Nick Wagoner is an NFL reporter at ESPN. Nick has covered the San Francisco 49ers since 2016, having previously covered the St. Louis Rams for 12 years, including three years (2013 to 2015) at ESPN. In over a decade with the company, Nick has led ESPN’s coverage of the Niners’ 2019 and 2023 Super Bowl run, Colin Kaepernick’s protest, the Rams making Michael Sam the first openly gay player drafted to the NFL, Sam’s subsequent pursuit of a roster spot and the team’s relocation and stadium saga.
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The San Francisco 49ers’ defensive line renovation continues as they traded for Philadelphia Eagles edge rusher Bryce Huff, the team announced on Monday.
The trade includes a restructured contract for Huff, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Huff was slated to make $16.75 million in fully guaranteed money in 2025, but the Eagles will take on $9.05 million in salary, leaving the Niners to handle the remaining $7.95 million. San Francisco will send a middle-round draft pick to the Eagles for Huff.
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Upon landing in San Francisco, Huff will be reunited with defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who was Huff’s coach with the New York Jets for three seasons. There, Huff had his best NFL season in 2023, posting a career-high 10 sacks and 68 pressures on 312 pass-rush snaps. That 21.8% pressure rate was the best in the NFL, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
That breakout season resulted in Huff landing one of the biggest free agent deals of 2024 when he signed a three-year, $51 million deal with the Eagles. But Huff never got his footing in Philadelphia, finishing last season with 13 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 12 games with just six starts.
With the 49ers, Huff is joining a team that has undergone an extensive defensive makeover in the offseason, especially on the defensive line. Star defensive end Nick Bosa is the only surefire starter returning after the team released defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins and defensive end Leonard Floyd.
San Francisco restocked the line largely through the draft, spending the 11th pick on defensive end Mykel Williams and second- and fourth-round choices on tackles Alfred Collins and CJ West, respectively.
Huff provides not only experience on the edge opposite Bosa but also could allow the team to move Williams around the line in sub packages after Williams played about 36% of his snaps inside during the 2024 college season.
Alaina Getzenberg covers the Buffalo Bills for ESPN. She joined ESPN in 2021. Alaina was previously a beat reporter for the Charlotte Observer and has also worked for CBS Sports and the Dallas Morning News. She is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen made quite the catch, marrying his fiancée, musician and actress Hailee Steinfeld, on Saturday, according to multiple reports.
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The pair announced their engagement in November with the proposal taking place during the Bills’ bye week. The following week, Allen described his bye as “fantastic.” They were first linked together publicly in the spring of 2023.
The reigning MVP quarterback was in attendance and participating in Tuesday’s voluntary organized team activities with the Bills, while Steinfeld is coming off the success of her latest film, “Sinners,” which surpassed a $200 million domestic total.
Coach Sean McDermott was asked whether he had seen any jitters from Allen on Tuesday.
“Jitters from Josh? I’m not going to get into any of that,” McDermott said. “Good try on that. But he is as confident and as calm, cool and collected as he always is.”
On Saturday, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback announced on social media that his fiancée, Sarah Jane Ramos, gave birth to a baby girl on May 22. The couple named their daughter Aurora Rayne.
“I love you [Sarah Jane] and the family we’ve created,” Prescott wrote in the post.
The couple’s other daughter, Margaret Jane Rose Prescott, was born on Feb. 22, 2024.
“I love you and our sweet girls more than anything,” Ramos commented under the announcement.
Cowboys defensive end Micah Parsons and singer Jessie James Decker were among the many who congratulated Prescott and Ramos on their newborn.
During the 2023 season, in which Prescott threw for a career-high 4,516 passing yards, he credited fatherhood for his dominance on the field.
“It’s dad strength is why I’m playing that way,” Prescott said.
Prescott amassed 1,978 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions in eight games in 2024 before suffering a hamstring avulsion that required surgery, cutting his season short.
Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX — but just barely, with a cluster of teams close to the reigning champs in terms of ability and chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That’s according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) — our football ratings and projection model — which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.
The Eagles have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl according to the model, the lowest chance the preseason favorite has had to win it all since the model began outputting preseason projections in 2015.
In the preseason, FPI’s overall predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule — along with factors such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.
Ratings evolve as we learn more about each team based on its performance on offense, defense and special teams — accounting for opponent — along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials. Let’s dive into our 2025 forecast and our biggest takeaways.
Jump to: Top teams | Super Bowl | NFC North NFC West | AFC East | AFC North Who’s last? | No. 1 pick
Eagles top the NFL’s elite group
The NFL’s 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills. These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, meaning none of them would be favored by more than a single point over another on a neutral field. But there’s a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Bills and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.
First look at NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 27, 2025
The common theme between the top five teams? Offensive strength. That’s right, the “defense wins championships” cliché isn’t reflected here. Offense is more stable from game to game and season to season, so teams with the best past quarterback and offensive production are more likely to repeat that success. That’s critical because the point of the FPI is to look ahead, not back. It’s no coincidence that the top five teams also have the five best offenses according to the FPI, albeit in a different order.
But it’s not all offense — the defending champion Eagles are oh-so-slightly in the overall lead because they also have the best defense. With linebacker Zack Baun back to anchor the middle and ascending young talent such as defensive tackle Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philly’s defense sets it apart.
All five teams in the top tier have at least an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that the Super Bowl winner will be one of those five teams. No other team has greater than a 5% chance to win it all.
