It’s Week 15: Score picks, playoff stakes and bold predictions for every game

Bold prediction: Wilson will complete at least 75% of his passes. He has hit that mark four times this season, including last weekend as the Seahawks’ game plan against the Jets and their new defensive coordinator was to get the ball out quickly on shorter passes. Washington’s loaded defensive line will give the Seahawks another reason to do that Sunday, especially if starting right tackle Brandon Shell is unavailable. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: Over the past four weeks, Washington’s defensive line leads NFL with 58 QB pressures and boasts the second-highest pass rush win rate, beating blocks within 2.5 seconds 61% of the time, per ESPN metrics and NFL Next Gen Stats.

Playoff/draft picture: Win and they’re in for the Seahawks this weekend. Washington can’t clinch the NFC East or a playoff spot, but it has a 68.6% chance of making the playoffs per FPI. It has not reached the playoffs since 2015.

Injuries: Seahawks | Washington

What to know for fantasy: Seattle receiver Tyler Lockett has been held under 12.5 fantasy points in six of seven games since his 53-point outburst against the Cardinals, and Washington owns the fourth-best defense against receivers this season. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: Washington has covered in four consecutive games, all wins. Read more.

Henderson’s pick: Seahawks 23, Washington 17
Keim’s pick: Seahawks 24, Washington 17
FPI prediction: SEA, 61.3% (by an average of 3.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Below .500 but division champions? Washington could be navigating a road Seahawks first traveled … Washington’s defensive rise goes beyond Young … Playoff preview? Seahawks’ trip to Washington could happen again in January … Young, defense help vault Washington into first place in NFC East … Seahawks’ Adams sets DB sacks mark vs. Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 49.1 | Spread: MIA -1 (41.5)

What to watch for: The Patriots are the NFL’s fifth-best rushing offense (147.5 yards per game), and they leaned on that rushing for 217 yards (quarterback Cam Newton had 75) when they beat the Dolphins 21-11 in the season opener. Miami’s rushing defense (120.2 yards per game allowed, 22nd in the NFL) has improved some since then, but the Dolphins know the key to stopping the Patriots’ offense starts with minimizing the running attack. — Cameron Wolfe

Bold prediction: A trick play, with Newton on the receiving end, will provide a spark, as the Patriots need to pull out all the stops with their season on the line. Even though playoff hopes are a long shot, the Patriots will go all out to win, and the offense will need to get creative at times to jump-start an attack that produced only three points in a Week 14 loss to the Rams. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Dolphins have forced a turnover in 19 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the Dolphins’ longest streak since a 19-game run in 1997-98. The most recent time Miami had a longer streak was in 1982-85 (42 straight).

Playoff/draft picture: The Patriots could be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss this weekend, which would end a streak of 11 straight seasons with a postseason appearance. They are projected to pick 16th in the draft, with a 1.9% chance to move into the top 10 per FPI. In a role reversal, the Dolphins have a 30.2% chance to see some playoff football.

Injuries: Patriots | Dolphins

What to know for fantasy: Newton had a season-high 15 rushing attempts (75 yards and two scores) in the Week 1 meeting with the Dolphins. He scored 25.7 fantasy points in that game, but he has reached that mark just once since. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: This is the first time Miami has been favored over New England since 2013, and it’s the first time Miami has been favored by more than one point over New England since 2003. Read more.

Reiss’ pick: Patriots 20, Dolphins 17
Wolfe’s pick: Dolphins 20, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: NE, 51.8% (by an average of 0.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Facing Tagovailoa, Patriots look to continue dominance vs. rookie QBs … Mapping out Dolphins’ path to 2020 NFL playoffs: Wild card or bust … Patriots running backs “just trying to stay afloat” during challenging season … Oh, “Boise”: How the Miami Miracle unfolded and stunned Patriots … Sticking with Newton gives Belichick cover for Patriots’ roster issues … Dolphins are making a name for themselves with their no-name defense

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 48.1 | Spread: IND -7 (50.5)

