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NFL

Gurley for MVP? Sorry, he wasn't even NFL's best running back

If, at the last minute, the NFL added a most valuable running back award to its NFL Honors program on Saturday, Todd Gurley would be the runaway favorite. He is the only running back in the MVP conversation, after all.

He would also be the wrong choice. Because there was another running back who produced much more than Gurley in far fewer opportunities: Alvin Kamara.

Gurley’s candidacy for MVRB (this make-believe award already has an acronym and everything) stems from him leading the league in yards from scrimmage (2,093) and in rushing and receiving combined touchdowns (19). Especially when considering that the next highest rushing/receiving touchdown total was 13 (by DeAndre Hopkins and Kamara), why isn’t the Rams running back the obvious choice here?

Because we have better tools to measure value than just yards and touchdowns these days. For starters, we’ll lean on a team’s expected points added (EPA) when the running back in question touches the ball or is targeted. (A primer on EPA can be found here.)

The Saints offense was incredibly efficient when getting or attempting to get Kamara the ball. Among players with at least 100 combined rushes and targets, Kamara not only had the best rate of team EPA/attempted touch (0.32), but he almost doubled up the next most efficient team EPA per attempted touch running back, Washington’s Chris Thompson (0.18).

Which is nice and impressive. But we’re looking for the most valuable running back, and so this isn’t strictly a question of efficiency. Kamara took time to work his way into a major role in the offense and only had 218 attempted touches, compared to 348 from Kareem Hunt and 363 from Todd Gurley. So there couldn’t possibly have been a higher team EPA total on his attempted touches, right? Well…

Best Team EPA among NFL running backs, 2017

It’s not even close.

How did Kamara get there? By being part of plays like his 74-yard touchdown run against the Rams in Week 12, in which he went untouched for 64 yards before casually breaking a tackle to skip into the end zone. And his 33-yard conversion on fourth-and-5 later in that same game, recorded while trying to keep the Saints alive. Or the 33-yard touchdown on a screen pass against the Bucs in Week 9, in which the former University of Tennessee running back appeared destined to hit the ground at the 12-yard line before slipping out of Justin Evans’ grasp and scoring.

By the way, the table above doesn’t even include Kamara’s highest EPA play of the season: a 106-yard kick return in Week 17 against the Bucs.

It’s not that Gurley didn’t have plays like this, it’s just that, in total, those Kamara plays added so much more. One area that Gurley was weak in, though: third-and-1 runs. He converted only six of 14 attempts on such runs (43 percent) when the league average conversion rate on those rushes was almost 73 percent. Those kinds of misses are costly. (Kamara only attempted two such runs and converted one, for what it’s worth).

One note to keep in mind: Three passes intended for Gurley were intercepted (compared to zero for Kamara), which is likely just a stroke of bad luck for the Rams running back in this sort of study. Nonetheless, even if we only looked at completions — rather than targets — for those two running backs Kamara still leads, and it still isn’t remotely close.

Though a rookie surrounded by a lot of weapons, Alvin Kamara brought more value than Gurley. Chris Graythen/Getty Images

You may have noticed a pattern among the five running backs listed above (Thompson probably gave it away): they are all pass-catching backs. And that’s not a coincidence, but rather a function of the fact that, in general, passing plays are more productive than running plays. On average, running plays have a negative EPA, so that the Rams added 0.00 expected points on Gurley runs this year isn’t really a knock: it’s above average.

On one hand, this shows the value of multi-dimensional running backs. On the other, we are talking about the most valuable running back. And it’s not their fault that running, on average a sub-optimal part of an offense, is part of the position’s job description. So if there was another running back who added more value on the ground than Kamara, that could muddy the waters here. The good news: there isn’t. Kamara led all backs in team EPA on running plays only as well. So he swept the running and passing game categories in 2017, which should just about do it.

Almost.

The last type of measurement we’ll consider here is win probability added. If we’re measuring the value of a running back’s plays by the degree to which they swung a game, then WPA is where we ought to look. Personally, I don’t think either EPA or WPA ought to be a catch-all for MVP. EPA doesn’t include enough context (like garbage time) but WPA relies on situations far too heavily. The truth is in between.

Regardless, WPA is Gurley’s best case for this pretend award. Gurley (cumulative win probability added of 1.93) trails Kamara (1.95) here too, but only just. But maybe, if there’s wiggle room somewhere, Gurley could pull ahead.

