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Top projected free agents for 2018
Oct 11, 2017

  • Kevin SeifertNFL Nation

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    • ESPN.com national NFL writer
    • ESPN.com NFC North reporter, 2008-2013
    • Covered Vikings for Minneapolis Star Tribune, 1999-2008

You know how it goes: The best NFL players almost never make it to free agency. It’s rare for even an average quarterback to get there.

We could see exceptions to both rules in the spring of 2018, based on a relatively monster list of players whose contracts are set to expire. Some of them could sign contract extensions during the season or before the market opens with their current teams. Others might receive the franchise tag, and a few could retire.

But a fella can dream, can’t he? For the moment, at least, let’s consider the futures of 20 pending free agents, ranked roughly in order of intrigue:

Cousins is playing under the franchise tag for the second consecutive season. There is unlikely to be a third, given the enormous cost of nearly $34 million in cash and cap space. Conventional wisdom suggests that Cousins, having come this far, will test free agency to find out his true market. That deal, from the Redskins or someone else, should break NFL records.

After turning down a long-term offer this summer, Bell is playing on a $12.1 million franchise tag. It would cost the Steelers around $15 million to franchise him again in 2018. Would they really pay him so much? That figure is nearly twice the highest average salary for a running back other than Bell (Devonta Freeman, $8.25 million). A word to the wise: Free agency is often a disappointment for veteran running backs. By next spring, Bell will have five NFL seasons’ worth of wear and tear on his body.

The Patriots deflected multiple trade offers last spring and held on to Garoppolo, whose preseason and brief regular-season outings suggest he is a genuine heir apparent to Tom Brady. But there is no indication that Brady plans to retire anytime soon. He will turn 41 next summer. After four years as a backup, Garoppolo will want to play somewhere in 2018. The Patriots could use the franchise tag, even though it would cost about $22 million, to buy one more year of insurance.

Brees remains the best thing about a franchise that is 23-29 the past four seasons. It’s hard to imagine the Saints moving on without him, absent his own decision to retire. But they’ll still have to pay big for a quarterback who will be 39 when the 2018 season starts. Brees’ current deal averages $24.25 million per season. Would he settle for less?

As he showed in Week 1, Bradford can be quite effective when healthy and surrounded by a balanced set of weapons. But his knees continue to hold back sustained success, and the Week 5 debacle at Soldier Field made clear he is still injured. Unless he makes a quicker-than-expected recovery and finishes the season strong, he’ll enter the market as damaged goods. On the plus side, he will have earned nearly $115 million by the time he turns 30.

Graham has never matched the elite production he gave the Saints, an unsurprising development considering the difference in schemes. After 51 touchdown receptions from 2010-14 for the Saints, he has managed nine in 2¼ seasons with the Seahawks. He’ll turn 31 in November and would need to target a pass-first offense in free agency in order to maximize his skills.

The Rams have used the franchise tag on Johnson in consecutive years, guaranteeing him $30.7 million for 2016-17. Many consider that a generous sum for a cornerback who has never made a Pro Bowl or All-Pro team. He opened this season with a pick-six in the Rams’ blowout of the Indianapolis Colts, but you would figure his time under the tag will come to an end. He’ll be 28 by the start of free agency, young enough to generate strong value from a cornerback-deficient team.

In a season in which the Patriots’ defense has been a disappointment in general, Malcolm Butler has been somewhat reliable. Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports

The subject of trade rumors this past offseason, Butler notably did not receive a contract extension despite developing into the Patriots’ most reliable cover man in recent seasons. The Patriots’ decision to sign free agent Stephon Gilmore instead in the spring suggested they might have decided to let Butler depart via free agency. Whatever his imperfections, the dearth of competent and available corners will work in his favor.

Bridgewater’s future is as murky as that of any player on this list. He is 13 months past a catastrophic knee injury that threatened his career and one week away from being eligible to resume practicing. Will he be ready? No one knows for sure. If he is ready, will Bradford keep him on the bench? Bridgewater’s contract is set to expire after this season, but the Vikings could freeze — or “toll” — his contract if he does not play this season, making him ineligible for free agency. Stay tuned.

The Lions picked up their fifth-year option on Ansah but haven’t signed him to a long-term deal. At this point, Ansah would be smart to hit the market, where pass-rushers are almost always rewarded. The Lions could make a late play to re-sign him. But now that quarterback Matthew Stafford’s contract extension is complete, they also could use their 2018 franchise tag on Ansah. After a disappointing two-sack performance in 2016, Ansah’s four sacks this season put him closer to the pace that pushed him to 14.5 sacks in 2015.