What to watch for: Keep an eye on the Colts’ pass rush facing the Texans’ offensive line. The Colts were shut out when it came to sacks against the Raiders in Week 14, but Houston quarterbacks were sacked seven times by the Bears last weekend. Indianapolis sacked Texans QB Deshaun Watson five times when these teams met two weeks ago, and he Texans have given up 40 sacks this season. — Mike Wells

Bold prediction: Houston wide receiver Keke Coutee will have another game with 100 or more receiving yards. The three best games in Coutee’s career have come against the Colts (a combined 22 catches for 275 yards), and that will continue on Sunday. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: Watson has 25 passing touchdowns this season, and he needs just two more to set a new career high.

Playoff/draft picture: The Colts enter the weekend with an 85% chance of making the playoffs per FPI. They’ll have a 95% chance with a victory Sunday but a 66% chance with a loss. Houston is out of the playoff race but also does not have a first-round pick for 2021.

Injuries: Texans | Colts

What to know for fantasy: Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf and T.Y. Hilton are the only players this season to string together three straight games with 80 receiving yards and a touchdown catch, with Hilton being the one riding an active streak. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games as a favorite. Read more.

Barshop’s pick: Colts 31, Texans 24
Wells’ pick: Colts 34, Texans 20
FPI prediction: IND, 63.7% (by an average of 4.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Hard to see better days ahead for Texans’ D after “embarrassing” loss … Colts’ Sanchez thankful to be back after “whirlwind” three weeks … Texans players gather at Watson’s new restaurant’s opening in potential protocol violation … Colts’ Reich says QB Rivers has “multiple years” left if he wants to keep playing … Colts’ Hilton vanished, but now he’s the real “Ghost” again

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 48.1 | Spread: MIN -3 (47)

What to watch for: All eyes will be on Vikings kicker Dan Bailey after he missed three field goals and an extra point in a Week 14 loss to Tampa Bay. Coach Mike Zimmer was lukewarm on his commitment to Bailey this week, but given the COVID-19 protocols and Bailey’s long history of being an excellent kicker, all signs point to Minnesota not making a change for the Bears game. But if Bailey misses a kick Sunday, I’m not so sure how much longer he’ll be on the roster. — Courtney Cronin

Bold prediction: The Bears will win their third straight game in Minnesota for the first time since 1983-85. Chicago coach Matt Nagy has had the Vikings’ number at U.S. Bank Stadium, where his team has won each of the past two seasons, including a dominant victory in the 2018 regular-season finale that kept Minnesota out of the playoffs. Nagy is 4-1 lifetime versus the Vikings, the lone loss occurring when these teams met at Soldier Field on Nov. 16. — Jeff Dickerson

Stat to know: Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook has 14 rushing touchdowns this season, the second most in a single season in Vikings history (Adrian Peterson had 18 in 2009). But Cook has averaged 2.84 yards per rush in four career games against the Bears.

Playoff/draft picture: The winner of this game will stay in the playoff hunt, while the loser will have no better than a 5% chance of reaching the postseason, according to FPI. Chicago is currently looking at a 15% chance to make the playoffs, which could rise to 36% with a win and would fall to 2% in a loss. Minnesota — sitting at 21% now — would jump to 32% with a win but drop to 5% in a loss.

Injuries: Bears | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen scored twice in the first meeting with the Bears, but Justin Jefferson had twice as many receptions and caught 80% of his targets (Thielen was at 57.1%). See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its past five games. Read more.

Dickerson’s pick: Bears 27, Vikings 26
Cronin’s pick: Vikings 28, Bears 27
FPI prediction: MIN, 59.4% (by an average of 3.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bears face QB decisions in the possible post-Trubisky era … Kicking woes could boot Vikings out of playoffs if not fixed quickly … Can GM Pace and coach Nagy survive Bears’ downfall? … What does workload for Vikings’ Cook mean for 2021 and beyond?