And of course there’s wiggle room. Because the dark cloud over this entire analysis is that we’re not measuring each player’s contribution. We’re measuring the team’s productivity on plays when the running back had an attempted touch. Even when Kamara does run or catch the ball, there are 10 other players on his team working for that same EPA result.

For quarterbacks, we’re further along. We’ve divided credit — a key component of Total QBR. (Quick aside: Tom Brady, Carson Wentz and eight other quarterbacks produced more EPA this season themselves, including a down-weighting for garbage time, than the Saints did on Kamara’s touches. So no running back this year should be in the MVP conversation.) But we’re not there yet for running backs. We don’t have a way to separate the runners’ contribution from his blockers.

Which is certainly a bummer until we remember that all the traditional statistics that we use also fail to divide credit as well. No one’s apportioning a percentage of Gurley’s yards to Andrew Whitworth or any of Kamara’s touchdowns to the threat of Michael Thomas.

If the EPA race were closer, we’d have to consider all of that gray area, and this would be a much more difficult (imaginary) honor to vote for. But it’s not all that close. Even with the razor thin margin in the WPA race, the rookie so handily blew away his competition in terms of sheer production that it’s safe to assume that after dividing credit the result would be the same: Kamara was 2017’s most valuable running back.

Brian Burke and Hank Gargiulo contributed to this story.

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.

NFL

Doug Marrone says Jaguars must begin another culture change in 2018

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — One of the major reasons for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ turnaround from one of the league’s worst franchises to nearly reaching the Super Bowl was the culture change initiated by executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin and head coach Doug Marrone.

It started the moment Coughlin was hired in January, and then it built throughout organized team activities, minicamp and a physically and mentally exhausting training camp that was much tougher than what the veterans had experienced in previous seasons in Jacksonville.

Players credited those things for the accountability, discipline and chemistry that played a significant role in the Jaguars’ first division title since 1999 and first playoff appearance since 2007.

Doug Marrone and the Jaguars know they’ll need to bring their intensity to training camp if they hope to post a second straight successful season. Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire

All of those things, however, mean absolutely nothing right now. Marrone said he has to start all over when the offseason conditioning program begins in mid-April. Every team is different, and assuming the 2018 Jaguars will pick up exactly where the 2017 team left off in terms of the culture change would be irresponsible.

“People will say the culture has changed and all that stuff and now they have a foundation. I have seen and been a part of places where we have made mistakes before where we have taken that for granted that you have that,” Marrone said. “You can’t do that as a coach. For me, when we really start, it will be going back and building on those fundamentals, because the team fluctuates and changes.”

Marrone likened it to building a home. If the foundation is constructed properly, then the rest of the construction built upon that will be solid. If there are issues with the foundation, though, there eventually will be problems.

In other words, if Marrone and Coughlin don’t approach their second season the way they did their first, things might be great in August and September, but there could be issues by November and December — the two most critical months of the season.

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“If there are a lot of people that have come back and everyone has bought in, that foundation will go a little quicker,” Marrone said. “The worst thing that can happen is that we say we’re going to go ahead and all of a sudden you find out that there is a crack somewhere in that foundation. The rest of the work doesn’t matter.”

Defensive tackle Malik Jackson finished his second season with the Jaguars in 2017, so he was around for only one terrible season. There are players in that locker room, however, who until 2017 had experienced nothing but season after season of double-digit losses.

So going 10-6, beating Buffalo and Pittsburgh, reaching the AFC Championship Game and nearly beating the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium was a wonderful experience. However, it doesn’t automatically mean the Jaguars are now going to be an annual contender to reach the Super Bowl like the Patriots and Steelers.

Jackson knows what the team experienced in 2017 to get there, so he’s 100 percent onboard with starting from the bottom and rebuilding the chemistry, accountability and discipline.

“Bringing the leadership in here with Coach Marrone and Coach Coughlin, and just everybody working together to get this locker room together and letting everybody know that the old Jags from previous years are gone and this is a new team here under new management,” Jackson said. “We acted like it and we played like it and we’ve got to continue to do it.”

NFL

Eagles' Brandon Brooks brings winning battle with anxiety to Super-Bowl stage

MINNEAPOLIS — Philadelphia Eagles guard Brandon Brooks threw up everything he had in his stomach right before the NFC Championship Game against the Minnesota Vikings, a welcome indicator that, in his mind, everything was OK.

