We can all see how moments on the field can impact the NFL for years to come. In 2018, the Rams went to a Super Bowl and failed to score a touchdown against the Patriots, which started an overhaul of their running game and eventually led to the decision to trade quarterback Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford. Three seasons later, Stafford’s now-famous no-look pass to Cooper Kupp helped set up the game-winning touchdown against the Bengals in Los Angeles’ title game return.
What’s tougher to see, perhaps, is how moments and situations off the field can eventually lead to dramatic changes across the entire league. One team’s decision or behavior might directly or indirectly lead to another team making a dramatic, unexpected change. The NFL landscape can be altered years after the fact by a single decision made thousands of miles away.
A pair of recent moves from the 2022 offseason led me to trace a path all the way back to October 2017. You can make a case that the owner of one team eventually caused two players on two other teams to be traded away. I’m going to lay out the timeline on how the Texans might very well have been responsible for the trades of Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill.
June 2017: Duane Brown doesn’t report to mandatory minicamp
The two huge wide receiver trades we saw in March somehow all date back to a left tackle holding out. After the 2016 season ended, reports suggested that Brown, a nine-year veteran who had made three consecutive Pro Bowls for Houston between 2012 and 2014, wanted to renegotiate his deal. With two years and $19.4 million remaining on his contract, the 31-year-old was likely hoping to lock in one more significant extension as he exited the typical peak years for offensive tackles.
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The Texans didn’t budge, citing a policy of not giving out extensions with two years to go on a player’s deal. Most teams have a similar sort of policy, although they can be flexible when desired. (Then-Texans general manager Rick Smith, as an example, gave Did Brown’s position as the spokesperson for the players responding to McNair’s comments cause the Texans to trade their only option at left tackle? We may never know for sure. McNair, who • Ranks: With no other serious competitors reported in those negotiations, the Dolphins probably wouldn’t get the same sort of package we saw for Tunsil from another team over the next year. Maybe they could have kept Tunsil and not This deal turned out to be a disaster for the Falcons. Two years into the contract, their new regime decided to send the “Falcon for Life” to the Titans It would be one thing if Tunsil just exploited his leverage for a huge deal, but other Texans deals from this period were also surprisingly high. Watson’s four-year, $160 million deal came in well ahead of expectations when compared to the deals for Goff and Carson Wentz after their third seasons. Zach Cunningham inked a four-year, $58 million deal with a middling track record. Nick Martin and Whitney Mercilus were paid like stars at their respective positions, while O’Brien paid over the odds in free agency for replacement-level players like Eric Murray and Randall Cobb. Of these players, the only ones left on the Texans roster are Murray (who took a pay cut last month) and Tunsil, who moved from one rebuild and joined another. For a moment, it looked like O’Brien’s all-in move to get Tunsil was going to pay off. After a comeback victory over the Bills at home in the wild-card round, the Texans were set to try to advance past the divisional round for the first time in team history. At the end of the first quarter in Kansas City, the underdog Texans were up 21-0. No team had ever blown a first-quarter lead of at least 21 points in a playoff game, and Houston added three more early in the second quarter. You know what happened next. The Chiefs scored 41 unanswered points across their next six drives. The Texans failed on a fake punt and allowed four sacks during their unprecedented collapse, eventually losing by 20 points. The loss wasn’t Tunsil’s fault, but it was a sign that O’Brien’s move to go all-in hadn’t left the team with the sort of roster they needed to compete with the best team in the AFC. If the Texans hold onto that lead, who knows what happens? They would have been at home in the AFC Championship Game against the Titans, who O’Brien & Co. had beaten in Week 15 (before sitting their starters and losing a meaningless Week 17 rematch to the same team). The Texans likely would have been favored with a chance to go to the Super Bowl. It’s impossible to say whether they would have beaten the 49ers, but going to a championship game would have affirmed everything they had done over the prior two seasons. It also might have discouraged O’Brien from drastically changing his roster, including trading away arguably his best player. It’s still stunning. After reports that there was some friction in the relationship between Hopkins and the only professional organization he had ever known, a trade came suddenly, and the terms didn’t make any sense. The Texans had swapped fourth-round picks with the Cardinals and acquired Hopkins for a second-round pick and running back David Johnson, whose contract was drastically underwater. I wondered whether Hopkins had lost a limb. The trade doesn’t look any better with hindsight for the Texans, who paid Johnson more than $15 million for two years of replacement-level running back work. They used their second-round pick on Ross Blacklock, who has started three games across his first two seasons despite limited competition. The fourth-round pick was used to help trade for Marcus Cannon, who was cut after playing four games for Houston. We also have more evidence