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NFL

Russell Wilson, Seahawks must find third-down solutions in 2017

9:55 AM ET

  • Sheil KapadiaESPN Writer

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    • Covered the Philadelphia Eagles for Philadelphia Magazine and Philly.com from 2008 to 2015.
    • Covered the Baltimore Ravens and the NFL for BaltimoreSun.com from 2006 to 2008.

Oftentimes when Seattle Seahawks coaches and players discuss the state of the offense, third-down efficiency becomes the focus.

Last season, the Seahawks struggled to extend drives, and the third-down issues factored significantly into the offensive inconsistencies. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks finished 20th in third-down efficiency in 2016 after finishing first the previous year.

Russell Wilson was 13th in YPA and 15th in yards per dropback last season. Just 38.5 percent of his third-down pass attempts (17th) netted first downs. In 2015, that number was 50.4 percent (third).

Russell Wilson on third down
Comp. pct. YPA Yds/drop back Sack pct. Pressure pct.
2015 67.20 9.02 7.13 9.10 33.50
2016 56.10 7.38 6.17 7.60 41.50

Pass protection was obviously an issue. In 2016, Wilson was pressured on 41.5 percent of his dropbacks (second-most). In 2015, it was 33.5 percent (17th). Wilson’s limited mobility, combined with bad offensive line play, produced poor results on third-and-long, specifically.

In 2015, the Seahawks ranked first in DVOA on third-and-long (7 yards or more). Last season, they dropped down to 18th.

Of course, short yardage was actually worse. The Seahawks ranked 25th in DVOA on third-and-short (3 yards or fewer), reflecting in part their inability to run the ball effectively.

The passing numbers by target are worth zeroing in on:

Catches Targets Catch pct. Targets/route 1st downs/target
Jimmy Graham 15 24 62.50 17.90 50.00
Tyler Lockett 11 23 47.80 17.70 30.40
Doug Baldwin 22 29 75.90 17.00 62.10
Jermaine Kearse 5 19 26.30 12.30 26.30

Not surprisingly, Doug Baldwin was the Seahawks’ most attractive option on third down. Wilson netted a first down 62.1 percent of the time when targeting Baldwin. With Jimmy Graham, the number was also good (50 percent).

Tyler Lockett was only at 30.4 percent. Lockett played through multiple injuries in his second season. As a rookie, he led Seahawks receivers by catching 77.3 percent of his third-down targets, and 68.2 percent of his targets resulted in first downs.

Meanwhile, Jermaine Kearse’s third-down numbers were among the worst in the league this season. Among 144 qualifying players, Kearse had the worst catch rate (26.3 percent) in the NFL on third down. Wilson targeted Kearse less (on 12.3 percent of his routes) on third down than the other players, and the pair struggled to connect all season long. It’s worth noting that in the previous four years, Kearse caught 56.3 percent of his third-down targets and converted 45.8 percent of his targets into first downs. The Seahawks have to hope he can bounce back in 2017.

Seattle has several areas to hone in on to improve its third-down efficiency next season. The offensive line has to be better — both in protection and on short-yardage runs. A healthier Wilson will make a difference. And the coaches have to make sure they have the right personnel on the field.

When the Seahawks return to practice in a couple months, Pete Carroll and the coaches will emphasize third-down improvement as much as ever.

NFL

Will this be the year Saints draft Drew Brees' successor?

The New Orleans Saints don’t have to force it yet.

Eventually they will have to replace quarterback Drew Brees, who turned 38 in January. But he isn’t really acting his age yet. Brees played his best football in five years last season, once again leading the NFL with 5,208 passing yards. And he has talked many times about his determination to keep thriving into his 40s.

However, Brees has only one year remaining on his contract — which is how the Saints wanted it. Brees wanted a long-term extension last year, but the Saints preferred to evaluate the position year-by-year.

In other words, if the Saints fall head over heels for a QB in Round 1 of this year’s draft — such as Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky or Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer — the transition could come sooner than expected.

If not, the position is still in awfully good hands for the time being.

That’s why I have QB ranked ninth in my position-by-position breakdown of the Saints’ offseason needs. But it might be No. 1 when it comes to intrigue.

Drew Brees is still chugging along at age 38, which allows the Saints to be flexible about drafting a quarterback this year. Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports

Current depth chart:

Drew Brees: Age 38, signed through 2017. 2017 salary and bonuses: $13 million. 2017 salary-cap number: $19 million (Note: Brees’ contract also includes an $18 million salary-cap hit in 2018, even though his contract will void after this season).