It’s fair to wonder if Fitzgerald is playing his final season. His contract expires in the spring, and he will turn 35 this summer. His early-season production — he’s on pace for a third consecutive 1,000-yard season — suggests that he could be in play for 2018 if he wants to be. But he already is one of the most well-compensated receivers — and, really, non-quarterbacks — in NFL history. Through a series of unique cap circumstances, Fitzgerald’s contracts will have paid him more than $150 million by the end of this season, according to Spotrac tracking.

Pryor bet on himself last spring, turning down a multiyear offer from the Browns to sign a one-year deal worth $6 million with the Redskins. With a far more accomplished quarterback in Cousins, the thinking went, Pryor could dramatically raise his value for 2018. That effort is off to a slow start, however, with 13 receptions for 186 yards and one touchdown in four games.

Like Pryor, Jeffery took a one-year deal to reset his market value for 2018. He’s earning $9.5 million from the Eagles with a chance to cash in next spring. But as with Pryor, the numbers have come slowly for Jeffery. He has 20 receptions for 246 yards and two scores in the Eagles’ first five games.

Despite suiting up for a team with one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, Sammy Watkins has done little to buttress his career totals this season. Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Rejected by the Buffalo Bills’ new regime and shipped to Los Angeles this summer, Watkins hasn’t really turned over his underachieving résumé. The No. 4 overall pick of the 2014 draft has 14 receptions in five games for the Rams’ high-flying offense, and he recently implied dissatisfaction via his Twitter account. But with a supportive coaching staff and creative scheme, Watkins still has a chance to make himself into a high-level free-agent commodity.

The NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2013 and a Pro Bowl selection in 2014, Richardson played his way off the New York Jets — and into a much better situation from all angles. Playing amid the Seahawks’ cast of Pro Bowlers should bring out the best in him and give him an optimal chance to enhance his value heading into free agency.

Although he doesn’t get as much national coverage as some of the NFL’s other elite receivers, Landry has caught more passes since the start of the 2014 season (318) than all but three pass-catchers. Although it’s possible that the Dolphins could sign him to an extension, he might be better advised to wait until he knows the team’s long-term quarterback plan.

Nate Solder, LT, New England Patriots

With the exception of an injury-shortened 2015 season, Solder has been the Patriots’ left tackle for seven years. Although no one would suggest that he is among the league’s elite players at the position, the desperate dearth of competent NFL linemen suggests he would enjoy a good market for his services. But we will see if Solder becomes the latest Patriots veteran to accept a discount to remain with the franchise.

An imposing and versatile target when healthy, Eifert is once again struggling to get on the field. A back injury has limited him to four receptions in two games this season after he played in only eight games in 2016 and one in 2014. But his 13-touchdown performance in 15 games during the 2015 season will be alluring for teams seeking playmakers.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Teams won’t often see value in a running back who is approaching his 35th birthday, and for all we know, Gore will retire after this season. But he has proved remarkably durable, having not missed a game in seven seasons. His production has waned — he last averaged 4.0 or more yards per carry in 2014 — but he is too special to rule out as a free-agent possibility in 2018.

Davis has fallen off a bit from the Pro Bowl level he demonstrated in 2014 and 2015, and a recent youth movement in the Colts’ defensive backfield suggests he could be looking for a new team this spring. He turns 30 in May but will have a better résumé than most of the corners available and could help a coverage-deficient team.

NFL

Carson Wentz figures out blitz, powers Eagles to 5-1
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ESPN Eagles reporter Tim McManus recaps the team’s 28-23 win over the Panthers and how Philadelphia is exceeding expectations with a 5-1 start.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Fresh off a punishing game in which he was sacked three times and absorbed eight quarterback hits, Carson Wentz was asked how he felt physically during his postgame news conference.

“I’m feeling great. We’re 5-1, baby,” he responded.

But the Philadelphia Eagles’ 28-23 win over the Carolina Panthers was hard-earned. They knew they had their hands full against a Panthers defense that entered the game ranked third in the NFL in sacks (17), especially without the services of right tackle Lane Johnson, still in concussion protocol. Johnson’s replacement, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, gave up a sack to Julius Peppers right out of the chute. All three sacks came off the right side of the Eagles’ line, along with seven of the 13 pressures.

The degree of difficulty was ratcheted up by the fact that Carolina used exotic looks it had not shown on tape. And did they ever bring the heat. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Panthers sent the blitz 24 times in the game — the most by any team this season.

“It’s a tremendous testament to those players in that locker room,” Eagles coach Doug Pederson said. “I told them tonight after the game I haven’t been part of a team that has battled through so much injury and adversity to be in the first month of the season, month and a half of the season, the resiliency of the football team started to show last year at the end of the year. They’re learning from last year. They’re learning how to finish games and just the overall consistency from the leaders leading this football team. They are sacrificing each other- themselves for the football team. It’s a fun thing to watch.”

