keenum is averaging 276 passing yards a game since Week 8, and should deliver low-end QB1 numbers against a Bengals squad that has coughed up more than 250 passing yards in six straight games, including against the likes of Brock Osweiler, Mitchell Trubisky and the currently awful Marcus Mariota. … Don’t look now but Blake Bortles has bortled his way to at least 16 points in six of his past seven games (QB11 in that span) and has three straight games with at least 18 points. He’s the fifth-best QB in fantasy the past three weeks and faces a Texans team that allows the fourth-most points to opposing QBs. … Speaking of good matchups, the Giants have allowed six QBs to reach 20 fantasy points in a game, tied for most in the league. They are 28th vs. the pass the past four weeks, giving Nick Foles some streamer appeal for the desperate.

Quarterbacks I hate in Week 15

Kirk Cousins, Redskins: Look, you know I love Kirk long term. Please, Washington, pay this man. I believe he is a true franchise QB worthy of being paid as one of the top QBs in the NFL. But behind that beat-up offensive line (the entire offense is so beat-up), I have a hard time trusting him this week in 10-team leagues. Since Week 13 he’s merely QB24, averaging just 10.7 points a game in that span. Facing an Arizona squad that is top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs since Week 10 and the third-best passing defense during the past four weeks, I have Cousins outside my top 12.

Alex Smith, Chiefs: Back home at Arrowhead (ding!) where, oddly, Smith has been merely QB17 among qualifiers in points per game, it’s hard to get excited about Smith this week as he now has less than 14 points in three of his past four weeks. Yes, some brutal luck with drops and overturned calls last week (I see you, Kelce), but still. Hard to see that turning around against a Chargers team that allows the third-fewest points per game to opposing QBs (including the fewest the past four weeks) and has allowed just 15.1 points or less to QBs in 10 of 13 games this year (tied for the most such games). He had just 15.1 points against the Bolts in Week 3 (you know, when he was the hottest QB in football), so I don’t see a huge game from Smith here.

Running backs I love in Week 15

Jordan Howard, Bears: The next time the Lions hold Howard under 110 total yards will be the first time (6.31 yards per carry, three career games). Since Week 6, the Lions are allowing the third-most RB PPG and a league-high 2.11 yards per carry AFTER first contact, while the Bears are gaining the fifth-most yards per carry BEFORE first contact in that span. Detroit is 30th against the run the past four weeks, making Howard a top-10 play for me.

Devonta Freeman, Falcons: Loved the workload he got last week and now on extra rest, he faces a Tampa Bay team that has allowed multiple RB rushing touchdowns in three straight games. The Falcons played the Bucs in Week 12 (Freeman missed that game) and ran all over them — their running backs rushed 26 times for 132 yards and 2 TDs in that one — so I would expect more of the same on Monday night as they have gone conservative lately. Since Week 7, Matt Ryan is dropping back to pass at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Freeman a top-10 play against the 23rd-ranked run defense the past four weeks.

Alex Collins has all five of his touchdowns this season in his past four starts. Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Collins, Ravens: This is a great matchup for Collins, as the Cleveland Browns have allowed the seventh-most RB points per game since Week 8 and surrendered the 11th-most yards after first contact per carry in that span. Since the Ravens’ bye in Week 10, it has been all Collins (128-77 snap advantage over Danny Woodhead) and he has been the fifth-best RB in fantasy in total points. I have Collins as a top-10 play this week.

Others receiving votes: Off his big Monday night, Kenyan Drake faces a Bills defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs in the league this season. … Since Week 8, teams are averaging 28 running back carries a game against Washington, third most in the NFL. That volume should play out this week for Kerwynn Williams, as Arizona’s lead back has gotten 89 percent of the RB carries since Week 6. Williams is one of just three RBs with at least 16 carries and 70 yards in each of the past two weeks (Melvin Gordon and Drake being the other two). Williams is a solid flex play for me. … Mike Davis is banged up, so check the injury reports all week, but the Rams are giving up the fourth-most yards per carry before first contact this season (20.3 percent above league average) and are 27th against the run the past four weeks. You could do worse than Davis. … Jonathan Stewart was started in less than 10 percent of leagues last week in his huge game, but he’s back on the flex radar this week. He’s had at least 15 carries in three of the past four games, and only Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde have more goal-to-go rushes than Stewart this season. He’s touchdown dependent, but against the Packers’ bottom-10 run defense the past four weeks, he’s got a decent shot.

Running backs I hate in Week 15

Lamar Miller, Texans: I get it, with third-string QB T.J. Yates under center this Sunday, maybe the Texans try to lean on the run on the road at Jacksonville, but I’m not sure how successful that will be. Since the Jags’ Week 8 bye, they have allowed opposing RBs to average 3.6 yards per carry (seventh fewest in the league in that span) and just one rushing score. In his past four games, Miller is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry with just one TD. Miller is a very low-end RB2 this week.

DeMarco Murray, Titans: I know, it feels like Murray is a weekly staple here, but since the Titans’ Week 8 bye, he’s averaging 2.77 yards per carry, 49th among 50 qualified players. Derrick Henry is averaging 5.48 yards per carry in that span. However, he’s also on the hate list this week because of a matchup with San Francisco that, believe it or not, isn’t as appealing as it was earlier in the season. Since Week 8, the 49ers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, are top 10 in fewest yards allowed per carry, fewest rushing touchdowns allowed and number of 20-yard runs against. They haven’t allowed a rushing score to a running back since Week 8 and Murray is going to need a TD here to pay off, as he is averaging just 10.8 carries per game in his past six.