that the package for Hopkins was well below what we saw for other, similarly talented wide receivers. The trades for Odell Beckham Jr., Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill each saw the team trading away their star wideout getting a first-round pick and additional draft selections in return. The Texans were able to get only a second-round pick and a player whose contract canceled out most of the value from that pick. Initial reports after the trade suggested that Hopkins wanted to redo his deal with three years remaining, and after refusing to give Brown an extension with two years left, it should have been no surprise that the Texans blanched on giving Hopkins more money. As I mentioned, they could have followed the Jones path and given Hopkins a bonus up front on his original deal while promising to do an extension with two years left, but even that seemed like a bridge too far. I don’t think the Texans should have dealt Hopkins for the package they received, and they could have afforded Hopkins if they had managed the rest of their contracts more efficiently, but the contract the Cardinals eventually gave him might explain why they were willing to make the trade. When the Cardinals acquired Hopkins, he had three years and just under $40 million remaining on his deal. They then handed him an unprecedented average salary for a wide receiver, as they negotiated a two-year, $54.5 million extension. The previous high for a wideout was the three-year, $66 million deal signed by Jones the prior September. Like Jones’ deal, Hopkins’ was an extension on his already-existing deal, which still had significant runway remaining. Hopkins’ deal, on the whole, was a five-year, $94.4-million contract, with three years and just over $60 million practically guaranteed. You can choose either the $18.9 million total average or the $20 million practical average, but he wasn’t really ever getting $27.3 million per year. Half of the new money in the extension was paid up front as a signing bonus, while the other half was spread throughout the deal. In the NFL, though, players (and agents) care about average annual salary, especially at the top of the market. There’s a long-established trend of players near the top of their position becoming the highest-paid player in the league at that spot when they sign a new deal. It’s more about pride and respect than anything else; for whatever accolades or quotes a player gets, nothing reinforces production and dominance more than becoming the highest-paid player at your position. As a result, when the top of the wide receiver market began to approach the final year of their contracts, teams were facing an impossible problem. They were stuck negotiating off that $27.3 million average as the baseline for the top of the wide receiver market, even though that Hopkins extension doesn’t technically start until 2023 and never really looked like $27 million per season. That was one thing for a player with three years left to go on his existing deal, but organizations negotiating deals for 2022 wanted to go off of the standard for contracts in the short term, which was Amari Cooper’s mark of $20 million per season. While the weirdness of the 2021 season and its reduced salary cap put some extensions on hold, that disconnect eventually led to two huge trades in a matter of days. Adams’ initial ask in contract negotiations was reportedly $30 million per season, which would be a leap above Hopkins. Again, given that Adams was a franchise-tagged free agent and Hopkins was under contract for years to come, this would have been a massive difference in terms of short-term value. Hopkins made $60.1 million over the first three years of his new pact; Adams would have been in a totally different stratosphere. The Packers could have franchised him twice and paid him $44.3 million, so there wasn’t really a way to make that sort of money work. Relive some of the league’s most memorable games, from Super Bowl XLII to the 2018 AFC title game. Watch on ESPN+ In the end, they dealt Adams to the Raiders for a first- and second-round pick in April’s draft. Adams signed a five-year, $140 million deal that exceeded Hopkins’ average salary on paper but doesn’t play out as lucratively in practice. Adams will likely take home $67.7 million over the first three years of this deal in practical guarantees, which is ahead of Jones and Hopkins, but by only $3.7 million. Signing Adams to that deal would have been reasonable for the Packers; as I wrote at the time, it’s tougher for the Raiders, who have to forgo the surplus value of two high picks to get Adams on their roster. If the Hopkins extension isn’t so far out of line with the top of the wideout market, Adams likely comes in with a paper value of $23 million or so per year, and I wonder if Green Bay gets that deal done without having to trade away its star receiver. A few days later, the Chiefs followed in kind by deciding against an extension for their downfield dynamo. Hill was shipped off to Miami for a package of five selections, most notably the Nos. 29 and 50 picks in this draft. The trade leaves free-agent signing JuJu Smith-Schuster as Kansas City’s top receiver. Hill’s deal is a step beyond what the Raiders paid Adams (and the Bills paid Stefon Diggs) by every measure. In terms of average annual salary on paper, he actually makes the leap to $30 million per season on a four-year, $120-million extension. He had one year remaining on his existing deal when Adams was a franchised free agent, but by the structure of his deal, Hill will take home $72.8 million over the next three years. That’s the fourth-highest mark in the league for non-quarterbacks, as he will trail only a series of edge rushers in T.J. Watt, Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. As a position, wide receiver has now clearly surpassed left tackle and cornerback and become the third-most expensive spot on the positional spectrum. Positions don’t usually give back these sorts of massive jumps in terms of contract value, which is why organizations with young wide receivers are going to ask themselves serious questions about their deals. Do the Steelers really want to commit $30 million per year to Diontae Johnson? Will the Seahawks do that for DK Metcalf, or the Titans with A.J. Brown? We’re going to see teams that are willing to pay that price for star receivers and others that prefer to spend their money elsewhere. 