After struggling to cope with the Panthers’ pressure early on, Carson Wentz went 5-of-6 for 86 yards and a TD against the blitz on the Eagles’ last four drives. Bob Donnan/USA Today Sports

Wentz went just 3-of-15 for 35 yards with two sacks against the blitz on his first nine drives. Then he figured it out, going 5-of-6 for 86 yards with a TD and no takedowns on the final four series. And, despite being popped and twisted along the way, he tossed three touchdowns with no interceptions in a performance that earned further respect from his teammates.

“You want to look at a game and talk about character? That freakin’ showed it right there,” said tight end Zach Ertz, who caught two of those touchdowns to continue his red-hot start to the season. “I mean, the guy is getting smacked early and often in the beginning of the game. He never wavered, his confidence never wavered, his composure never wavered. I think that just speaks volumes about how we feel about him and how he feels about us.”

The 22nd game of Wentz’s NFL career proved to be one of the most challenging. The whole scene contrasted so sharply from last week’s 34-7 trouncing of the Arizona Cardinals, where everything this Eagles team did seemed so effortless. This one was more like a cage match, with just about every yard coming at a cost. Difficult as it proved to be, the win revealed how much this quarterback and team have grown over the course of the last year-plus. It is an experience that should serve them well as they try to shift from a promising upstart team to playoff contenders.

“We stayed together the whole game. They did some good things defensively, some different pressure looks that we haven’t seen. That’s tough on a short week,” Wentz said. “But we found a way to win a close ballgame. That’s ultimately what we struggled with last year: winning on the road and winning close ballgames. And we’ve done that successfully in these first six games.

“Having a year together with this team, under Coach [Doug Pederson], myself, everything, we’re just built differently. We have a different character makeup in that locker room, and we just have a bunch of guys that believe that no matter the situation we can find a way to win a ballgame.

“It feels great,” Wentz added. “That was hard fought win, on the road, on a short week, on prime-time TV. So to come out of it 5-1 and to know that we’re at home the next couple of weeks, that’s big for us.”

NFL

Garrett: Jones' talk with Cowboys out of 'love'

FRISCO, Texas — While Jerry Jones told Dallas Cowboys players in a meeting Wednesday that they must stand for the national anthem to show respect for the flag, coach Jason Garrett said the intention of the session came from the owner’s “love, admiration and respect for the players.”

After telling reporters Sunday that a player would be benched if he did not stand for the anthem, Jones again made that point to the Cowboys’ players Wednesday, adding context as to why it is important they stand.

In addition to Jones’ personal beliefs, a source said Jones mentioned television ratings and sponsorships that ultimately affect the players as well. According to Garrett, Jones wanted to provide the players, “some avenues to help make the impact of the issues that we’re most concerned about.”

“He’s very sensitive to some of the issues, as we all are, that the players are talking about,” Garrett said. “We all want to make an impact, and he’s someone that can help the players do that. He wanted to make sure they knew that.”

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Dak Prescott said Wednesday night that the meeting went well.

“I mean we ironed out everything that we needed at this time,” Prescott said.

Prior to their Sept. 25 game at the Arizona Cardinals, the Cowboys followed Jones’ lead in locking arms during pre-game introductions, taking a knee before the anthem and then standing arm in arm during the anthem.

In two games since, the Cowboys have stood for the anthem like they always have. Defensive linemen Damontre Moore and David Irving raised their fists at the end of the anthem prior to the Green Bay game. Garrett spoke to both players Monday and said neither would be disciplined.

Speaking on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas on Tuesday, Jones said the players could still show a sign of protest as long as it was before the anthem.

“There’s no question that it’s a complex issue, and that’s why it continues to be in the forefront in a lot of ways,” Garrett said. “I think the biggest thing that we’ve tried to emphasize to our players is, the goal is to make an impact in the community. The goal is to make an impact on what the issues are. I think it’s important to identify the issues and identify the way you can make an impact. I think that was part of Mr. Jones’ message yesterday.”

The Cowboys are holding their final practice of the bye week and will return to The Star next Tuesday. Garrett said the timing of the bye allowed the Cowboys more time to discuss the issue, but when the team returns to practice, the focus needs to be on football.

“I think like a lot of things in life, a lot of people say, ‘just focus on football,'” Garrett said. “But as we all know in our lives, there’s a lot of other things going on in our lives. So, sometimes as a player, a coach, as a football team, you have to focus on this particular thing to address it, to solve it, to move on, so you can get back to the business of football. And that happens with our players and our coaches each and every day — situations they have with their families, whether they’re health concerns or some of the off-field issues that we all deal with in our lives.