Luke McCown: Age 35, signed through 2017. 2017 salary and bonuses: $1.5 million. 2017 salary-cap number: $1.75 million.

Garrett Grayson: Age 25, scheduled to be exclusive rights free agent in 2019. 2017 salary and bonuses: $540,000. 2017 salary-cap number: $540,000.

Analysis

For the third year in a row, the Saints will take a long, hard look at all of the top QB prospects in this year’s draft — as they should.

As I said, they don’t have to force it. And I’m in the camp that believes Brees can still be a top-10 NFL quarterback for at least three more seasons if healthy, so the Saints shouldn’t rush to shove him out the door — especially if they can use valuable assets like a first-round draft pick on someone who can help them make a playoff push while Brees is still thriving.

In fact, I would be comfortable signing Brees to another two-year extension through 2020 at his current rate of $24.25 million per year.

However, I also realize that the perfect QB might only come around once a decade, if that. So New Orleans has definitely reached the window in Brees’ career where it should be on the lookout.

Ideally, the Saints would find their version of Dak Prescott in Round 4. But that’s like saying they should just go out and buy the winning Powerball ticket. The Saints took a shot when they drafted Grayson in Round 3 in 2015, but he hasn’t panned out yet — though he is determined to try to salvage his career this offseason.

I don’t know if Watson, Trubisky or Kizer will be enough to sway the Saints into using the No. 11 pick on a QB. All of them seem to come with disclaimers, and none is universally rated as a surefire top-10 pick among draft analysts. But quarterbacks always seem to scream up the charts and wind up going higher than initially projected by the time the draft rolls around. So the Saints might not even have a shot at Watson or Trubisky unless they trade up.

They could wait until Round 2 or 3 and draft someone such as Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes or Miami’s Brad Kaaya. Or they could ignore the position entirely in the draft, especially since they like McCown as their backup and still have Grayson as a developmental option.

It seems even more unlikely that the Saints would get in on the Jimmy Garoppolo trade sweepstakes (if the New England Patriots are willing to trade him at all). Perhaps Tampa Bay Buccaneers free agent Mike Glennon could be considered, since Sean Payton has talked in the past about how much the Saints liked Glennon coming out in the draft.

At this point in Brees’ career, nothing can be ruled out.

Previous rankings:

No. 12 Specialists

No. 11 Wide receivers

No. 10 Tight ends

NFL

Packers can re-build their defense around Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

GREEN BAY, Wis. — With free agency less than a month away, it’s a good time to take a look at who the Green Bay Packers have returning and what they might need to add this offseason at each position.

Safeties

Under contract for 2017: Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Kentrell Brice, Marwin Evans, Jermaine Whitehead.

Free agents: Micah Hyde.

Position review: Burnett and Clinton-Dix evolved as a duo in part because of the amount of time they spent on the field together. Clinton-Dix played every defensive snap in the regular season and playoffs on the way to his first Pro Bowl selection, while Burnett was on the field for nearly 89 percent of the plays; he missed one game (Week 3 against Detroit because of a groin injury).

Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is someone the Packers can build around on defense. Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire

“When you have premier players on your defense and they line up and play 1,000 plays, to me that says it all,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said.

Hyde proved to be a jack-of-all trades defensive back, playing both safety and in the slot positions in the nickel and dime defense. He had four interceptions in the last seven games, including playoffs. Among them were a game-clincher in the Week 17 win at Detroit and one in the divisional-round win at Dallas.

The big-hitting Brice, a highly touted undrafted rookie, gained valuable experience, mostly in the dime when Burnett moved up closer to the line of scrimmage in what was essentially an inside linebacker position — something new for Burnett in 2016.

Position outlook: The Packers will either pick up the fifth-year option on Clinton-Dix’s rookie contract or work out a long-term extension. Despite some occasional lapses in coverage, he is defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ best playmaking safety since Nick Collins.

If there’s someone Capers and McCarthy can build around on defense, it’s Clinton-Dix. He is arguably general manager Ted Thompson’s best first-round pick since Clay Matthews in 2009 or Aaron Rodgers in 2005.

Burnett signed a four-year, $24.75 million extension in 2013, and while he’s been solid, it’s worth questioning whether he’s worth an average salary ($6,187,500) that still ranks 13th among all NFL safeties more than three years later.

The big decision will be Hyde. He’s likely seeking a deal in excess of $4 million per season. The Packers will have to figure out whether they value his versatility and dependability enough to make that kind of an investment. If they don’t, surely another team will.

The potential of Brice and Evans, who played more on special teams than on defense, could be a reason the Packers pass on Hyde if that’s the price tag.