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 47.6 | Spread: BAL -13 (47.5)

What to watch for: Quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ dominant rushing attack face a struggling Jaguars run defense. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing (173.8 yards per game) and has produced over 200 yards on the ground in back-to-back games. Jacksonville has allowed the third-most rushing yards this season (145.5 per game) and gave up 249 last weekend to the Titans. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: Yannick Ngakoue will have multiple sacks on Sunday. The Ravens defensive end said he’s treating this as just another game, but nobody believes that, right? It was an ugly end to his time in Jacksonville, which included calling the owner’s son (who is also the team’s executive VP of football administration and technology) a clown on social media. Jaguars offensive tackles Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor have struggled against quicker rushers this season, and Ngakoue will take advantage. — Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: The Jaguars have lost 12 straight games, the second-longest losing streak in franchise history (13 straight in 2012-13). But on the upside, they have a plus-74 point differential against the Ravens and are 12-9 in the matchup’s history.

Playoff/draft picture: The Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, per FPI, as their final three opponents are a combined 8-30-1 this season. They have a 53% chance to win out, according to FPI. While they currently have an 86% chance to make the playoffs, they’d be looking at 53% with a loss this weekend, independent of results in other games. The Jags, meanwhile, are projected to take home the No. 2 spot in the draft and even have a 24.6% chance to move into the top spot.

Injuries: Jaguars | Ravens

What to know for fantasy: Jacksonville running back James Robinson and Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs are the only running backs, wide receivers or tight ends to have scored 10 PPR points in all 13 of their team’s games this season. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: Baltimore is 39-0 outright as a double-digit favorite in the regular season, the only team to never lose in that spot. Read more.

DiRocco’s pick: Ravens 28, Jaguars 21
Hensley’s pick: Ravens 34, Jaguars 10
FPI prediction: BAL, 87.6% (by an average of 15.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Who’s the Jaguars’ kicker this weekend? It’s been historic, wacky and wild … Wild comeback in Cleveland: Inside Ravens and Jackson’s dramatic 70 minutes … Minshew expects Ravens’ Ngakoue to be “out for blood” … Taking the 427 hits: Ravens’ Jackson brings fighter’s mentality

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 40.1 | Spread: TEN -11 (51.5)

What to watch for: The quest for 2,000 rushing yards continues for Titans running back Derrick Henry, who has 1,532 yards with three games left. The Titans will try to take advantage of a Detroit run defense allowing 132.8 yards per game. They want to get Henry the football but will be cautious about running him too much. Keep an eye on how they manage his carries and how often he can break off longer runs. — Turron Davenport

Bold prediction: Henry will put himself in a little bit better position for his chase for 2,000 yards after running for 200-plus yards against Detroit, including two touchdowns. The Lions’ offense is matching their defense in terms of injuries, with questions about Frank Ragnow (throat) and Matthew Stafford (ribs), so Detroit’s already-porous run defense might end up on the field more than it would want — which could leave for large holes in the second half. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: The Lions have allowed 21 rushing touchdowns (tied for the most) this season.

Playoff/draft picture: The Titans can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a loss from the Ravens. They haven’t made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since 2007-08. The Lions will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and a Cardinals win, but FPI gives them a 74% chance to pick in the top 10 at the draft.

Injuries: Lions | Titans

What to know for fantasy: Four of Henry’s seven career games with 30 points have come in December (includes 36.2 points last weekend at Jacksonville). See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: When quarterback Ryan Tannehill starts regular-season games for Tennessee, overs are 18-4-1, including 9-3-1 this season. Read more.

Rothstein’s pick: Titans 34, Lions 13
Davenport’s pick: Titans 42, Lions 17
FPI prediction: TEN, 79.0% (by an average of 10.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: What does and doesn’t make the Lions’ coaching job appealing … Titans’ defense shores up season-long vulnerabilities in win over Jaguars … Badgers and Favre — all part of the charmed Wisconsin life of Lions’ Bevell

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 34.3 | Spread: SF -3 (45)

What to watch for: The Cowboys’ run defense can feel good about its performance against Cincinnati last weekend, allowing 101 yards on 30 carries, but in facing similar run schemes to what San Francisco uses, the unit has struggled majorly. The Browns ran for 307 yards against Dallas, the most allowed in team history. Washington ran for 189 and 182 yards in sweeping the Cowboys in 2020. Gap discipline is a must vs. San Francisco, but the Cowboys have yet to show the ability to be sound when facing a zone scheme. — Todd Archer

