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NFL's Shadow MVPs: These elite players' absences were felt the most
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  • Kevin SeifertNFL Nation

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    • ESPN.com national NFL writer
    • ESPN.com NFC North reporter, 2008-2013
    • Covered Vikings for Minneapolis Star Tribune, 1999-2008

The NFL Most Valuable Player Award is presented to the best of the best — the guy who makes the most singular contribution to his team’s success. According to ESPN’s final MVP Poll, that player was New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

But what about the most valuable player who wasn’t on the field? The 2017 season was notable for its long list of injuries to elite players. What follows is an attempt to identify the top five players whose ailments most impacted their respective team’s fortunes. It’s based, in part, on statistical analysis of the teams’ performances with and without what we’ll call their “Shadow MVPs.”

Injury: Torn right ACL | Games played: 7

Even as a rookie, Watson’s impact on the Texans was dramatic and clear. The team was 3-3 in games he started and 1-11 in the others. And don’t let that 3-3 record fool you. Even in those three losses, Watson still led the Texans’ offense to an average of 30.5 points per game. (Their defense gave up 36, 42 and 41 points, respectively, in those losses.) Watson also threw 19 of the Texans’ 28 total touchdown passes — in less than half of their games.

After he was injured in a Week 9 practice, the Texans’ offense averaged 12.89 points per game the rest of the way, the lowest in the NFL.

Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone in Week 6 against the Vikings. Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports

Injury: Broken right collarbone | Games played: 7

The Packers collapsed without Rodgers, much like they did when he broke his left collarbone in 2013. He led them to a 4-1 start in the 2017 campaign, but they went 3-8 after the injury. (He returned for one subpar game, a Week 15 loss to the Carolina Panthers, before going back on injured reserve.) In those first five games, the Packers’ offense ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring (26.2 points per game) and first in passing yards per game (245). Green Bay dropped to 27th in points (16) and 29th in passing yards per game (176.5) after Rodgers was lost to injury.

With Rodgers, the Packers were a Super Bowl contender. Without him, they couldn’t sniff the playoffs.

Injury: Torn left ACL | Games played: 0

Replacing Tannehill with Jay Cutler (14 starts) and Matt Moore (two) dropped the Dolphins from an average offense in 2016 to one of the worst in 2017. That’s the biggest reason why their record flipped from 10-6 to 6-10. Their 2017 offense ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, as compared to 14th in 2016. How much of that could be attributed to the quarterback drop-off? Cutler and Moore’s combined QBR (38.0) reflected a similar slide; it ranked 28th in the NFL, a year after Tannehill (54.2) ranked 16th. The Dolphins’ scoring fell 15 percent, and with Cutler and Moore at quarterback, they ranked 30th in turnovers (29). (They ranked 17th with Tannehill in 2016.)

No one would suggest that Tannehill is a top-end quarterback like Rodgers (or even Watson in his short stretch). Tannehill landed in Tier 3 of Mike Sando’s 2017 QB Tiers. But his injury, and the quality of his replacements, moved the Dolphins squarely out of the playoff mix.

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Injury: Ruptured left Achilles tendon | Games played: 1

The Chiefs’ defense dropped off notably in 2017, capped off by allowing 19 unanswered points in their wild-card loss to the Tennessee Titans. Kansas City finished the regular season ranked 30th in defensive DVOA, a 16-spot drop from 2016. Was it all due to Berry’s injury, which came in Week 1? It’s difficult to overestimate the loss of an All-Pro safety in today’s game. Without Berry’s ball hawking, the Chiefs created seven fewer turnovers in 2017, and their tackling efficiency fell on passing plays. They ranked 23rd in yards after first contact on receptions (1.6), down from 15th in 2016 (1.37).

Meanwhile, the impact of Berry’s run support could be traced through the slip in Kansas City’s rush defense. The Chiefs allowed an NFL-high 4.7 yards per carry, a year after ranking 17th (4.24).