“Sometimes you have to focus on those things so you can get back to the business of focusing on football. I think our team’s done a really good job on that.”

NFL

NFL Insiders predict: Week 6 upsets, flops, declining vet QBs, more

Our NFL Insiders predict Week 6’s biggest upsets and fantasy flops and sleepers. Plus: Should Pittsburgh fans be worried about Ben Roethlisberger? Are the Packers the best one-loss team?

What’s your top upset pick for Week 6?

Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Rams over Jaguars. That Jacksonville secondary is nasty. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye will challenge every throw from Jared Goff; they’re physical cornerbacks with ball skills. However, can the Rams lean on a high-volume day from Todd Gurley and take some calculated shots up the seam versus the Jags’ Cover 3 shell? The team that controls the tempo wins this one. And I’ll go with the Rams to hold on for a victory in a low-scoring affair.

Dan Graziano, NFL writer: Bears over Ravens. Look, this is a tough week to pick an upset. There aren’t really any that I like, except for a couple that I think would be too close to count here. (Rams in Jacksonville, maybe, or Lions in New Orleans, if Matthew Stafford is healthy.) So give me some Mitchell Trubisky on the road in Baltimore. I just don’t think the Ravens’ offense is capable of scoring consistently week to week. I think the Bears have been close in some tough losses, and they have a win over the Steelers, who dominated the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 4. It’s a flier, but this is the week for a flier. Gimme da Bears.

Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: Lions over Saints. Detroit is a surprising No. 8 in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings through five weeks, and New Orleans is a surprising No. 9. But compared to last season and the talent level on the roster, the Detroit offense is underperforming a little bit and the New Orleans defense is overperforming. It’s certainly easy to imagine a scenario where Matthew Stafford engineers another fourth-quarter comeback, even on the road, against the holes in the Saints’ defense.

Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Steelers over Chiefs. The Steelers intrigue me as a capable team that has underperformed and now must refocus to win on the road against a 5-0 Chiefs team. Injuries to Travis Kelce and Justin Houston are factoring into my thinking that Pittsburgh might be able to win a hard-fought game. Of course, the Chiefs could just as easily win by two touchdowns.

Field Yates, NFL Insider: Chargers over Raiders. There are some games that feel just too imbalanced to project an upset — i.e. the Browns over the Texans — so let’s stick with this one, noting a caveat: I believe there is a legitimate shot that Derek Carr plays in Week 6, and I also believe the Chargers can get the job done in an upset. Los Angeles’ defensive line is one of the most dominant in the NFL. The Raiders have an established, veteran offensive line but the early-season struggles are apparent. They’ve allowed 12 sacks through five games after a league-low 18 last season, and are 23rd in rushing yards per game after finishing sixth in the same category last year. Look for L.A. to make it two straight road wins.

Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high five interceptions against the Jaguars last week. Philip G. Pavely/USA TODAY Sports

Bowen: Roethlisberger, because the Steelers’ offense looks limited through five weeks. Antonio Brown has only one touchdown catch, we are still waiting for that breakout game from Martavis Bryant, and Roethlisberger is struggling to throw the deep ball. The quarterback completed 47 percent of his passes on throws of 15 or more yards down the field with 16 touchdowns in 2016. This year? He’s completing just 34 percent of his passes on such throws with five interceptions and zero touchdowns. That’s a real concern.

Graziano: Roethlisberger, because his team is the one of which the most was expected. There seem to be some problems bubbling up behind the scenes in Pittsburgh that have a lot to do with him, his relationships with his wideouts, his choices within the game plan, etc. The Steelers have no excuse not to run away with an otherwise weak AFC North, but the performance by Roethlisberger and the offense early in the season has raised legitimate questions about whether they will.

Schatz: Roethlisberger is surrounded by the most talent, which is why there are more questions about his struggles than the others. He has a solid offensive line, and maybe the best wide receiver and best (healthy) running back in the game. Palmer’s and Manning’s performances are less concerning only because they are less surprising; both look very similar to a year ago. Rivers is fine, still easily above average according to Football Outsiders metrics.

Sando: I don’t find any of their performances all that worrisome. Manning, Rivers and Palmer need more support. We know who they are, and who they’re not. Roethlisberger is the best of the bunch and needs to play better. Presumably, he will.