Through conversations with former players, coaches and key figures, Peyton Manning gets to the heart of football history and its cultural impact. Watch on ESPN+

Bold prediction: Eagles running back Miles Sanders will rack up 70 receiving yards and record his first receiving TD of the season. His prowess as a pass-catcher, on display during his rookie season, faded for much of this year, as he and quarterback Carson Wentz had trouble connecting. Sanders posted a season-high 36 receiving yards last weekend with Jalen Hurts under center, signaling bigger things to come. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: Murray is 9-4 in his career when rushing for 40-plus yards in a game. But he is 3-12-1 when held under that.

Playoff/draft picture: The Cardinals enter the weekend with a 56% chance of making the playoffs, per FPI. They’ll have a 65% chance of making the playoffs with a victory on Sunday but a 25% chance with a loss. No team has a larger potential swing (40 percentage points) in Week 15. The Eagles would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and a Washington win. They enter the weekend with a 6.5% chance of making the postseason, and those chances would jump to 18% with a win. Philadelphia currently is projected to have the 10th pick in the draft.

Injuries: Eagles | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy: Sanders is coming off of his best game of the season (29.6 points), and there is home run upside. But it comes at a cost. Sanders has more single-digit performances (four) than 20-point games (three), with three of those duds coming in the past month. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: Arizona is 3-6 ATS as a favorite with Murray under center. Read more.

McManus’ pick: Eagles 27, Cardinals 24
Weinfuss’ pick: Cardinals 24, Eagles 21
FPI prediction: ARI, 77.8% (by an average of 10.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Eagles lineman Driscoll out for rest of season, source says … The chicken, brat and weather reporter: Why Cardinals’ Pugh turned to a life coach … How should the Eagles approach Wentz? Think Favre … Cardinals find a recipe to win while getting back in the playoff picture

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 97.2 | Spread: KC -3 (51.5)

What to watch for: It’s two of the NFL’s elite teams, both trying to secure the crucial No. 1 seed in their conferences. The Chiefs’ No. 1-ranked offense meets the Saints’ No. 2-ranked defense. Oh, and there’s a chance that Drew Brees could return to the lineup just in time for an epic QB matchup against Patrick Mahomes. There might not be a better game on the NFL’s regular-season schedule all year. — Mike Triplett

Bold prediction: The Chiefs will force the Saints into at least two game-altering turnovers. The suddenly revived Chiefs pass rush had four sacks against the Dolphins last weekend and will pressure the Saints’ quarterback — whether it’s Brees or Taysom Hill — into some mistakes. Keep an eye on Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu, who has four interceptions over the past three games. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Mahomes has thrown for at least 315 yards in six straight games, tied with Brees (2012-13) and Rich Gannon (2002) for the longest such streak in NFL history. And according to the Elias Sports Bureau, his 2,309 yards over his past six games is the most over any six-game span in NFL history.

Playoff/draft picture: To clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Chiefs need a win and losses by both the Steelers and Bills. And the Saints could clinch the NFC South with a win or a Buccaneers loss.

Injuries: Chiefs | Saints

What to know for fantasy: Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been held under 40 rushing yards in four of his past five games, and despite being a fantasy first-rounder, he has just two top-10 performances this season. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: Kansas City has won five consecutive one-score games, though it has failed to cover in all five. It is the first team to win but not cover five straight since the 1986 Patriots. Read more.

Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 26, Saints 20
Triplett’s pick: Chiefs 27, Saints 24
FPI prediction: KC, 55.2% (by an average of 1.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: How long would Chiefs QB Mahomes need to surpass passing records of Saints’ Brees? … Saints just missed on Mahomes in 2017, but reshaped the franchise anyway … Chiefs, Mahomes continue “love-hate relationship” with Hard Rock Stadium … Payton: Brees return depends on how week goes … Turnovers continue to cloud Hill’s future as Saints quarterback

play

Domonique Foxworth and Damien Woody explain why they believe the Saints should start Jameis Winston against the Chiefs.