“Bengals RB”: As of this writing, we don’t know if it will be Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard or a combo, but either way, expect tough sledding against a Vikings team that leads the league in terms of fewest yards gained per carry AFTER first contact. Why is that an issue? The Bengals are 29th in yards per carry BEFORE first contact. Yes, Jonathan Stewart had three touchdowns against the Vikes last week, anything can happen, but even with that, they still are allowing the fewest running back fantasy points per game.

Wide receivers I love in Week 15

Jordy Nelson, Packers: I know it has looked ugly at times lately, but with Aaron Rodgers back, so too is Jordy Nelson in fantasy lineups. At the time Rodgers got hurt this season, Nelson was WR6. And it’s not a fluke. Over the past five years, on a per-game basis, Nelson has averaged 19.8 FPPG with Rodgers under center. That’s a 41-game sample size, which would make him WR3 this season, behind only Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Facing a Panthers team that is 29th against the pass the past four weeks, Nelson is a top-15 play for me this week.

Rotopass

By fantasy players, for fantasy players. As a gift or just for yourself, gear up and show your pride about the game we all love. — TMR

Chris Hogan, Patriots: The box score wasn’t pretty, but you can say that for most of the Patriots last week. However, in his first game back since Week 8, Hogan played 89.1 percent of the snaps. Despite missing significant time, he remains the only player to have a streak longer than three straight games (he did it in four straight) with 60 receiving yards AND a receiving TD this season. In fact, no one had a streak longer than three last season, either). He almost had a score last week, and you have to like the matchup here against a Steelers team that is bottom 10 in pass defense the past four weeks, and since Week 9 ranks as a bottom-seven defense against deep passes (completions, yards, completion percentage and touchdowns). I have Hogan inside my top 20.

Marquise Goodwin, 49ers: Since Week 10, he has quietly been the 15th-best wide receiver in fantasy on a per-game basis. He has gone four straight games now with at least 11 points and has 20 targets in Jimmy Garoppolo’s two starts. Facing a Titans team that has allowed more than 38 WR points in the majority of games this season (seven of 13), I like Goodwin as a top-25 play with upside this week.

Others receiving votes: Tampa Bay has allowed the most receptions, second-most receiving yards, highest completion percentage and most receiving scores to wideouts lined up in the slot. So yeah, gimme some Mohamed Sanu, who has more than 11 points in six of his past eight games. … Dede Westbrook now has at least five receptions and eight targets in three straight games. He has at least 75 yards in back-to-back games, and since making his NFL debut in Week 11 he leads the Jaguars in receptions, receiving yards and targets. It’s a great matchup this week, as the Texans allow the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs. … As Mike Clay notes in his always excellent WR/CB matchup column, New England gives up the most fantasy points by players lined up in the slot this season, so JuJu Smith-Schuster is worth a flier if you’re in a deeper league.

Wide receivers I hate in Week 15

Tyreek Hill has nine catches of at least 25 yards in his past seven games. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs: You already know I think Alex Smith struggles here, and part of the reason why is Hill. The Chargers lead the NFL in fewest deep yards allowed (54.5 per game), deep completion rate (27.9 percent) and deep completions (1.9 per game). We know how much Hill relies on yards after the catch, right? Well, the Chargers are also better than league average in terms of limiting yards after the catch (both per game and per reception). He’s a low-end WR2 for me this week.

DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers: The Falcons are rarely beat deep. They allow just 54.7 deep yards per game (second fewest) and frankly, you don’t know what you’re getting out of Jackson targetwise. Here are his targets over his past seven games: 8-4-10-3-11-3-7. With just one touchdown and no catches gaining 25-plus yards during his past eight games, he’s way too boom or bust for me in a crucial playoff week.

T.Y. Hilton, Colts: I don’t even have him as a top-40 WR this week. In his past eight games, Hilton has 19 receptions for 345 yards and 3 TDs. More than half the yards (175) and two of the three TDs came in one of those games (Week 9 vs. Texans). Otherwise, he has had two or fewer catches and fewer than 30 yards in six of his past eight games. Combine that with a short-week matchup against a Broncos defense that has yet to allow a 100-yard game to a wide receiver this season and I just can’t see using him.

Tight ends I love in Week 15

Jack Doyle, Colts: Great matchup for Doyle, as the Broncos have allowed a tight end touchdown in five of the past seven games, and overall, Denver gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Since Week 6, Doyle has struggled in three games against the Jags and Steelers (both top 11 in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends), but is averaging 17 points a game against all other opponents in that span.

Others receiving votes: Tight ends have accounted for nine of Jameis Winston’s 14 touchdowns this season, putting Cameron Brate on the TE2 radar. … For the desperate/touchdown chasers at tight end, of the guys who have very favorable matchups, Benjamin Watson, Ricky Seals-Jones and Charles Clay would be my suggestions.

Tight ends I hate in Week 15

Vernon Davis, Redskins: Yes, he got into the end zone last week, but that was his first touchdown since Week 3. He also had scored single-digit fantasy points in the three games prior to last week. Week 6 was the last time a TE had more than 42 receiving yards against Arizona. He’s outside my top 10.

Greg Olsen, Panthers: It’s Week 15. Even if he’s fully healthy (no guarantee), there’s literally nothing he has done this season to suggest faith in starting him against a Packers team that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, wants you to know the Force is with you. He is the creator of RotoPass.com, the founder of the Fantasy Life app and a paid spokesperson for DRAFT.

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“If you think about it, I've never held a job in my life. I went from being an NFL player to a coach to a broadcaster. I haven't worked a day in my life.”
-John Madden


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