1:09 Robert Griffin III breaks down what the Tyreek Hill trade means going forward for the Dolphins and the Chiefs. The Dolphins, meanwhile, find themselves having come full circle from the Tunsil trade. After trading away young stars to amass a haul of draft picks, they are now the team trading picks for an immediate impact. From an offensive perspective, there’s a lot to be excited about, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing to Hill and Jaylen Waddle. After adding left tackle Terron Armstead in free agency, Miami can expect to get the best out of its young quarterback in a critical third season for Tagovailoa. At the same time, it runs into the same problem the Raiders have with Adams: It’s so tough for any non-quarterback to deliver on this sort of contract with the added cost of the draft picks used to acquire that star. The Rams made it work with Jalen Ramsey, but he was still on a rookie deal when the Rams made their deal. You can argue that the Dolphins had extra draft capital from all their deals, but those picks could still have been used to acquire younger talent on team-friendly contracts. Hill is a dynamic receiver, but if he’s not the same away from Patrick Mahomes, his contract will immediately look bad. On the other hand, do you think the Texans look back on deciding against paying Hopkins with any level of fondness? O’Brien was fired four games after the Hopkins deal, the Texans went 4-12, and they’ve been irrelevant since. I don’t think they collapsed in 2020 as a product of trading him — and what has unfolded with Watson has nothing to do with that deal — but it’s not as simple as going for the cheaper option at a position, either. We’ll see what happens with the Adams and Hill trades in a few years, but if the Texans simply re-sign Duane Brown all those years ago, the entire league might look drastically different.
January 2020: The Texans blow a 24-0 lead against the Chiefs
March 2020: The Texans trade DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals
September 2020: The Cardinals hand Hopkins a spectacular extension
March 2022: The Packers trade Davante Adams to the Raiders
March 2022: The Chiefs trade Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins
TAMPA, Fla. — In one of the most shocking moves of arguably the wildest NFL offseason in recent memory, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers announced Wednesday that coach Bruce Arians is transitioning from a head-coaching role into a front-office one, with defensive coordinator Todd Bowles being elevated to head coach.
The timing of the move is unusual — peculiar even. Did Tom Brady push Arians out?
Arians had already committed to returning in 2022 — even doing so in a text to ESPN on Jan. 30, saying he was “totally” returning, even after Brady announced he was retiring. He attended the NFL combine earlier this month and was present at the NFL owners meetings this week before leaving one day early and not speaking to the media because of what were described as “personal reasons.”
But a source told ESPN that Arians informed Brady shortly after his return announcement that he would be stepping aside, which meant Brady was actively recruiting players to join Tampa Bay with full knowledge that Arians wouldn’t be the coach.
What’s also interesting is that Arians informed Bowles of his decision Monday, a source told ESPN, after getting clarity on a hiring rule at the owners meetings. So Brady knew about this before Bowles did.
Most close to Arians believed that at 69 he would continue coaching for just a few more years. Still, members of his staff were shocked when Arians informed them of the news Wednesday before it was made public. Bowles’ promotion ensures continuity on defense, and it gives Brady and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich even more ownership of the offense.
Bowles had long been considered Arians’ successor had he not been hired elsewhere. He interviewed for head-coaching vacancies with the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears this offseason but was passed up for both. But Tampa Bay has always been the kind of place where Bowles could thrive.
Unlike when he was the coach of the New York Jets, Bowles doesn’t need to dazzle at the podium to earn favor with fans and the media. He can keep his usual evasiveness, sprinkling in a touch of dry, self-deprecating humor — something most people don’t get to see unless they’re speaking to him one-on-one or in an informal setting.
That, and the fact that players love him, even though they too were caught off guard by the move. Devin White tweeted out, “No better person! My guy!” when news broke.
Bowles just needs to win, and he’s in a position to focus almost solely on defense, a defense with a style that is very similar to that of the team’s ‘No risk it, no biscuit’ identity.
Bowles’ promotion comes at a critical time in the NFL, a league that has struggled to find answers to its diversity hiring struggles, to the point that the league just adopted a new rule this week that all teams must add a minority offensive coach for the 2022 season and expanded the Rooney Rule to include women.