Injury: Posterior right labrum tear | Games played: 0

This analysis must take into account multiple seasons. Luck’s shoulder troubles began in Week 3 of the 2015 season. What follows is a broader way to document Luck’s value to the Colts, traced through their record and Luck’s performance. Relatively healthy during the 2012-14 seasons, Luck led the Colts to a 33-15 regular-season record and three consecutive playoff appearances. Over that three-year period, Luck had the NFL’s ninth-best QBR (63.9). In 2015-16, Luck mostly stayed on the field but was limited by the shoulder and other ailments. The Colts went 8-8 in both seasons, as Luck’s QBR dropped to 56.1 (16th in the NFL). And without him at all in 2017, Indianapolis crashed to 4-12 as its quarterbacks ranked 29th in the NFL (38.0).

The Colts’ management didn’t appreciate insinuations that the team’s success was largely the result of making the no-brainer decision to draft Luck in 2012, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers.

NFL

Brady cuts off interview over barb at daughter

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady cut short his weekly interview Monday morning on sports radio WEEI, saying he was disappointed that one of the station’s hosts previously made disparaging remarks about his 5-year-old daughter when discussing the “Tom vs. Time” documentary.

“I’ve tried to come on this show for many years and showed you guys a lot of respect,” Brady said. “I’ve always tried and come on and do a good job for you guys. It’s very disappointing when you hear [the comments about my daughter], certainly. My daughter, or any child, certainly don’t deserve that.”

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Brady added that he would evaluate if he will appear on the station again.

“I really don’t have much to say this morning. Maybe I’ll speak with you guys some other time,” he said, before ending the interview.

Brady, whose family is a notable part of the “Tom vs. Time” documentary, appears on the “Kirk & Callahan Show” each week. The host who made a disparaging remark about his daughter, Alex Reimer, said it on a different show last week.

Reimer, who is in his mid-20s and sometimes appears on the “Kirk & Callahan Show,” called Brady’s daughter “an annoying little pissant.”

Kirk Minihane, one of the hosts of the show, said on the air Monday that Reimer had been suspended for the entire Super Bowl week.

Last week, WEEI’s parent company Entercom and the Patriots announced a multiyear partnership extension. In making the announcement, Entercom noted “the agreement includes broadcasting rights of ‘Patriots Monday’ and ‘Patriots Friday,’ headlined by five-time Super Bowl champion and four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady.”

NFL

Draymond, Le'Veon discuss Mich. St. aftermath

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green spoke on the sexual assault scandal that has enveloped his alma mater, Michigan State, saying he wishes “the victims well on the road to recovery.”

“As a die-hard Spartan fan, as an alumnus, as a supporter, I wish those who were affected, touched by it, broken by it, shaken, whatever it did to you, I wish them well in their recovery. Because it touches everybody in a different way,” Green said after the Warriors’ win over the Boston Celtics Saturday night. “Whether you’re a supporter and it kills your pride or whether you’re a victim and you’re going through the things that you’re going through.”

Green played at Michigan State under coach Tom Izzo from 2008-12. Izzo and Spartans football coach Mark Dantonio both said Friday night that they have no plans to step away from their positions in the wake of an ESPN report about a pervasive culture of sexual assault on campus and within their two programs.

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Outside the Lines published a report on Friday about the “pattern of widespread denial, inaction and information suppression” when it comes to addressing sexual assaults on Michigan State’s campus and within its athletic department. Interviews and public records obtained by Outside the Lines show that at least 16 members of the Spartans football team have been accused of sexual assault or violence against women.

The report detailed an uncharged rape accusation against two former Michigan State basketball players and a pair of charges related to violence against women involving former undergraduate assistant coach Travis Walton.

On Friday, Walton was placed on administrative leave from his duties as assistant coach of the LA Clippers’ G League affiliate. One of the basketball players accused of rape in the OTL report, Adreian Payne, was waived by the Orlando Magic’s G League affiliate in Lakeland, Florida.

“I offer my support to coach Dantonio and coach Izzo in their efforts to rebuild and to help the victims in any way that they can,” Green said. “They say the true test of a man is what he does in a time of adversity. I know those two guys will stand up and do whatever they can to help. I look forward to helping in any way I can. Those affected, supporters, most importantly, the victims, any way I can help, I look forward to that.”

At Pro Bowl practice on Saturday, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell — another former Michigan State athlete — said he “felt bad for everything that happened to all the women,” adding that both D’Antonio and Izzo “do everything the right way.”