“As weird and as bad as that sounds, I felt cool, I felt good,” he said. “It’s what I needed, to be honest, because when I threw up it was like, ‘OK, it’s game day. It’s just like every other game. Nothing different.’ “

For most of his pro career, Brooks has started his Sunday mornings by vomiting. But on the day of the Vikings game, that familiar feeling didn’t come immediately. He has a pretty firm grasp on things now, but a deviation from the norm before the biggest game of his life was a touch unsettling for Brooks, who missed two games last season and four games in his career as the result of the debilitating effects of an anxiety condition that went long undiagnosed. On those days, he would wake up around 4 or 5 in the morning violently ill and remain in that state for a full 24 hours. Then, as suddenly as it came on, the illness would stop, and he’d be back to his old self.

The first game he missed as a member of the Eagles was on Monday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers last November. His mother, Dorothy Brooks, had flown in from Milwaukee to watch her son and was standing in the middle of a large, unfamiliar city when she received an unnerving message.

Brandon Brooks’ mom, Dorothy Brooks, had a nervous Sunday herself last season when she arrived to watch her son play and learned that his anxiety had landed him in the hospital. Photo courtesy of Dorothy Brooks

“I’ll never forget this: I was downtown Philly, not really aware of my surroundings, and I got this text saying he was in the hospital. Oh my gosh, was that ever a hopeless feeling,” she said. “I didn’t know where to go. I had no clue. When you do finally find him, and he’s sick like that and they just couldn’t stop it, they hooked him up to IVs so he wouldn’t dehydrate. That was an awful feeling for a parent.”

Brooks recovered and returned for the following game, only to miss the next one against the Washington Redskins after falling ill once again.

He was unable to play in two games while with the Houston Texans for the same reason. Tests were run, but no clear answers were discovered. He concluded that he just had ulcers and tried to deal with the issue on his own. It was only after the Green Bay game that Brooks — with the help of the Eagles’ doctors — got serious about discovering the root of the problem. Several days after the Redskins game, Brooks revealed the findings to a large media gathering at his locker after practice.

“What I mean by anxiety condition, not nervousness or fear of the game,” he explained. “I have like an obsession with the game. It’s an unhealthy obsession right now, and I’m working with team doctors and things to get everything straightened out and getting the help that I needed.”

He began taking proactive measures, including seeing a psychologist once a week. Brooks has not had a repeat episode since missing games last year.

The 2017 season has been the finest of his six-year career. The 28-year-old out of Miami (Ohio) has not yielded a single sack and surrendered only 17 pressures in 16 regular-season games, according to Pro Football Focus, en route to his first Pro Bowl bid.

“I knew the ability he had, I think he knew the ability he had, it was just a matter of him believing in himself and you see what he’s done,” said right tackle Lane Johnson, one of Brooks’ closest friends on the team. “A guy with that natural gift, the size [6-foot-5, 335 pounds] and the speed, there shouldn’t be anybody better than him. And I think he’s starting to believe that now, and that’s why he is where he’s at.”

A mixed reception among teammates

When he went public with his condition, Brooks witnessed a split reaction. On one side, there was a large wave of support from teammates like Johnson, Jason Peters, Chris Maragos, Kenjon Barner and Zach Ertz. With the issue now out in the open, others felt emboldened to step forward and reveal they had battled anxiety as well.

“Well, I had a big anxiety problem coming out of college,” tight end Trey Burton said. “Kind of similar to [Brooks], before games I felt like I would have already played the game physically. Things running through me, I’m anxious, I was cramping before games even started, things like that where my mind was racing and just being extremely, extremely anxious about a ton of stuff.”

Johnson dealt with anxiety while at Oklahoma as well as during his rookie year with the Eagles, feeling the pressure to perform right away as the fourth overall pick.

“We’re all human. We’re not monsters,” Johnson said. “I think I heard it at the combine: 50 percent of guys have dealt with anxiety, depression. It’s not foreign. It’s just something that’s not talked about. It’s a stigma where it’s seen as a weakness. When you bring it to light, a lot of people in this world have it.”

Asked what the NFL is doing to help with this problem, league spokesman Brian McCarthy pointed to the presence of Dwight Hollier, a former player and licensed counselor who, as the NFL’s vice president of wellness and clinical services, works directly with clubs and current and former players on psycho/social-related issues.