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While Bowles is not on the offensive side of the ball, which tends to be where many head-coaching hires are currently made, his presence is certainly impactful. He becomes the sixth minority head coach in the NFL and third hired this year, joining Lovie Smith (Houston Texans) and Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins). Bowles also becomes the fourth Black head coach in Buccaneers history — two more than any other team has had.
There are plenty of questions, some of which won’t be answered for some time. Bowles might get only one shot at this with Brady, who’s not under contract after the 2022 season, but could this keep Brady in Tampa longer should things go well? Or will Bowles be responsible for bringing along a new quarterback and taking on the growing pains that come with it?
It’s also fair to ask how Bowles will handle this expanded role given he had just one winning season with the Jets (10-6 in 2015) in his four-year tenure, although many would also argue that synergy within the Jets’ organization was lacking and Bowles was set up to fail, whereas Arians was trying to do the opposite.
“I wanted to ensure when I walked away that Todd Bowles would have the best opportunity to succeed,” Arians said in a statement. “So many head coaches come into situations where they are set up for failure, and I didn’t want that for Todd. Tom’s decision to come back, along with Jason and his staff doing another great job of keeping the core of this team intact during free agency, confirmed for me that it was the right time to pass the torch to Todd.”
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Marcel Louis-JacquesESPN
MIAMI — The Miami Dolphins haven’t fielded a top-10 offense since 1995, the longest drought in the NFL. If that streak extends another season, it won’t be for lack of talent.
In a 24-hour span, Miami signed Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead to a five-year contract, then traded five draft picks to the Kansas City Chiefs for All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill on Wednesday to officially become an AFC contender.
Considering the moves playoff hopefuls such as the Chargers (Khalil Mack), Broncos (Russell Wilson), Bills (Von Miller), Raiders (Davante Adams, Chandler Jones) and Browns (Deshaun Watson) have all made, Dolphins general manager Chris Grier needed to make a splash in coach Mike McDaniel’s first season.
McDaniel made it clear from his introductory news conference what his team’s needs were. When asked about his belief in third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, he reminded everyone listening that Tagovailoa was not solely responsible for this offense’s success.
“I haven’t seen a quarterback win a football game by himself ever, really,” he said. “He has to have somebody to throw to. He better not be getting tackled before he throws, so somebody better block.”
With Hill and Armstead, alone, the Dolphins are better off in both departments — but these are just the latest moves in what has been a weeklong offensive identity shift.
The Dolphins improved their backfield by adding Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, bolstered their offensive line with Connor Williams and added another speedster at receiver in Cedrick Wilson. Paired with Armstead and Hill, that’s six likely new starters taking the field for Miami next season, most of whom have one thing in common — speed.
“Absolutely blazing speed fast,” fullback Alec Ingold said. “Everyone’s going to be running. Shoot, the entire offense is going to be running.”
And Ingold, another likely starter for Miami in 2022, was just talking about his backfield mates.
Adding Mostert, Edmonds and Wilson is one thing. Trading for Hill — sources told ESPN that Miami gave up a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29), second-round pick (No. 50) and fourth-round pick, plus fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2023 draft — gives the Dolphins the NFL’s premier home run threat regardless of position.
Per ESPN Stats & Information research, Hill has 26 receiving touchdowns on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield over the past five seasons — four more than the Dolphins have in that same span. Since Miami drafted Tagovailoa in 2020, its wide receivers have averaged 2.64 yards of separation on targets, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the fourth-lowest mark in the league.
Hill’s 3.59 average yards of separation ranked 13th most in the NFL last season. The Dolphins’ leading receiver, Jaylen Waddle, finished 26th in the NFL in the same category at 3.32 yards.
Waddle and Hill now create possibly the fastest wide receiver duo in NFL history, but don’t let their speed typecast them as deep-ball threats. Waddle and Hill ranked ninth and 10th, respectively, in yards after the catch last season.
That’s a critical stat to remember, considering Tagovailoa’s average depth of target last season (6.92 yards) ranked fourth lowest in the league. He attempted the second-fewest passes of at least 25 yards last season among qualified quarterbacks, but he did lead the league in completion percentage on such passes.
This is officially a make-or-break season for Tagovailoa. Gone are the excuses of his fledgling supporting cast, abysmal offensive line and subpar coaching staff.
He now has the most dangerous wide receiver in the NFL on one side with the franchise’s rookie receptions leader on the other. He has, statistically speaking, the fastest running back in the NFL behind him in Mostert and one of the league’s most versatile backs in Edmonds.
Three players on this offense (Hill, Mostert and Waddle) have broken the 21 mph mark on the field.