The Packers have plenty of work to do on defense, but not necessarily at this position; pass-rushers and cornerbacks are a much bigger priority on this side of the ball.

Level of need (low, medium or high): Low.

By the numbers

5: Interceptions by Clinton-Dix in the regular season, which led the Packers and tied with Landon Collins of the Giants for most in the NFL by a safety.

2,335: Combined snaps out of a possible 2,472 played this past season by Clinton-Dix (1,236) and Burnett (1,099), including playoffs.

NFL

Broncos need offensive line overhaul in order to restore run game

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Even with time to think about it, to step away, to stop and smell the proverbial roses for a few weeks, it still gnaws at former Denver Broncos coach Gary Kubiak.

Because in virtually all of his time as an offensive coordinator and head coach in the NFL, one given was Kubiak’s offenses running the ball successfully. As in anytime, anywhere.

The pinnacle of the success — Terrell Davis — was selected to the Hall of Fame a couple of weeks ago. But just days before Davis was rewarded for being the rarest kind of player, Kubiak was still shaking his head at the Broncos’ 2016 run game.

C.J. Anderson and the Broncos’ run game struggled behind a shaky offensive line in 2016, but repairs are already underway. Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY Sports

“It does eat at me a bit — a lot,” said Kubiak, who stepped down after the season because of health reasons. “You’ve got a way of doing things, and it’s worked, it’s been productive, how you teach it, how you coach it. And I can tell you we worked as hard as you can work to fix it this season. And I’ve said that was just the biggest disappointment, but they’ve got a plan for that.”

In 2016, the Broncos were 27th in rushing at 92.8 yards per game and 28th in yards per carry at 3.6. They put in the effort without results given they were tied for 15th in carries at 25.6 per game. And while the decision at quarterback will dominate the narrative around the Broncos, what it will take to repair the run game is far more indicative of what they need to do in the offense’s overhaul.

In short, the Broncos were shaky on the offensive line all season. They didn’t consistently win at the point of attack or protect their young quarterbacks. The Broncos surrendered 40 sacks and far more big hits on Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch.

Siemian had offseason surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder, an indication of the struggles up front. And a quarterback, especially a young one, without a run game creates a target-rich environment for opposing defenses.

“Everyone always wants to look at a quarterback and say you have to have this quarterback,” Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy said. “I’m not taking anything away from the quarterback position. It is critical to have that guy, but you have to have the five guys up front playing as one and doing everything right … so that quarterback can sit back in the pocket and do what he can do.”

McCoy’s first call was to one of his former assistants with the San Diego Chargers — Jeff Davidson — to coach the offensive line. Davidson then wanted John Benton as the assistant line coach.

The combination of the two shows McCoy is leaning toward his approach in his last stint with the Broncos — he guided the offense for four seasons before taking over the Chargers in 2013. That included a run game that featured both a gap scheme at times, with more straight-ahead, one-on-one blocking, mixed with the zone scheme — the linemen move together to block defenders in specific areas. Davidson has used the gap scheme more; Benton is versed in the zone scheme, having been Kubiak’s offensive line coach for eight seasons with the Houston Texans.

“Jeff is a great gap-scheme, power-scooter guy, and John Benton was the best at the zone-blocking schemes, so having both of those guys should allow us to do both,” Broncos coach Vance Joseph said. “When you’re doing both, you want linemen that are aggressive—quick laterals. So that won’t change whether there’s a zone-blocking scheme or a gap scheme. Same guys.”

Which leads to the expected depth-chart overhaul on the offensive line. Broncos executive vice president of football operations/general manager John Elway is expected to have north of $42 million worth of room against the salary cap for free agency. Team president/CEO Joe Ellis has said the Broncos are prepared to make a substantial investment “back into the team.” And they may have as many as 10 draft picks.

The Broncos have also been pleased with the progress of the three backs who finished the season on injured reserve — C.J. Anderson, Kapri Bibbs and fullback Andy Janovich. Anderson has said he expects to be “better than ever” in his recovery from surgery just before Halloween.

It’s all on the same to-do list, McCoy said, and no one will be exempt from the repairs.

“There [are] a number of things that, I think when you look at the offensive line, it’s not just them,” McCoy said. “It is everybody. That has got to be the emphasis with our whole entire team. We’ve all got to look at ourselves first, and we’ve all got to say, ‘OK, how are we going to get better? What really is good enough as an offense?’ We’re going to push the limit every day … I will say this, Jeff Davidson and John will make them play better, and they will play better next year.”

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“If you think about it, I've never held a job in my life. I went from being an NFL player to a coach to a broadcaster. I haven't worked a day in my life.”
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