Champions League odds update after round of 16 draw

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The Champions League round of 16 draw was completed Monday and left us with some tasty ties to look forward to in February.

It also offered a slightly clearer picture of the paths to the final on May 30 while helping us easier identify value – or lack thereof – in the futures market.

Best bets

Barcelona (5-1)

This year is the Barcelona revenge tour. The Blaugrana were left stunned by Liverpool’s historic comeback at Anfield last season, which sent them packing in the semifinals. They went out this summer and added Frenkie de Jong and Antoine Griezmann to a side already capable of winning it all, and the return so far has been impressive.

They handled both Borussia Dortmund and Inter in the group stage, issuing a clear statement of intent to the rest of Europe. There’s not a weakness to be found in their squad, and, provided manager Ernesto Valverde doesn’t hold them back, there’s no reason why Barcelona shouldn’t be favorites to lift the trophy in Istanbul. They provide excellent value at 5-1.

PSG (7-1)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this could be the year for Paris Saint-Germain. There is an inherently different feel about Les Parisiens this season, though. Mauro Icardi offers a different dynamic in attack and has developed an excellent partnership with Kylian Mbappe. In addition to arguably the world’s best attack, the French outfit possesses a healthy blend of skill and tenacity in midfield and is incredibly deep at the back.

PSG have been eliminated in the round of 16 in each of the last three seasons but will be overwhelming favorites against a Dortmund side that lacks the “wow” factor. Provided PSG can finally get over the hump this season, there’s no doubt this squad is capable of winning it all.

Juventus (12-1)

Juventus must be coming out of the last-16 draw as the happiest of all remaining clubs, having been paired against a Lyon side that will be without Memphis Depay for the remainder of the season. The Bianconeri should cruise into the quarters, and the sky is the limit from there.

They claimed 16 of a possible 18 points in the group stage and are battle-tested in European football. With an incredibly deep crop of midfielders, an embarrassment of riches in attack, and experience in spades, Juventus have everything it takes to win the competition.

Value plays

Napoli (100-1)

In a competition typically dominated by the European giants, it’s often hard to find value too far down the board, but Napoli are certainly an exception. The Partenopei were one of just six clubs to remain unbeaten throughout the group stage, claiming four points from two matches against the reigning champions. Napoli have proven they the talent in all three phases of the pitch to compete with the best in the world, but drawing Barcelona is seriously unlucky. If they can get past the Blaugrana, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility, then they can beat anyone. At that point, you’d be lucky to get them at anything longer than 20-1.

Clubs to avoid

Manchester City (7-2)

Manchester City breezed through the group stage but the red carpet was rolled out for Pep Guardiola’s side, which was largely untested. The Citizens’ form over the past three months is hardly inspiring, and they’ve looked pedestrian far too often. They feel of inevitability from last season is gone, with a number of clubs producing a blueprint for slowing City’s vaunted attack. This price is simply way too short considering their form and the depth and quality of the field.

Liverpool (9-2)

Having never won the title in the Premier League era, Liverpool’s focus this season is unquestionably on being crowned champions of England. The Reds won the Champions League last year in theatrical fashion, but with their hopes resting on the domestic front, they should be avoided at such a short price. A draw with Atletico Madrid in the last 16 is hardly a welcome sight either, as anything but their best could send them to an early exit.

Bayern Munich (7-1)

At the start of the season, I referred to it as one of transition for Bayern after so many of the old guard departed the club during the summer. Thus far, their results have validated those sentiments. Die Roten sit fifth in the Bundesliga, far from their typically dominant selves. They still have a ton of talent, and much of their success this season will hinge on Philippe Coutinho staying in form, but otherwise, a lot of the new faces haven’t integrated as well as the club hoped. It’s been a bit of a disappointing season from the likes of Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman, and Leon Goretzka as well. On their day, there’s no team that Bayern can’t beat, but they’ve lacked the consistency needed to be taken seriously as contenders, especially at these odds.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.