“I’m obviously hoping for a turnaround. I mean, it’s kind of a big target on our back right now. I just kinda wanna be a supporter, the best that I can,” Bell said. “And I want Michigan State to be the top of the class — basketball, football, all that, all athletics — make things go the right way. This can kinda go down the line, and people kinda forget about it because we did a lot of positive things more so than negative things coming out of the university.”

The scandal’s aftermath has seen the resignation of university athletic director Mark Hollis and president Lou Ann Simon this past week.

NFL

Chris Long called Eagles in free agency, not the other way around

PHILADELPHIA — Chris Long took free agency and turned it upside down the same way he often does opposing quarterbacks. Rather than wait for a call from an NFL team last year, he pinpointed where he wanted to go and made sure it happened.

The defensive end revealed this week how the process went down just months after he won a ring with the team the Philadelphia Eagles are playing next Sunday in Super Bowl LII, the New England Patriots.

Incapable of sitting and waiting for things to unfold, Long proactively cold-called Eagles exec Howie Roseman. He wanted to play in Philadelphia after a conversation with former Eagle and current Los Angeles Ram Connor Barwin.

“That is true,” Long said. “Where I was last year there were a bunch of people who were like, ‘You’re crazy, you’re leaving the Patriots and you suck. You’re old, you’re washed up.’

“I’m like, ‘Man I need to get on a team.’ … I was antsy to get on a team and I saw the team I wanted to be on. It was real simple for me.”

It was an unorthodox free-agency process, needing both parties to accept unusual roles.

It rarely works this way.

“For the record, Howie could have easily — I’m not trying to take the credit away from Howie — he could’ve been like, ‘Nah, dude, you’re too old. We looked at your tape last year,’” the 32-year-old Long said. “He was like, ‘Yeah, awesome. You’ll be great.’ And we just made it work from there.”

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It has paid off for Long and the Eagles. He has been an invaluable addition in the locker room and on the field, where he provides depth for a defensive line whose never-ending waves overwhelm most opposing offensive lines.

Long had five sacks and four forced fumbles this season. He made two impactful plays in Sunday’s NFC championship rout of the Minnesota Vikings.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick conceded this week that Long probably made the right move in leaving New England, even though his one season there ended with his first ring.

“Chris has a lot of good skills, but his overall skill set and experience is definitely more in the system that he’s in than it was in our system,” Belichick said, noting that the Eagles’ 4-3 defense is similar to what Long had played in the first eight seasons of his career with the Rams.

“He did a great job for us. There was no better teammate or guy that tried to embrace the program than Chris, but in the end he probably has a better fit there for his skills and for this point in his career than maybe we had for him. I understand that. He probably made a good decision.”

The veteran has been a good fit for Philadelphia. Philadelphia has been a good fit for him in replacing Barwin, a close friend, on the roster. Barwin provided an assist in the signing.

“Exactly. I told him the Eagles are the real deal. Carson [Wentz] is the real deal. I told him that for me I really enjoyed playing in that city and in the NFC East. To me it’s the best division in the NFL,” Barwin told ESPN earlier this week by telephone. “People really care in Philadelphia. They care about their city. It’s a really good match for Chris. They care about their people. They care about their city and, of course, they really care about football.”

Long explained that what he likes about Philadelphia the most is the place itself. He lives just outside the city and has been deeply involved in events and programs since arriving.

It’s everything he was hoping it would be and more.

“Once Connor left, I called Connor and was like, ‘What’s it like there?’ He’s like, ‘It’s awesome. You’re going to love it. You’re going to be a great fit,’” said Long, who has donated his 2017 salary to scholarships for students in his hometown of Charlottesville, Virginia, and to launch his Pledge 10 for Tomorrow campaign. “We traded notes on L.A. and Philly. I had to get ahold of somebody and tell ‘em I’m not dead, I want to keep playing and I still got a lot left in the tank.

“Of course, you tell somebody that, it’s one thing to tell them. You have to play it out.”

And played out it has, perhaps better than either side could have imagined. Long and running back LeGarrette Blount have the chance to join Charles Haley and Deion Sanders as the only players to win back-to-back Super Bowls with different teams.

And Long deserves some of the credit for initiating the action.

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