Best chance to win the Super Bowl
Rank
Team
Chance
Rank
Team
Chance
1
Eagles
12%
8
Chargers
4%
2
Chiefs
11%
9
Bengals
4%
3
Bills
10%
10
49ers
4%
4
Ravens
9%
11
Packers
4%
5
Lions
8%
12
Buccaneers
3%
6
Commanders
5%
13
Broncos
3%
7
Rams
5%
14
Vikings
3%
See the
Could we see an Eagles-Chiefs repeat in the Super Bowl?
Two of the past three Super Bowls have been between Kansas City and Philadelphia. Will it be three of four? The 4.2% chance of a Super Bowl LIX repeat is the greatest of any combination of teams in our Super Bowl matchup projections, slightly besting the 3.6% chances of Ravens-Eagles and Bills-Eagles matchups. Top combinations are listed below and rounded to the nearest whole number.
Most likely Super Bowl LX matchups
Matchup
Likelihood
1
Eagles vs. Chiefs
4%
2
Eagles vs. Ravens
4%
3
Eagles vs. Bills
4%
4
Lions vs. Bills
3%
5
Lions vs. Ravens
3%
6
Lions vs. Chiefs
3%
7
Rams vs. Chiefs
2%
8
Commanders vs. Chiefs
2%
9
Rams vs. Bills
2%
10
49ers vs. Chiefs
2%
When looking at the top 10 most likely Super Bowl combinations, several different NFC teams appear on the list. The Eagles and Lions show up the most, but the Commanders, Rams and 49ers each appeared in one of the most likely combinations. The AFC side of the matchups was dominated by three teams — the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens.
Who is the favorite in the loaded NFC North?
It’s not a big surprise, but every team in the NFC North ranks in the top half of the FPI ratings. Detroit leads the way at No. 4, followed by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16).
If there is a curveball, it’s that Minnesota ranks only 15th after going 14-3 in 2024. But the Vikings relied on their defense — which ranked third in EPA per play — last season while ranking a mediocre 15th on offense. And even though Brian Flores remains as defensive coordinator, defensive success is hard to replicate.
Meanwhile, the Bears moved in the opposite direction. After Chicago finished 24th in total efficiency (EPA per play adjusted for garbage time) last season, the FPI sees it as a minimally above-average team entering 2025. The reasons for optimism are obvious. The Bears brought in new coach Ben Johnson and added significant talent to their offensive line, and quarterback Caleb Williams now has a season of NFL experience — even if that experience was shaky.
So, who comes out ahead? The Lions lead the way with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. But they all have a chance, as even the Bears are at 15%.
Can the 49ers bounce back and win the NFC West?
FPI narrowly has the Rams as the best team in the NFC West. But the favorite to win the division? That would (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams’ 34%.
Why the discrepancy? Strength of schedule. No team enters 2025 with an easier slate than the 49ers, who not only get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the rest of their division, but also the Giants, Browns and Bears due to finishing last in the division in 2024. In comparison, the Rams must face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as part of their first-place schedule.
That is enough to give San Francisco the edge over Los Angeles in the projections. It also indicates the FPI’s belief in the 49ers bouncing back after a brutally disappointing 6-11 campaign. A big part of that faith is the betting market believing that the 49ers were hampered by injuries to key players last season — including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, running back Christian McCaffrey and offensive lineman Trent Williams — and that they should be dangerous if healthy.
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Can any of the other AFC East teams challenge the Bills?
They could, but no individual team is particularly likely to do so. Buffalo is the only AFC East team with a positive FPI rating and would be considered more than a four-point favorite over each of the other three on a neutral field. And the Bills have a 65% chance to win their division — the highest of any team in the NFL by a hefty margin.
Of course, that leaves more than a 1-in-3 chance that someone else will win the AFC East. That’s mainly due to the uncertainty of football — the FPI might be overrating the Bills or underrating someone else, or one of the other teams could luck into the division title despite not being as good as Buffalo overall.
But that variance will always be there. In the meantime, the Bills are again in as good a position as it gets to win their division.
But the lack of year-to-year continuity that happens with good defenses also happens with weaker units. Cincinnati replaced defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which increases the FPI’s uncertainty on that side of the ball. Ultimately, the model forecasts the Bengals to have an average defense, which moves them to No. 7 in the overall rankings.
The Ravens are by far the most likely AFC North champion at 54%, and the Bengals are next at 29%. But Cincinnati has a 60% chance to reach the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff team in the AFC after missing the postseason the past two seasons.
Best playoff odds in each conference
AFC team
Chance
NFC team
Chance
Bills
81%
Eagles
76%
Ravens
79%
Lions
67%
Chiefs
77%
49ers
62%
Bengals
60%
Rams
61%
Chargers
57%
Buccaneers
59%
Texans
54%
Commanders
58%
Broncos
49%
Packers
51%
Steelers
38%
Vikings
43%
Dolphins
38%
Cardinals
37%
Colts
37%
Bears
36%
Who ranks last?
The FPI’s 32nd-ranked team is not the Titans, Browns or Giants. It’s the Saints, who find themselves at the bottom of the rankings after the
Cleveland on the clock?
The Browns are the most likely team to end the season holding the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. Much of that is due to a quarterback room comprising Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule.
The Giants are rated slightly above the Browns in the FPI and have the second-highest chance to earn the No. 1 pick at 12%, due to facing the league’s most difficult schedule. The Titans, Saints and Jets follow with 11%, 10% and 10% chances, respectively.