“We take a holistic approach to the health and safety of our players,” McCarthy said. “While plenty of attention is paid to the physical well-being of the players, we have programs at both the league and club level for the total wellness of these men. We make available resources to help provide assistance on a variety of issues. The care extends well beyond the playing field.”

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On the other end of the spectrum, Brooks was met by teammates who he said were less than understanding.

“You pull your hamstring, right? And you [treat it] to get it right. Same thing with mental illness,” Brooks said, “but for some people, they don’t view it the same thing as a physical injury. Some people did have my back, and some people didn’t. No hard feelings. You definitely forgive; you never forget, though.”

Added Barner: “Brooks isn’t a young guy. He understands how this game goes. But when you have people that you think are in your corner, but they’re really coming down on you and not really caring about you as a person, that can do some damage to some guys. If you don’t have anybody on the other side of things to build you up, it can really do some damage to you. You can feel like you’re on your own, and that’s a terrible place to be.”

Fortunately for Brooks, he has a large support system, from family to teammates to complete strangers. He has had people come up to him on the street and has received countless letters, cards and messages on social media from people who identify with what he is dealing with and have thanked him for being open about it.

The most meaningful interaction he has had was with a grade-school student during a visit to a school in Delaware. “He just had severe anxiety, sitting in the back of the auditorium. Super-shy, man, and I know what that’s like,” Brooks said. “I just went back there and talked to him and let him know it’s cool, I went through the same thing, no need to feel overwhelmed. I do sometimes as well, but there’s things in place and people in place to help you.”

Super Bowl-ready

Brooks has always stood out because of his size. His mom, Dorothy, remembers taking Brandon to one of his first doctor’s visits. He was already sitting up and the doctor checked his chart, looked down at Brandon and said, “How old is he again?”

He began playing football in grade school and quickly found a passion for the sport.

“He always told me, he said, ‘Dad, I want to be in the NFL, I want to have money, faith,’ ” said Brandon’s father, Robert Parker. “I said, ‘Well, nothing is stopping you if you can keep to your dreams, son.’ I am just so happy for him.”

His parents stressed education above all else, though, and continue to do so, calling the NFL just the icing on the cake. Brooks graduated from Miami with a degree in psychology and a minor in business. He has already started his pursuit of a master’s degree in finance and has found time for internships during the offseason, including for Morgan Stanley and the City of Philadelphia’s Department of Finance and Revenue.

Brooks was drafted in the third round by the Texans in 2012. The anxiety issues did not crop up until he reached the pro level, and they intensified when he inked a five-year, $40 million contract with the Eagles in free agency in 2016. His perfectionist tendencies were heightened in the pursuit of justifying the big-money deal he had just signed.

“He said if he didn’t make a play to perfection, he’d be like (deep sigh) and that would be inside him,” his father said. “He studied like a quarterback. He studied all the time because he wanted to do well, he wanted to help the team win.”

Brooks has since learned to loosen his grip and accept that there will be times when he fails. That shift in mindset has empowered him. He has learned to let go and, in turn, is having fun again.

That’s not to say that he still doesn’t get nerves, it’s just that he’s better equipped to handle them.

“My mindset is so much further than it was last season, as far as dealing with it,” he said. “Obviously, you’re going to have, not relapses, but situations where you feel it come on, and really how you handle that in that split second is going to tell you if you have a grasp on it or if you’re just holding it down for a little bit. There’s been situations where I feel the anxiety come on, but I know what to do, I know what it is, so I just don’t let it affect me the way it did last year.”

Brooks’ parents are due to arrive in Minneapolis soon for the Super Bowl, eager to celebrate their son’s biggest professional moment. There is no noticeable trepidation in them, or their son, about the anxiety getting the better of him on the game’s biggest stage. That familiar feeling will surely hit him, as it has for most games of his professional career, but it appears he has succeeded in wrestling away the control.

“He’s at peace now,” his father said. “He’s fine. He’s good.”

NFL

Marcus Mariota can be unleashed under new Titans OC Matt LaFleur

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The last time we saw Marcus Mariota on a national stage — on a cold January night in Foxborough, Mass. — he was admittedly frustrated and embarrassed. Mariota was terse and on the field he looked uncomfortable.

The Tennessee Titans have taken major steps over the past two and a half weeks to ensure that Mariota doesn’t feel like that to end a season ever again. Hiring Matt LaFleur as offensive coordinator might be the biggest move in the right direction and one that should bring excitement to the Titans and its fanbase.