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 27.1 | Spread: CLE -5 (44)

What to watch for: The Browns have the third-ranked rushing offense (156.2 yards per game), and the Giants have the seventh-ranked rushing defense (101.5). Whoever wins that matchup likely wins this game. — Jordan Raanan

Bold prediction: In teammate and close friend Odell Beckham Jr.’s former stadium, Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry will account for multiple touchdowns in a game for the first time this season. — Jake Trotter

Stat to know: Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield has averaged 9.9 yards per attempt off play-action this season, second best in the NFL. But he has averaged 6.3 yards per attempt without play-action, 29th in the NFL.

Playoff/draft picture: The Browns enter the weekend with a 82% chance of making the playoffs, per FPI. Win and that becomes 95%. Lose and the Browns are down to 68%. The Giants are also fighting for a playoff spot and enter the weekend with a 24% chance of winning the NFC East. A victory would help, giving them a 41% chance, but that number would fall to the single digits with a loss (9%). New York is currently projected to have the No. 12 draft slot.

Injuries: Browns | Giants

What to know for fantasy: There are 14 tight ends who have seen at least 55 targets this season, and Evan Engram of the Giants ranks last among them in points per target (1.22). In fact, that rate is 18.1% below any of the other qualifiers and 29.5% below the average. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Giants are 8-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Read more.

Trotter’s pick: Browns 28, Giants 24
Raanan’s pick: Browns 22, Giants 20
FPI prediction: CLE, 58.1% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: It’s been 25 years since the Browns broke Cleveland’s heart and left for Baltimore … Giants OC Garrett tests positive for coronavirus; Kitchens to call plays vs. Browns … Despite defeat, Browns show why they’re trending in right direction … Nearly two years later, Giants winning the Beckham trade … Giants QB Jones has second leg injury

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Matchup rating: 50.0 | Spread: PIT -13 (40.5)

What to watch for: Pittsburgh is trying to snap a two-game losing skid that has halted its momentum on the season. The Bengals have dropped five straight, have been decimated by injuries and are looking for their first victory over their AFC North rival since Nov. 1, 2015. — Ben Baby

Bold prediction: The Steelers will rush for more than 100 yards. The running game has been nonexistent for three games, but Pittsburgh is facing a Bengals team that gives up 131.9 rushing yards per game. To go deep in the playoffs, the Steelers need a more well-balanced offense, and the Monday Night Football game will allow them to correct their shortcomings in the ground game. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Drops have been a major issue for the Steelers this season. They have 33 total drops and a 6.3% drop rate, both highest in the NFL. And over the past three weeks, they have 14 drops and a 9.9% drop rate. Wide receiver Diontae Johnson leads all players with 11 drops, while tight end Eric Ebron is tied for the lead among tight ends with six.

Playoff/draft picture: The Steelers will look to clinch the AFC North with a win or a Browns loss. It would be their first AFC North title since 2017. The Bengals are projected to have the third pick in the draft and have a 96.1% chance to remain in the top five, per FPI.

Injuries: Steelers | Bengals

What to know for fantasy: Yes, quarterback Joe Burrow was calling the shots, but in the first Steelers-Bengals game, Cincinnati wide receiver Tee Higgins accounted for 54% of the team’s receiving yards. See Week 15 rankings.

Betting nugget: The largest upset in Monday Night Football history is 10.5 points, done three times, most recently by Miami at home against New England in 2017. Read more.

Pryor’s pick: Steelers 24, Bengals 10
Baby’s pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 6
FPI prediction: PIT, 76.8% (by an average of 9.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Steelers receiver Smith-Schuster doesn’t plan to stop dancing on logos … Why this could be end of Green’s time with Bengals … Roethlisberger: No panicking for Steelers amid two-game setback … Recovery of Bengals’ Burrow: What to expect, how it compares to others … Season over for Bengals DT Atkins without a sack