Yates: It’s Roethlisberger, given his supporting cast. The offensive line is a tenured and cohesive group that has standout players, his receivers are highlighted by arguably the best in the game with Brown and Le’Veon Bell is a game-changer. It’s difficult to pinpoint why Roethlisberger’s most recent struggles (six interceptions in his past two games and just one touchdown) have occurred. Pittsburgh has a tough test to get on track as it faces the league’s best team, Kansas City, this week.

Who’s your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?

Bowen: Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa, RBs, Giants. Given the number of injuries to the Giants wide receiver corps, fantasy managers would expect New York to run the football Sunday night. But there has been very little daylight for running backs this season against the Broncos. Denver leads the NFL, giving up an average of just 14.4 fantasy points per game to opposing backs.

Graziano: Lamar Miller, RB, Texans. The Browns are the second-best run defense in the league in yards per attempt per rush, allowing only 2.9. (the Broncos are the best at 2.4) There’s always a risk that a running back could rack up points against the Browns in the second half because he’ll probably be playing with a lead, but the Browns’ defensive front is actually something of a relatively quiet strength of their team.

Schatz: Lamar Miller, RB, Texans. You might think it’s easy to rack up rushing totals against Cleveland because the Browns are always losing and their opponents are always killing the clock. But the Browns are actually third in run defense DVOA (compared to 31st in pass defense) and allow fewer fantasy points to running backs than the average defense this season.

Sando: Jared Goff, QB, Rams. Goff was my choice in Week 5 and I’ll stick with him heading into a road matchup with the Jaguars. His overall trajectory is up, but these are a couple of difficult matchups for him following a fast start.

Yates: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers. By no means am I benching him, but let’s not overlook the matchup Evans draws this week against Arizona. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has been remarkable, holding primary duties in slowing down Marvin Jones Jr., T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Pierre Garcon and Alshon Jeffery to a combined total of 13 catches, 135 yards and two touchdowns in five games this season. Evans will have his hands full in Week 6.

The Packers’ only loss so far this season was on the road in Atlanta. AP Photo/Mike Roemer

Rank these one-loss teams: Panthers, Eagles, Packers, Broncos and Falcons

Bowen: 1. Packers; 2. Panthers; 3. Falcons; 4. Broncos; 5. Eagles. Aaron Rodgers can take over the game at any moment.

Graziano: 1. Panthers; 2. Broncos; 3. Packers; 4. Falcons; 5. Eagles. I love what Carolina is doing on offense with personnel groupings and its ability to change the game plan relative to the opponent and situation. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t put up numbers yet, but you can see the way he affects a defense’s attention and allows the Panthers to mix things up. They’re also fearsome on defense.

Schatz: 1. Packers; 2. Eagles; 3. Falcons; 4. Panthers; 5. Broncos. The Packers looked like the best of these teams going into the season, and only the Eagles have been better if we look only at 2017 data.

Sando: 1. Packers; 2. Falcons; 3. Broncos; 4. Panthers; 5. Eagles. Green Bay has the NFL’s best quarterback, possibly by a wide margin. I don’t see huge gaps between the others.

Yates: 1. Packers; 2. Broncos; 3. Panthers; 4. Eagles; 5. Falcons. The brilliance of Rodgers needs no explanation, with the balance of the offense through the running game making this Green Bay offense arguably the league’s best.

Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 6.

Bowen: Elijah McGuire, RB, Jets. With Bilal Powell banged up and Matt Forte still working through an injury, McGuire is a solid play this week. The Jets running back is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on a limited workload (34 carries), but I like the matchup against a Patriots defense that is giving up an average of 30.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backs (the worst in the NFL).

Graziano: Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona. The Buccaneers have had a little bit of a problem with running backs who catch the ball. New England’s James White had seven catches for 57 yards last week. Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook caught five passes for 72 yards against Tampa Bay. Chicago’s Tarik Cohen had eight for 55. If you’re in a PPR league and you’re having bye week issues, you might be able to steal some cheap points with Ellington even though Arizona can’t run the ball.

Schatz: George Kittle, TE, 49ers. So far, the one position that’s getting plenty of receptions against the Washington defense is tight end. Fifth-round rookie Kittle is on the rise in San Francisco. That seems like a great combination to me.

Sando: Will Fuller V, WR, Texans. Fuller gets a crack at the Browns’ secondary. That’s a favorable matchup anyway, especially with coach Bill O’Brien seeming to keep the accelerator pressed whether Houston is leading or trailing.

Yates: Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons. If Mohamed Sanu sits this week, I’d roll the dice on Gabriel. The Falcons return from their bye to face a Miami team that has yet to track down an interception this season. Gabriel has the kind of speed that can make him a factor with just one play; he has a shot at a half-dozen targets if Sanu sits and is on the flex radar in a deeper league.

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