LaFleur can unleash Mariota and help him become the quarterback that many across the NFL believe he still can be. LaFleur, a 38-year-old quarterback specialist who was picked by general manager Jon Robinson to interview for the Titans’ head coach job a couple of weeks ago, will pick from the branches of Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Mike Shanahan, Gary Kubiak and others to create his own offense for Mariota and the Titans.

Shortly after Mike Vrabel was announced as the fifth head coach in Titans history, I wrote that his offensive coordinator hire might define his tenure.

LaFleur is the man with the keys to Mariota, the Titans’ most important car. It’ll up to LaFleur to use him like a Ferrari and not a Jeep.

The LaFleur hire feels like it has Robinson’s hands all over it. Robinson spoke at the Senior Bowl about Mariota’s “very high ceiling” and a desire to get him aligned with an offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach who could utilize him like the playmaker he is.

The Titans hope the switch to Matt LaFleur at offensive coordinator will unleash Marcus Mariota’s playmaking abilities. Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Vrabel also spoke about his vision to get Mariota playing with more confidence. Innovation and offensive flexibility could be the key to that.

“I believe that players are more important than plays,” Vrabel said.

The 2018 offseason will be the most important of Mariota’s career. It should be focused on growth instead of rehab, while eliminating bad habits and learning a new system that will likely be built around his strengths.

That’s where LaFleur comes in. He’s a strong X’s-and-O’s guy who has gotten success from his starting quarterback in nearly every stop of his coaching career. Here’s a look at some of his success stories:

— Jared Goff made a gigantic Year 2 jump, increasing his completion percentage by 7.5 points, more than doubling his touchdown percentage and cutting his interception percentage by more than half from his rookie year. Sean McVay ran the Rams offense, but LaFleur was instrumental in Goff’s development. LaFleur was McVay’s right-hand man, helping with the game plan and being another set of eyes from the booth on game day.

— Matt Ryan had his best season as a pro with LaFleur as his quarterbacks coach in 2016, winning league MVP and making a Super Bowl appearance. Ryan took a step back in 2017 without LaFleur, turning in his lowest completion percentage and yardage total since 2011.

— Kirk Cousins was also a big fan of LaFleur’s when he was Washington’s QB coach during Cousins’ and Robert Griffin III’s first two seasons.

The biggest remaining question mark with LaFleur is how he will command an offensive room and his lack of experience as a play-caller. He’s a more reserved personality than Vrabel. This will be his first play-calling NFL gig, but he did call plays in the second half of two Rams’ preseason contests.

The Titans are expecting LaFleur to grow in those elements of the job as he uses his scheme knowledge to make the 23rd-ranked Titans offense more explosive.

In L.A., the Rams had a lot of success using play action to get Goff open windows to throw. Goff led the NFL with 1,372 yards off play action, more than 125 yards more than second-place Case Keenum. Goff was sixth in the NFL in play-action usage. They also maximized Todd Gurley in the running and receiving game, offsetting pressure sent toward Goff.

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This will likely be a big part of the Titans’ offensive recipe with Mariota under LaFleur.

“We’re not going to run it into eight or nine guys,” Vrabel said. “We’re not going to be silly. I believe in screens. I believe in play-action, things he does well.”

That may not have been a direct shot at the previous regime, but it felt like it was related to it. Mariota was one of the best QBs in the NFL off play-action and led the league with 11.1 yards per attempt off play action. He was 16th in play-action usage.

Play-action Mariota: 68.6-percent completion rate, 11.1 yards per attempt, nine total touchdowns, four interceptions.

Mariota not on play action: 60.1-percent completion rate, 5.98 yards per attempt, nine total touchdowns, 11 interceptions.

The Rams often ran an up-tempo offense, something that Mariota excels in. It would be wise for LaFleur to implement some of that, as well as the quarterback pocket movement and quick strike throws from Shanahan and Kubiak’s offenses.

Many of LaFleur’s coaching tree mentors ran a version of the zone running scheme, so it seems likely we’ll see more of that in Tennessee.

“We’re going to run the football. We’re going to run it from the quarterback being under center. We’re going to run it from the QB being in gun,” Vrabel said. “We’re going to give Marcus some easy access throws, RPOs [run-pass options] or run relief.”

Heading into Year 4, we’re still waiting to see what Mariota can become in Tennessee. The Titans believe he still has elite potential and can be the man to lift them to the Super Bowl. We’ll soon see if LaFleur has what it takes to get that out of him.

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